Not saying you're wrong but.....
keep this in mind. O'Neil has already said that I'll Have Another will be close to the pace. If the fractions are quieter, he won't be afraid to move early. Presuming he does and they get in a speed duel at the 3/4 and late in the mile, it is not outside the realm of possibility for some longshot to be flying late.
Not saying you're wrong but.....
keep this in mind. O'Neil has already said that I'll Have Another will be close to the pace. If the fractions are quieter, he won't be afraid to move early. Presuming he does and they get in a speed duel at the 3/4 and late in the mile, it is not outside the realm of possibility for some longshot to be flying late.
Close to the pace is a different term when discussing races such as the Preakness and Kentucky Derby vs. the Santa Anita Derby and Robert Lewis because of the sheer number of horses. He was exactly where you would expect him in the Derby based on the splits. My point is if he does not show a bit more speed early, he will allow Bode to set very uncontested fractions. I would not be surprised if he comes at Bode earlier if that happens (no sooner than the 3/4 I imagine).
Close to the pace is a different term when discussing races such as the Preakness and Kentucky Derby vs. the Santa Anita Derby and Robert Lewis because of the sheer number of horses. He was exactly where you would expect him in the Derby based on the splits. My point is if he does not show a bit more speed early, he will allow Bode to set very uncontested fractions. I would not be surprised if he comes at Bode earlier if that happens (no sooner than the 3/4 I imagine).
47.11 and 45 and change are a difference of 7 lengths. That is my point. If no one else is coming at Bode, what will I'll Have Another do? I don't expect a duel but I do expect that he won't sit back in soft fractions past the 3/4. I would also expect that the shorter stretch will also make for an earlier move.
47.11 and 45 and change are a difference of 7 lengths. That is my point. If no one else is coming at Bode, what will I'll Have Another do? I don't expect a duel but I do expect that he won't sit back in soft fractions past the 3/4. I would also expect that the shorter stretch will also make for an earlier move.
I used the SA Derby because of the quality of the race. I pay much less attention to splits in races with less qualiy horses.
And one would generally expect a race in a 1 /16 to have faster early splits than 1 1/8.
Again, my scenario is only based on the idea that I'll Have Another Could be forced earlier than the connections woul like.
GL to you too.
I used the SA Derby because of the quality of the race. I pay much less attention to splits in races with less qualiy horses.
And one would generally expect a race in a 1 /16 to have faster early splits than 1 1/8.
Again, my scenario is only based on the idea that I'll Have Another Could be forced earlier than the connections woul like.
GL to you too.
If I can get past the horrific handling (flying all over the country and all the other BS) I think Creative Cause is a serious value play in the Preakness. 6-1 is very square for a horse who easily beat Bode in California and had a much worse / wider trip than IHA last week.
I think he'll be overlooked (of course) and will be getting first crack at Bode & IHA if they don't fire their best shots.
Worth the price.
HB
If I can get past the horrific handling (flying all over the country and all the other BS) I think Creative Cause is a serious value play in the Preakness. 6-1 is very square for a horse who easily beat Bode in California and had a much worse / wider trip than IHA last week.
I think he'll be overlooked (of course) and will be getting first crack at Bode & IHA if they don't fire their best shots.
Worth the price.
HB
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