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Author: [Horse Racing] Topic: The Derby Favorite
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#1
Posted: 4/8/2012 11:48:07 AM

You've got to be getting 5-1 on the 3yo the public makes the favorite on May 5th.  I can't see any scenario that changes this in the next five weeks. 

You'll probably have Gemologist and Union Rags vying for favoritism at around 5-1.  Just my guess. 

I can "imagine" some enormous overlays as well.  Such as:

El Padrino @ 25-1

Daddy Nose Best @ 15-1

Alpha @ 15-1 +

Creative Cause 15-1 +

Mark Valeski 30-1 +

Not to mention anyone that might fumble next week in the Blue Grass or Arkansas Derby.  If Hansen gets beat next week and runs on 5/5, he may be the overlay of all overlays!

Intersesting discussion for the next five weeks.

Happy Easter All!

HB

 

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#2
Posted: 4/8/2012 12:06:43 PM
Love Gemologist, but was impressed by Morgan G. too. Wide throughout and almost held on. I have Gem at big odds in the futures. Can't wait.
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#3
Posted: 4/8/2012 8:44:11 PM
roused how can you seriously say you were impressed with any horse from that garbage illinois derby?? worst 3 year old race of the year! i like ill have another, ran the fastest 1 1/16 3yo time and so far the fastest 1 1/8 3yo time. yet his beyers keep coming back light?? i think he will provide the best value. holy bull i think a 5-1 fave is pretty accurate, gemologist will probably be the fave with his connections and his undefeated record and 2-2 at CD.
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#4
Posted: 4/8/2012 9:00:38 PM

loved the way I'll Have Another pressed the pace-made a move-

seemed to switch gears/leads then came and fought back gamely

this horse is the real deal-interesting to see if they stick with the jock

inexperienced and for all the dough-might have to go with exp jock

no dought about it!   interesting decision from owner/trainer?

 after watching replays the most impressive win by far

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#5
Posted: 4/8/2012 9:02:06 PM
  sorry for all you grammer patrol-DOUBT 
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#6
Posted: 4/8/2012 9:58:12 PM
I definitely agree with the favorite/co-favorites going off at 5-1..............the prices will be nice & definitely big payouts for the triple & super............
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#7
Posted: 4/9/2012 6:34:48 AM
handikapper i thought they woulda switched jocks for the SA derby but they stuck with the kid and it paid off. sometimes a horse is just good enough that it doesnt matter who is riding him. sticking with gutierrez is also why i think his odds will be double digits  and thats fine with me. if stewart elliot can with the kentucky derby then anything is possible!! 
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#8
Posted: 4/9/2012 10:19:53 AM

Guys,

I agree with pretty much all the comments.

I do think the Santa Anita Derby particpants will be overlooked and I wouldn't be surprised if Creative Cause is bet lower than I'll Have Another. 

Gemologist was wide into both turns, but I didn't see the kick in the lane or on the turn I think you need to win the Derby.  He will "probably" be the favorite, but I'm thinking that Wood is going to come up light when all is said and done. 

The Illinois Derby was painful to watch.  I thought my DVR was going in slow motion at one point!  I can't see using any of those horses on my tickets.

Anxious to see who steps forward this weekend, but as of right now I'm not counting anyone out.

HB

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#9
Posted: 4/9/2012 11:19:12 AM

One of the more interesting horses to me right now, and will certainly be overlooked is:

El Padrino.

To date the Florida Derby is one of the more impressive preps for my money.  Both EP and UR closed into what I consider a track that played to forwardly placed horses.  EP was only one length back of UR and if he draws in should be all of 20-1.  The Beyers for that race came up light too, so that will have the prices drifting.

HB

 

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#10
Posted: 4/9/2012 12:09:39 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by angrybarber:

roused how can you seriously say you were impressed with any horse from that garbage illinois derby?? worst 3 year old race of the year! i like ill have another, ran the fastest 1 1/16 3yo time and so far the fastest 1 1/8 3yo time. yet his beyers keep coming back light?? i think he will provide the best value. holy bull i think a 5-1 fave is pretty accurate, gemologist will probably be the fave with his connections and his undefeated record and 2-2 at CD.


Sorry, I won't be betting him, but Morgan ran a hell of a race. Wide all the way around, got the lead too late and staggered home. Just saying it was a good race for his 3rd start.
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#11
Posted: 4/9/2012 3:07:01 PM

  Great points from all!  hope this thread sticks around

so we can brainstorm our analysis to lead to a juicy Tri-Super Payday

agreed past winners always have that needed kick - alot of past winners have come from Arkansas Derby-SADerby

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#12
Posted: 4/9/2012 3:14:36 PM

Mike Watchmakers Analysis Notes:  Derby Preps Monday Thread

Thoughts on Saturday’s three big Kentucky Derby preps:

I agree that if you were inclined to try Creative Cause without blinkers, the time to do it was Saturday in the Santa Anita Derby and not in the Kentucky Derby. But I must admit I still don’t at all understand the urge to try this colt without them. Creative Cause lacks focus. It’s obvious the way he has run in the past. Traditionally, blinkers help address that issue, and blinkers off does the opposite. So I wasn’t surprised to see Creative Cause hang late Saturday, and narrowly miss in a race in which he was likely the most talented horse by a clear margin. Anyway, I lost no respect for Creative Cause, and still regard him as a top threat to win the Kentucky Derby, just as long as he gets his blinkers back in Louisville.

And props go to I’ll Have Another, who was sharp winning the Santa Anita Derby off a two month layoff. At the same time, this was a hard effort for I’ll Have Another, off a two month layoff, and in only his second start in seven months. He seems very susceptible to a bounce in the Derby.

The Wood Memorial was oddly run in the sense that My Adonis was, for whatever reason, in a huge hurry to go after The Lumber Guy early. The impact of this was a quick early pace, Gemologist getting pushed four-to-three wide on the first turn, and Alpha getting knocked back on the rail into the first turn.

Credit goes to the first two Wood finishers. Gemologist was also caught three wide on the far turn, and yet he almost handily resisted when Alpha made a late run at him. Alpha, in addition to his early trouble, was coming off a two month layoff, and yet turned in a far more impressive performance than his two Aqueduct inner track stakes wins earlier this year. I don’t know why, but this Wood made me think of the 2003 Wood, in which Empire Maker handily turned back Funny Cide. But in Kentucky, Funny Cide turned the tables on Empire Maker in the Derby.

Done Talking, whose prior two stakes starts resulted in a fourth in the Remsen last fall and a distant 10th in last month’s Gotham, got himself a starting spot in the Kentucky Derby if he wants it with his off-the-pace victory in the Illinois Derby. I know Mine That Bird only happened a couple of years ago, but does Done Talking really have any shot at Churchill? How good a race could this Illinois Derby have been when Morgan’s Guerilla, coming off an Aqueduct inner track maiden win, has command in deep stretch and only succumbs late? And yes, I liked Morgan’s Guerilla Saturday, but as a bet, not as a Kentucky Derby candidate.

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#13
Posted: 4/9/2012 3:22:16 PM

Looks like Daddy Long Legs is going to be in the field and maybe Wrote also.   They both went 1 and 3/16ths in the UAE Derby finishing 1st and 3rd against good competition in their first race of 2012.   The Kentucky Derby is only 1/16th further

ARTICLE

Gonna be hard to get past Daddy Long Legs race at Churchill last year in the BC Juvenile though.    But Aiden O'Brien said he was "all at sea" for that race last year.

I looked that up and it means "in a state of confusion and disorder."   LINK


Before the UAE Derby I also saw a few articles that described Daddy Long Legs as "well held" in that BC Juvenile.    I guess that means that once they realized he had no chance, they didn't whip him or anything to try and get back in the race.   It's possible O'Brien knew the horse wasn't right and told the jock not to beat him up if he has no chance.     Or maybe he just brought the horse over to get some experience and it was just a workout sort of thing.   I'm not sure but if that race was a fluke or something, you gotta think Daddy Long Legs has decent shot in the Kentucky Derby.  


Gonna be a tough call on that horse if he runs.    I think he's more of a turf horse and thought he'd do well on Tapeta, which he did.  But I'm not Aiden O'Brien.   If he actually puts him in the race, after doing so badly last year, that might be a sign that he thinks the BC Juvenile can be thrown out.    And from that article above it looks like that's what he's going to do.   

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#14
Posted: 4/9/2012 3:41:38 PM

Here's another article where O'Brien is talking about Daddy Long Legs.

ARTICLE


Daddy Long Legs sire is Scat Daddy, who won the G2 Fountain of Youth, G1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream, the G1 Champagne at Belmont, and the G1 Hopeful at Saratoga and finished 4th in the BC Juvenile at Churchill

All of those races were on dirt of course.

He got destroyed in the Kentucky Derby however finishing 18th of 20.


SCAT DADDY RACING HISTORY


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#15
Posted: 4/9/2012 3:45:48 PM
“He’s a beautiful action horse, great mover isn’t he, and got the trip well, didn’t he?” O’Brien said at the weekend when Colm O’Donoghue partnered last year’s Royal Lodge winner.

“He obviously is [by] Scat Daddy, the Scat Daddy’s you’d imagine that they’re all speed, but they seem to be improving from 2 to 3 – the ones we’ve been watching in America – and they seem like they’re going to get the trip, which is exciting really.”

O’Brien said he thought Daddy Long Legs was “lost” first time on the dirt at the Breeders’ Cup and reported: “We worked on that a little bit and he was stronger and more on the bridle here.”

Daddy Long Legs is now a 20/1 shot in some ante-post lists for Kentucky after the Derby picture was turned upside down by the unexpected defeat of the long-time favourite Union Rags at Gulfstream on Saturday.

No European runner has ever won the Kentucky Derby. Clive Brittain’s Bold Arrangement came closest when runner-up to Ferdinand in 1986.



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#16
Posted: 4/9/2012 4:34:33 PM
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#17
Posted: 4/9/2012 5:52:20 PM
HB - yup, the tote should be interesting.  i'm not sure I can trust any of these guys at less than 10/1 if I were to place a win bet.  I am going to play a 6 horse tri box again.  huge tri pool, field of 20, and chance for big payoff.  i'll use six horses to box. 

Not saying I am betting I'll Have Another but there are some things I like about him.  As you all can probably figure out I am a hard core numbers guy and this guy has only run a 96 and 94 in last two.  Those aren't crappy but they don't blow me away either.  But, visually I like the way this guy moves over the race track.  He looks good.  he has a nice, smooth, athletic stride.  I like how he fits on pace and stamina. at 8.5 furlongs and 9 furlongs he was able to very comfortably sit in a nice cozy stalking position and not use up too much energy and then bring it late with solid late speed.  I like that.  he can put himself in a good spot naturally without having to bust his behind.  i could see him sitting four or five lengths back in the Derby and then at the top of the lane he could stalk the leader and then go "all in" from there and see if he can win it all.  in the SA Derby he was cruising along and he had another gear when he needed it late. 

Alpha is interesting as well.  the pattern interests me and McClaughlin is patient.  When he gets them going good he can keep them going.  Very solid trainer but difficult to bet because some of them run very well and then some run up the track.  I have a possible red flag on Alpha based on what's between his ears.  He absolutely should have won the Wood.  No excuses.  why didn't he cruise right on by?  Not saying Gemologist is a bum but the race I saw was a race where Alpha had it all right there.  Does he lack a killer instinct?  What I do like is that all three of his races as a 3YO produced figs higher than his best as a 2YO.  His figs are rising as he rises in class and goes further in distance.  he seems like he has straightened himself out a bit but like I said I am concerned about his personality possibly.  his second race looks ok on paper (2nd in a G1) but he was flat that day he did not run well by my standards.  then he got his teeth kicked in racing in the BC Juvey.  "fractious gate" and ran completely up the track.  but since then he has moved in the right direction.  interesting.  could be 15/1ish or maybe higher.     
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#18
Posted: 4/9/2012 7:20:41 PM
  love it"  keep up the analysis  Good Stuff
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#19
Posted: 4/10/2012 10:18:38 AM

This is a very strange rendition of the KY Derby.  I agree with Atlas, I couldn't imagine making a case for anyone who enters the gate at much less than 10-1. 

I cannot see this week changing anything.  Even if Hansen or one of the Bafferts win by daylight, I would be hard pressed to imagine any of them getting it there own way on Derby Day.

HB

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#20
Posted: 4/10/2012 10:30:16 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Greyhound:

Before the UAE Derby I also saw a few articles that described Daddy Long Legs as "well held" in that BC Juvenile.    I guess that means that once they realized he had no chance, they didn't whip him or anything to try and get back in the race.   It's possible O'Brien knew the horse wasn't right and told the jock not to beat him up if he has no chance.     Or maybe he just brought the horse over to get some experience and it was just a workout sort of thing.  


Forget about all of this.    "Well Held" is just another way of saying "Well Beaten".

Well Held - refers to the fact that a horse was unable to figure and get competitive in a race and was simply 'held back' by superior opposition.


Daddy Long Legs was definitely "well held" in the BC Juvenile.   My point again though is that it's something to think about that one of the best trainer's in the world, Aiden O'Brien,  is going to bring that horse back to the same track and same surface against many of the same horses that destroyed him last year.

Horses do have bad races though, and they aren't right on certain days, and they do mature a lot from age 2 to 3.  

Do we actually think that Aiden O'Brien doesn't know when a horse isn't suited for a dirt surface?    He doesn't seem very worried about it from what I've read.

Might be a dangerous horse to overlook on Derby Day.   And the price is going to be nice.

One other thiing about the UAE Derby is that Graham Motion said "the pace was too slow for Lucky Chappy", who is a huge closer.

Daddy Long Legs was in 2nd all the way to the top of the stretch  right behind the leader Helmet, so maybe he got away with some easy fractions in that race, although I haven't actually seen the fractions yet.    

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#21
Posted: 4/10/2012 12:21:18 PM

Been watching the replay of the BC Juvenile.   A few more things about Daddy Long Legs:    

He had post 11, not a great post in a 8.5 furlong race at Churchill, the turn comes up quickly.

He dwelt in the gate for a second and came out a step or two slower than most of the others.

He jumped a shadow about half way to the first turn.  (that shows you how green he was)

He was 3 wide on the first turn.  (Chart even says so)

He was in last place probably at least 6 lengths behind the pack on the far turn and managed to close and pick up 1 of the horses, who was Prospective, who won the Tampa Bay Derby.   He almost picked up Alpha who finished 11th just a 1/4th length in front of Daddy Long Legs.

Alpha has turned out to be a pretty good horse and should have beaten Gemologist this past weekend if he didn't have to check hard going into the backstretch of the Wood Memorial.


So, make of it what you will.   He was a young horse, a green horse, and he has some excuses.     Watch the replay of the BC Juvenile, it's kind of funny to see him jumping that shadow.   


BC Juvenile Chart

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#22
Posted: 4/10/2012 1:26:36 PM
Daddy Long Legs was at least 2-3 wide on the far turn too and he came off the turn and went 10 or 11 wide.   How much ground did he lose there?    I'm going to try and find the TRAKUS chart for this race to see how far he actually ran.        
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#23
Posted: 4/10/2012 1:26:37 PM
Daddy Long Legs was at least 2-3 wide on the far turn too and he came off the turn and went 10 or 11 wide.   How much ground did he lose there?    I'm going to try and find the TRAKUS chart for this race to see how far he actually ran.        
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#24
Posted: 4/10/2012 8:59:43 PM
I am very intrigued by the prices on the 1-2 finishers in the SA Derby come 5/5.

The Beyer came up light, but something's wrong with Beyer's figures at Santa Anita they are wildly inconsistent. I'll have another went 1:40 4/5 in the Lewis and got a 96. CC goes 1:41 4/5 in the San Felipe and gets a 102. So who knows. 1:47 4/5 is right on line with the pace from the previous 2 races yet the Beyer comes up lighter? Doesn't make sense to me.

CC has a very very solid foundation, yet he is still unprofessional. He fires every single time (his 4 defeats were by 1 length 3 times, and the neck this weekend), but he's still green. They can't figure out if he's best with or without blinkers and that's a problem coming into the big race. At the least you cannot throw this horse out of the exotics. He has never missed the board, has a ton of class, one of the best riders in the country, and his pedigree and running style suggest 10-12 furlongs will be no problem.

I'll Have Another is very intriguing. I love the way CC got first jump on him, yet he still out finished him. Like atlas said, his stride and tactical speed will but him in the prime stalking position that usually wins the Derby without exerting too much energy. I was reading today that he came out of the race excellent, O"Neil said his legs were ice cold and his appetite was great. Solid 1 1/4 pedigree. 10 or 12 to 1 would be hard to resist if he trains well leading up to the race.

Also, the Wood disappointed me. They just plodded around the track one paced. The pace was slow and they came home slower. That said, with Alpha's troubled trip I wouldn't be surprised to see him become the wise guy horse this year...A 15-1 MLer that ends up being bet down to 8 or 9 to 1....
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#25
Posted: 4/10/2012 11:21:55 PM
I don't touch horses from Dubai/Europe on dirt. In my opinion they are over bet and they do not produce. For those who are interested in fractions here they are...
26.13, :50.54 and 1:15.19

If those fractions were ran here we would think it was a low level claiming race. Of course synthetic courses have slower times but Daddy obviously had the perfect trip sitting off a very slow pace.
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