Messages

Forum Index : Horse Racing : Messages Page 1 of 3  1 2 3  
Author: [Horse Racing] Topic: WHY DO HORSEPLAYERS LOSE? IT'S THE TAKEOUT!
sacstar03 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
sacstar03
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 232
Location:
#1
Posted: 8/25/2010 10:20:58 PM

If there was a match race and both horses got about the same amount bet to win, they would both go off at 3-5!  Wouldn't it make more sense to instead of betting $100 to win $60, to ask some fan in the stands "Who likes the horse I don't like"  and then bet him $100 to win $100?   Imagine if you played blackjack and bet $10 a hand.  If you lose the hand, you lose $10.  But if you win, you win only $6!  Those are the odds that horse players face every day.  And in this day of simulcasting and in-home betting, how can we survive a 20% takeout multiplied by 60-100 races.  IT'S VIRTUALY IMPOSSIBLE TO WIN!    Even if you get lucky and hit a pick-6, you already paid 25% to the takeout plus witholdind taxes.  Pick-6 players lose too!  Most casino games have a hold of 5% or less.  Sportsbooks hold 4.5% on a 110-100 wager against the point spread.  But at the track, pardon my language, YOU GET RAPED!  And it's all our faults!  We don't do anything about it.  California, a state that's already in big trouble because they can't get slot machines, is considering raising the takeout even more!  Los Alamitos Quarter Horses recently raised the takeout, their handle has fallen. 

A fair takeout, one that horse players can beat is 10%.  We understand it costs a lot to run a racetrack and supply purses.  But if the takeout is reduced, more players would win.  They would bet more and the tracks would make more too.

I am suggesting you take a look at the "Horseplayers Association" website.  You can levy your rights thorugh your betting dollar. 

Here are some tracks that are trying to help you.  I am suggesting you bet on their races as specified.  The list is short right now and I would hope you send me some other tracks that are lowering the takeout.  These tracks deserve your support.  And if you bet on these races and the handle rises dramatically, others WILL follow.

Here's all I got right now:

Tioga Downs Harness has lowered their takeout to the state minimum.  Their handle has risen fairly well.  A competitor track, Vernon Downs refused to drop the takeout, and their handle has dropped.

Cal Expo Harness has announced a 15% takeout on their Saturday Night Pick-4's.  This is a small step in the right direction in a state that is going the other way.  Los Alamitos upped the takeout 2% and I strongly suggest you avoid betting Los Al races.  But please give the Cal Expo Saturday night Pick-4's a try.  It could send a mesaage to both Los Al and the bigger thoroughbred tracks in the Golden State.

These are examples of the tracks that are trying to do more for the bettor.  If you know of any more, please let me and others know.  And please send feedback!

quote
sacstar03 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
sacstar03
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 232
Location:
#2
Posted: 8/27/2010 10:15:08 AM
I need some feedback.  We can start a revolution within the industry if enough of us care.  So far, no response.  I'd like you to tell me how you win or lose too.
quote
Greyhound send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Greyhound
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 22305
Location: Wisconsin
#3
Posted: 8/27/2010 11:49:10 AM
Definitely a tough game to beat and a grind because of the takeout.   


Whatever you can do to lower takeout , I'm all for it.    Problem is that people have been complaining about it for probably 2 to 3 decades and nothing ever gets done.   


This "revolution" you're talking about is probably never going to happen.   Not enough people care about horse racing and in fact people are turning against it because of PETA and anti gambling groups.


That being said, if you pick your spots, and know what you are doing,  you can make a profit.     


quote
sacstar03 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
sacstar03
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 232
Location:
#4
Posted: 8/27/2010 1:44:07 PM

Greyhound, thank you for your opinion.  I agree that those who don't bet on horses or work in the industry could care less about our sport.  The "Revolution" is already happening.  The President of New York racing admitted that racing can only survive if they act competitive with other gambling venues.  He said the takeout is ridiculously high.  And I've found another takeout reduction, although it's very limited:

Delaware Park has announced that ON-TRACK fans will get a reduced takeout down to 10% on exacta bets.  Great going!  Unfortunately, you have to go to Delaware Park (located in Stanton Del).  The regular rate for off track bets is 19%.  So if you hit an exacta that pays $100, on track fans will collect $110.  The 10% takeout is the lowest so far and is our target for all WPS, and Exacta bets.

Recemended Bets:

Tioga Downs Harness, New York

Cal Expo Harness, CA . . .Saturday Night Pick 4's takeout reduced.

Delaware Park, DE . . .ON TRACK ONLY, exacta bets takeout reduced to an industry low of 10%

Please bet on these tracks and spread the word!

quote
rubberneck
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
rubberneck
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Apr 2000
Posts: 2579
Location: New Jersey
#5
Posted: 8/27/2010 8:21:57 PM
pick 3s 4s 6s and supers  have the highest takeouts-AVOID
quote
gambler315 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
gambler315
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Dec 2002
Posts: 7494
Location:
#6
Posted: 8/28/2010 1:51:09 PM

Sack, I have some questions, comments and concerns as well.

?1. Who da hell are you?

?2. When or where do you post your selections?

?3. What organization do you represent and why are you using Covers as a forum?

Comments

1.Players do NOT lose because of the takeout. They lose because they do not know how to handicap and have a piss poor money management system, IMO.

2. With reduced take outs of 10% as you suggest, most tracks would be out of business.

3. Tracks do not depend on the professional player and focus on the casual weekend bettors with some cheap give-aways and slots. These weekend warriors don't give a horse's putoot about the take out or how much the track makes. They get a thrill for their entertainment dollars and go home happy they had a good time for the most part.

Concerns to follow your response.

quote
sacstar03 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
sacstar03
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 232
Location:
#7
Posted: 8/28/2010 2:47:00 PM

Thanks for your response gambler315.  I'm a horseplayer who grew up in Los Angeles, now live in Sacramento.  I got to bet on some great horses running at Santa Anita, Hollywood Park and Del Mar.  I've always said that the takeout is way too high.  Nobody paid attention.  But the game is changing.  There are now many other forms of gambling available that weren't before.  Horse racing no longer has a monopoly for the betting buck.  And it needs to change.  I don't post selections, I don't really pay attention to other selections, not into changing others' minds or changing mine.  I don't represent any organization.  I strongly believe that WE horseplayers have to DO something to save our sport,.  Ironically, what I'm suggesting, will benefit US, more than anything else.  You said "Horseplayers do NOT lose because of the takeout."  Now in the example of the match race where both horses got about the same amount bet to win.  One could say the race is a "coin flip"   If  the payoff is 60 cents on the dollar instead of dollar for dollar, you're telling me you can beat that vigorish?  Then you are very good!  If you go to the track, how many young people do you see?  It's usually older men, like me, who got into the sport when we were young and when horse racing was the only game in town.  Now there are lots of options.  The younger crowd is turning to online poker.  The take on some online poker games i 1%!  Figuring out how to play poker is so much easier than figuring out horse racing (I'm still learning).  Try taking a newbie to the track.  Wher do you begin?  Learning out how to read the racing form is quite a challenge!  You suggested that a 10% takeout would put tracks out of business.  Well, many tracks are already out of business at a 20% take.  Bay Meadows is gone, Hollywood Park is going, Detroit Race Course--gone.   Ak-Sar-Ben--gone.  Garden State Park--gone.  A 10% takeout would have to produce about twice the current in order for tracks to survive.  First of all, there's too many tracks in operation.  Do we really need winter racing at Aqueduct?  It's the simulcasting era.  We need to put together an attractive product than gives bettors A FAIR CHANCE TO WIN.  The president of NYRA admitted on TV that the takeout is uncompetitive.  Steve Finley of ESPN says "It's impossible to win betting on Horse Racing."  And he covers the sport.   Furthermore, the more new players and new money we attract to the sport, the better it is for us.  Horse racing is kind of like poker.  We are not betting against the house, we are betting against each other.  And a lower takeout would lead to more winners, and all of us playing longer.  If we continue to lose, we will just give up; many already have.   The example of the match race, the player is betting $100 to win $60.  If you bet on a football game against the spread, you would risk $100 to win $91.  Which will keep you in the game longer?

quote
Kurshka
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Kurshka
Participation Meter
MVP
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 16870
Location: California
#8
Posted: 8/28/2010 2:52:50 PM
Sac did you ever go to the harnies when Lloyd Arnold was running the show. Giving out the gold Cadillacs. The place was always packed it was like a party.  Cal Expo ghost town now.
quote
sacstar03 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
sacstar03
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 232
Location:
#9
Posted: 8/28/2010 3:08:16 PM
Yes, I've met Mr. Arnold once, very nice fellow.  Cal Expo used to run just a spring harness meet, they averaged 7,500 a night.  Now with simulcasting and year-round racing, maybe a few hundred show up.  California horse racing is in DEEP TROUBLE!  The northern California curcuit is in shambles.  Golden Gate has virtually eliminated it's stakes program.  Most races are for cheap claimers.  The better horses are leaving the state for greener pastures in slot-machine states.  So, what does Calif do?  They raise the takeout, driving even more fans away.  I kind of understand the move, they are putting that money into purses, hoping to keep horses anchored.  But the handle will continue to drop.  So is there any gain?  It's tough, slot machines probably will not come to calif tracks in my life time.  The Indian casinos are hugely powerful.  They contribute to every politician.  And the politicians have given them everything.  The racing lobby is almost non-existent.
quote
gambler315 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
gambler315
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Dec 2002
Posts: 7494
Location:
#10
Posted: 8/28/2010 4:03:19 PM

Well Sack, until I see some selections that cash or come close. You're just another wannabe to me. I do this garbage almost daily for almost 40 yrs. and don't need somebody telling me how it should be? It is what it is!  Deal with it or play poker and slots. Nothing is going to change other than the demise of artificial surfaces. The game is fine and will survive regardless of any so- called movements to change it.

California racing is going downhill because they can't draw more than 5-6 horses in a race yet they offer a super on the race. The real horse racing always happens in the east because most of the horses are there. You do the math.

We do need winter racing at Aqueduct because the Cali. tracks can't produce enough entries to even field a friggin race. So let's keep the tracks that draw horses and get rid of any west of the Mississippi.

Bottom line: you sound like some kind of a crack pot IMO looking for something to vent about because you lose. Furthermore it IS the Cali. fake stuff that has ruined the game, now you got it spreading east to Keeneland, Arlington, Turfway and Woodbine even. Keep your BS ideas in Cali. Please.

The game is fine if people just leave it alone!

 

quote
sacstar03 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
sacstar03
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 232
Location:
#11
Posted: 8/28/2010 4:16:57 PM
Gambler, I am a gentleman first.  Thank goodness we have different opinions, otherwise we'd all bet on the same horse.  A forum is for debate.  And I agree with some of your points.  Calif racing IS going downhill.   "The real horse racing happens in the east"   Yes and no.  Many eastern tracks have slot machines.  So far, they have really helped the sport survive.  But do they bring any more interest to the sport?  At racinos, handle on horse racing has dropped.  The slots are siphoning away players.  Yet that slot play has helped purses tremendously.  "The game is fine, if people just leave it alone!"  Really?  Handle on horse racing is dropping at an alarming rate each year.  If you go to most any track, 90% of the seats are empty.  Saratoga, Del Mar, and Keeneland can still attract a crowd.  These are shorter meets that attract vacationers.  Go to Belmont or Hollywood Park on a Thursday and tell me the sport is just fine.  None the less, thank you for responding to my post.  And I will not go away.
quote
gambler315 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
gambler315
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Dec 2002
Posts: 7494
Location:
#12
Posted: 8/28/2010 4:34:14 PM

90% of the seats are empty because of the internet. There is NO need to go to the track anymore. I don't. Go to any track on a Thursday and the attendance will be down. Yes, I agree all the yuppie wanna be seen people will attend the big meets but ONLY on the weekends when the big races are run. The answer may be less tracks (no cali, texas,wash and other who cares tracks) and fewer racing days but greed takes over.

IT'S NOT THE TRACKS TAKE IS WHAT I'M TELLING YOU.

quote
sacstar03 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
sacstar03
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 232
Location:
#13
Posted: 8/28/2010 4:45:36 PM

OK, you think it's not the takeout.  I disagree.  I challenged you to tell me how you can beat it when even-money shots pay 60 cents on the dollar.  I mentioned the president of NYRA said on TV that the takeout is ruining the sport.  I've mentioned that the handle continues to drop year after year.  Even Saratoga's meet is facing decline in handle.  I've backed up my opinion.  You haven't.  In-home betting has actually helped the handle, but not enough.  Furthermore, how does it attract newbies?

 

quote
atlasshrugged send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
atlasshrugged
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: May 2008
Posts: 10883
Location: Massachusetts
#14
Posted: 8/28/2010 4:54:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gambler315:

90% of the seats are empty because of the internet. There is NO need to go to the track anymore. I don't. Go to any track on a Thursday and the attendance will be down. Yes, I agree all the yuppie wanna be seen people will attend the big meets but ONLY on the weekends when the big races are run. The answer may be less tracks (no cali, texas,wash and other who cares tracks) and fewer racing days but greed takes over.

IT'S NOT THE TRACKS TAKE IS WHAT I'M TELLING YOU.

 

right, get rid of socal.

Z and Luck will be two of the top contenders in this year's BC Classic and socal doesn't mean garbage.  i agree get rid of the synth.  fields in socal are down because of wealth destruction and fewer owners and groups willing to spend 4 dimes a month to keep a horse in training or to step in and claim horses.  hmmm, other than keeneland and saratoga i don't see any other large QUALITY fields on the east coast or midwest.  unless you mean 13 turds at the fairgrounds lining up for a 6K purse and beyers in the 30's. 

 

Santa Anita Park - yeah it's a dump with no significance.  Same as DMTC.  I'd much rather be at Aqueduct in February and playing 6 horse fields of NY breds with no turf racing.  If the boys in Arcadia install a legit, safe, and fair dirt strip I guarantee you there will be bigger fields at Santa Anita from 12/26 to mid April.  The preps will take good horses from gulfstream, oaklawn, and Fairgrounds as well. 

quote
sacstar03 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
sacstar03
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 232
Location:
#15
Posted: 8/28/2010 5:00:20 PM
Atlashrugged and all others, I the takeout too high?  I will ask any to respond to my next question, and I ask for honesty.  In your lifetime, have you won more on horse racing than you've lost?  My answer:  NO.   I've probably lost $500,000.   Honest answer.  Hope to hear from you.
quote
atlasshrugged send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
atlasshrugged
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: May 2008
Posts: 10883
Location: Massachusetts
#16
Posted: 8/28/2010 5:25:31 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by sacstar03:

Atlashrugged and all others, I the takeout too high?  I will ask any to respond to my next question, and I ask for honesty.  In your lifetime, have you won more on horse racing than you've lost?  My answer:  NO.   I've probably lost $500,000.   Honest answer.  Hope to hear from you.

i would have to calculate.  started in 2005 at philly park (had no clue what TVG or HRTV was) hitting the track at first with 200 bucks in my pocket but after a couple months would go with 600 or 700 and have some fun had some good days and some bad ones did not keep track.  at the time was playing sports as well.  i did bet 3K WP on afleet alex in the belmont with my local which is biggest horse play of my life and really distorted or covered losses from other days.  bottom line:  i have no accounting of 2005 and 2006 but not for alex probably down.  since 2007 i have been playing with a much bigger daily bankroll and am up in 07 and 09 and down in 08 but don't know the overall totals. 

 

regarding the skim off the top:  i look at it as a tax.  the more you tax it the less you get.  i do believe overall handle nationwide would rise with lower scrapes from the tracks.  i also believe we need a national wagering platform and who gives a darn if it is a monopoly.  get all the legit circuits on one platform and lower the take and fees and eliminate this bullshit of a million hands in the cookie jar.  also, install some tvs in sports bars and have wagering there as well.  the reality is you will need slots from an economic standpoint.  the sport itself (not looking at the business) is in tremendous shape i feel given the economy and lower stock numbers.  if we don't get slots from a business standpoint in 20 years all the grade 1's will be at philly park, mountaineer, gulfstream, and the joints with slots.

quote
gambler315 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
gambler315
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Dec 2002
Posts: 7494
Location:
#17
Posted: 8/28/2010 5:33:24 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by sacstar03:

Atlashrugged and all others, I the takeout too high?  I will ask any to respond to my next question, and I ask for honesty.  In your lifetime, have you won more on horse racing than you've lost?  My answer:  NO.   I've probably lost $500,000.   Honest answer.  Hope to hear from you.

My answer= Yes this is what I do. You and any other schmuck that says it can't be done are wrong. Just learn to handicap!

quote
sacstar03 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
sacstar03
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 232
Location:
#18
Posted: 8/28/2010 5:35:00 PM
Well said, atlas. Have you ever tried to intrest a friend to the sport?  Do you realize how hard it is to teach the complexities?  I mean I can teach somebody how to play blackjack in 5 minutes.  A slot machine would take a few seconds.  But racing is difficult!  My friend will look at the screen and ask:  "What do all those numbers mean?"  Or "How do I pick a winner?"   Is there any bookie who won't take racing?  They might not take trifecta bets, but they love taking WPS bets.  I love racing but can't stand losing most of the time.  Hope to hear from others . . .
quote
gambler315 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
gambler315
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Dec 2002
Posts: 7494
Location:
#19
Posted: 8/28/2010 5:53:12 PM

If you hate losing so much just learn to handicap and only wager when value is there.

Here are a couple of givens at this game, every track and every year.

The Favorite wins 1/3 of all the races and the 2nd choice wins about 17% at any track in N.A. That's about half the races on any given day where there is little value which to wager into. I'm no math whiz but I can see 1/2 the races offer no value to me. Then you throw in the races for 2 yr. olds, even 3 yr. olds, maidens,  and nw 2/ LT. It's a crap shoot with these. 

quote
sacstar03 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
sacstar03
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 232
Location:
#20
Posted: 8/28/2010 6:16:03 PM
Your point is well taken, Gambler.  Being selective is a big part of the picture.  It's easier now days with a buffet of options.  I have to admit, I bet on a lot of races from a lot of differrent tracks.  I did like the installation of the synthetic tracks.  One reason is because I thought it was safer for the horses.  Two, it brought a different handicapping element to the game.  Suddenly closers were king over front runners.  And at good prices.  I imagine that's why so many handicappers didn't like them.  But I thought handicapping was all about trying to outwit the other players.  Still tough at 20%.
quote
UL-LAFAYETTEKID
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Heritage Sports |
UL-LAFAYETTEKID
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 1507
Location: Louisiana
#21
Posted: 8/28/2010 10:15:41 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by sacstar03:

Atlashrugged and all others, I the takeout too high?  I will ask any to respond to my next question, and I ask for honesty.  In your lifetime, have you won more on horse racing than you've lost?  My answer:  NO.   I've probably lost $500,000.   Honest answer.  Hope to hear from you.
i don;t keep track but i know i win much more money on college and pro football than the horses which leads me to the fact that the takeout is to high and they need to reduce it to help the sport along ....G315 you can be the best capper in the world but you still gotta have racing luck,,i cannot tell you how many times i have had the best horse and he was stopped on the turn...horse racing had better change with the times unless it wants to go down like boxing as......
quote
Kurshka
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Kurshka
Participation Meter
MVP
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 16870
Location: California
#22
Posted: 8/28/2010 10:24:25 PM
 Memories  Ali on Wide World of Sports. No cable TV. No computers.
quote
Kurshka
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Kurshka
Participation Meter
MVP
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 16870
Location: California
#23
Posted: 8/28/2010 10:34:41 PM
315 was not concerned about the take out today. Who cares what the % takeout is when all you do is give them money.
quote
UL-LAFAYETTEKID
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Heritage Sports |
UL-LAFAYETTEKID
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 1507
Location: Louisiana
#24
Posted: 8/28/2010 10:56:45 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Kurshka:

315 was not concerned about the take out today. Who cares what the % takeout is when all you do is give them money.
stop it kurshkastop it .........................
quote
Kurshka
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Kurshka
Participation Meter
MVP
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 16870
Location: California
#25
Posted: 8/28/2010 11:23:53 PM

I made my peace with 315 a long time ago.

We both have a mutual respect for Roused.

quote
Forum Index : Horse Racing : Messages Page 1 of 3  1 2 3  
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.