Went 5-11 yesterday.Tournament Record to Date: 13-15.
All the winnings from earlier this week, and then some, went down the drain. I'm ridiculously horrible on Saturdays. Was up 4.5 units coming into Saturday, and I just gave my toilet a lot of flushing action. Next time I'll either quit while I'm ahead before Saturday or just keep the betting really light.
Speaking of light, it's best that I stick to calling just a few games a day. (Of course I say this now...)
Typing from phone, so excuse any typos...
Michigan/Louisville o141
Michigan +4
The more I research this game, the more I'm torn. Michigan has its shooting percentage going for them, and they're stingy when it comes to turnovers. Can Louisville harass them enough to get the Wolverines out of their ryhthm?
Beilein is one of the better coaches in the NCAA when it comes to adjusting gameplans for his opponents. I was actually leaning Louisville at the opening line at -1 to -2.5, depending on which book you're looking at. But because I think Michigan can at least keep this close, even with the line moving in favor of Louisville, Im going to take the 4 points.
I don't like that the game is a lot closer to Kentucky, but I think surviving a near plane accident provides that certain? je ne sai quois, or in this case, the uncanny ability to weed out hostile noise.
I'm worried about rebounding. The Cardinals are very good at it. The Wolverines are not. But if Michigan continues to shoot better than their opponent in all three phases of offense -- FG%, FT%, and 3P%, and don't get baited into turnovers, it won't matter as much. They were outrebounded by OK St 40-21, and still win. They had to shoot lights out and barely win, sure; but they won.
I read that Beilein has shown his team tape of the 2013 national championship game, in which Michigan lost to Louisville by 6 points. They've studied it for tactical purposes, examining how the Cards play in zone, how they guard them in man, etc. Both squads play similarly to their 2013 selves, also. With the bigger chip being on Beilein's shoulders, and knowing even more so what he can do to adjust against essentially the same Louisville team, I'll take those 5 points as I think Michigan keeps it close, if not win.
Wichita St. +5
This is going to be a fun game to watch. Tournament experience (Wichita) vs Talent (Kentucky). KenPom and Sagarin both project a 1 point victory by Kentucky. There are motivational factors that go beyond the players on the court, that date back to the round of 32 loss against Kentucky back in '14. The Shockers that are playing in the court also feel slighted with the unfitting seed they were given, as well.
If you care at all about analytics, this is a game between the 4th best team in the nation vs the 5th best, per KenPom. And the 5th best is getting 5 points? Yeah, I'll take it. Wichita St. might even win. But in a game where two teams with different strengths square up against each other, and anything can happen, I'm going to go with the team with poise and experience to, at the very least, keep it close.
Maybe more later, but I'm a West Coast and I have a feeling I'll be sleeping in tomorrow.
BOL, everyone.