Method: As I have explained before, CBB has the highest volatility of any major sport - a large amount of teams, extremely high turnover among
players (meaning we have very little historical data on them), and
wildly varying schemes and styles (you have Citadel vs. Old Dominion and everything between). This means any existing ranking system is extremely fluid, and major upsets happen daily. I've been capitalizing on that fact for two years now.
I cap each game and look for value in the difference between the chance I am giving the underdog to win and the chance the oddsmakers are giving them to win. Because there is no juice and each win is at PLUS odds, I only need to hit roughly 37% to make a profit.
Results: I have 5 days posted as of 1/30/16. If each game is equally bet at risking $200, I am -$90 in posted plays. I'm not going to bother bragging about any unposted profits using this method prior to this, because it really doesn't matter, so as far as everyone is concerned, I'm -$90 five days in. However, it takes one big underdog day to shoot me up significantly.
Saturday 1/30: Fordham +165 vs Massachusetts Iowa State +195 vs Texas A&M Mississippi +275 vs Kansas State Florida Atlantic +220 vs Charlotte U East Tennessee State +140 vs Furmam Denver U +255 vs South Dakota State Illinois State +110 vs Mississippi State Air Force +120 vs San Jose State UT Arlington +230 vs UL Lafayette SE Missouri State +170 vs Austin Peay Colorado State +140 vs Wyoming Florida International +155 vs Old Dominion Kentucky +185 vs Kansas Western Kentucky +115 vs Middle Tennesse State Montana State +175 vs Montana
Method: As I have explained before, CBB has the highest volatility of any major sport - a large amount of teams, extremely high turnover among
players (meaning we have very little historical data on them), and
wildly varying schemes and styles (you have Citadel vs. Old Dominion and everything between). This means any existing ranking system is extremely fluid, and major upsets happen daily. I've been capitalizing on that fact for two years now.
I cap each game and look for value in the difference between the chance I am giving the underdog to win and the chance the oddsmakers are giving them to win. Because there is no juice and each win is at PLUS odds, I only need to hit roughly 37% to make a profit.
Results: I have 5 days posted as of 1/30/16. If each game is equally bet at risking $200, I am -$90 in posted plays. I'm not going to bother bragging about any unposted profits using this method prior to this, because it really doesn't matter, so as far as everyone is concerned, I'm -$90 five days in. However, it takes one big underdog day to shoot me up significantly.
Saturday 1/30: Fordham +165 vs Massachusetts Iowa State +195 vs Texas A&M Mississippi +275 vs Kansas State Florida Atlantic +220 vs Charlotte U East Tennessee State +140 vs Furmam Denver U +255 vs South Dakota State Illinois State +110 vs Mississippi State Air Force +120 vs San Jose State UT Arlington +230 vs UL Lafayette SE Missouri State +170 vs Austin Peay Colorado State +140 vs Wyoming Florida International +155 vs Old Dominion Kentucky +185 vs Kansas Western Kentucky +115 vs Middle Tennesse State Montana State +175 vs Montana
For me, the most frustrating thing about college basketball action is watching a favorite completely choke. It's infuriating. Playing plus odds requires a lower winning percentage and I can invest less expectation in each underdog to win outright. It's easier on me emotionally.
Huge card today where I see a lot of value.
I currently stand at 7-13 (35%), just short of the 37% benchmark for profitability. Today alone I have 15 plays, which should start to reveal more about my method. Good luck all!
For me, the most frustrating thing about college basketball action is watching a favorite completely choke. It's infuriating. Playing plus odds requires a lower winning percentage and I can invest less expectation in each underdog to win outright. It's easier on me emotionally.
Huge card today where I see a lot of value.
I currently stand at 7-13 (35%), just short of the 37% benchmark for profitability. Today alone I have 15 plays, which should start to reveal more about my method. Good luck all!
So, whats your system? Your taking all dogs makes no sense. I tell you right know KU is not losing to kentucky. At the end of the day basketball has to be watched systems don't work plus rules are diff this yr past data worthless. That comes for BOB V. not my ideas. Also Billy Walters. you gotta watch before you play this many dogs. Can't go off systems or stats to pick upsets gotta watch the teams play.
So, whats your system? Your taking all dogs makes no sense. I tell you right know KU is not losing to kentucky. At the end of the day basketball has to be watched systems don't work plus rules are diff this yr past data worthless. That comes for BOB V. not my ideas. Also Billy Walters. you gotta watch before you play this many dogs. Can't go off systems or stats to pick upsets gotta watch the teams play.
VCU was the pick last night Davidson could not get open shots. Easy to make $ off that situation had I watched these teams play. MR. Biggs killed that one
VCU was the pick last night Davidson could not get open shots. Easy to make $ off that situation had I watched these teams play. MR. Biggs killed that one
VCU was the pick last night Davidson could not get open shots. Easy to make $ off that situation had I watched these teams play. MR. Biggs killed that one
This is not a system and these are not system plays. These are me finding value in underdog moneylines and playing them. Value means I find a greater chance the underdog wins than Vegas gives it credit for. Even if the oddsmakers say 20% and I say 30%, there is still value there. There is a difference between me saying these plays have value and saying Kentucky will win outright against Kansas.
VCU was the pick last night Davidson could not get open shots. Easy to make $ off that situation had I watched these teams play. MR. Biggs killed that one
This is not a system and these are not system plays. These are me finding value in underdog moneylines and playing them. Value means I find a greater chance the underdog wins than Vegas gives it credit for. Even if the oddsmakers say 20% and I say 30%, there is still value there. There is a difference between me saying these plays have value and saying Kentucky will win outright against Kansas.
I handicap these games myself (yes, I watch games) and choose value. You made several assumptions about my initial post without really reading it, and you were wrong. VCU/Davidson has nothing to do with this - I actually advised against picking Davidson if you read my post history from yesterday. Again, these are not "system plays," nor are they just picking every underdog. There are over 125 games today and I have 15 value dogs. It's only 12% of the board and on a typical day I only have between 1 and 5 plays.
I handicap these games myself (yes, I watch games) and choose value. You made several assumptions about my initial post without really reading it, and you were wrong. VCU/Davidson has nothing to do with this - I actually advised against picking Davidson if you read my post history from yesterday. Again, these are not "system plays," nor are they just picking every underdog. There are over 125 games today and I have 15 value dogs. It's only 12% of the board and on a typical day I only have between 1 and 5 plays.
Thanks for sharing and I wish you well. I have data mined the last four years of all college games and found the following. Betting all road favorites between +190 and +340 would grow an account. But guess what, not this year, what you suspect I have also discovered, more variability in outcome this year.
There is no replacement for following teams very closely and making decisions accordingly. I don't know how anyone can do that seeing that there are 143 college basketball games to bet on today. In other words capping college basketball is really tough, you have to both love watching a lot of games and then have the analytical abilities of a math nerd. It is doable but it is hard.
Thanks for sharing and I wish you well. I have data mined the last four years of all college games and found the following. Betting all road favorites between +190 and +340 would grow an account. But guess what, not this year, what you suspect I have also discovered, more variability in outcome this year.
There is no replacement for following teams very closely and making decisions accordingly. I don't know how anyone can do that seeing that there are 143 college basketball games to bet on today. In other words capping college basketball is really tough, you have to both love watching a lot of games and then have the analytical abilities of a math nerd. It is doable but it is hard.
Net -$1550 posted using this method. Again, I need to
hit 37% to be profitable. That means yesterday I would've needed to hit 5
or 6 of those games to win. I only hit 3. Today's card:
Sunday 1/31: Ohio State +175 vs Maryland Evansville +160 vs Wichita State California +150 vs Colorado Arizona State +130 vs Oregon
Net -$1550 posted using this method. Again, I need to
hit 37% to be profitable. That means yesterday I would've needed to hit 5
or 6 of those games to win. I only hit 3. Today's card:
Sunday 1/31: Ohio State +175 vs Maryland Evansville +160 vs Wichita State California +150 vs Colorado Arizona State +130 vs Oregon
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