I'm a rookie looking for my best hedge option. If Kentucky wins, I win my pool....about $2100 off of a $10 entry. If UK loses to Mich St in champ game, I'll get 2nd place. So even though I have UK-Duke in finals, I'm okay with Mich State beating Duke, since my odds probably improve.
Thinking I should only be worried about UK vs Wisconsin game at first. Should I just bet on Wisconsin with the +5, that way if Kentucky wins by less than 5, I actually improve my overall position? Thinking around $400, which means my worst case scenario would be Wisc wins, I win about $350. And if Kentucky wins, then I'd do similar thing in champ game?
Or should I bet Wisc moneyline (they haven't posted that line yet on bovada), or should I bet on other teams prop to win it all?
I'm a rookie looking for my best hedge option. If Kentucky wins, I win my pool....about $2100 off of a $10 entry. If UK loses to Mich St in champ game, I'll get 2nd place. So even though I have UK-Duke in finals, I'm okay with Mich State beating Duke, since my odds probably improve.
Thinking I should only be worried about UK vs Wisconsin game at first. Should I just bet on Wisconsin with the +5, that way if Kentucky wins by less than 5, I actually improve my overall position? Thinking around $400, which means my worst case scenario would be Wisc wins, I win about $350. And if Kentucky wins, then I'd do similar thing in champ game?
Or should I bet Wisc moneyline (they haven't posted that line yet on bovada), or should I bet on other teams prop to win it all?
I am in the exact same position as you. I have $80 in (2 brackets) to win $2800 for first or $1400 for second. I have to have Kentucky win to get anything, and I have Duke also in the final. If Duke loses to Michigan State, but Kentucky wins out I still get second.
I decided to let the Duke/MST game roll as is given Kentucky is where all my eggs are. I bet $550 on Wisconsin getting 5 points to win $500. I figure if Wisconsin keeps it close, I will net $420 of profit if they pull it out or lose by less than 4. If they win, my Kentucky bet is gone but I have the $420 profit. If Kentucky rolls, I still have Kentucky in the final. If Wisconsin loses by 5 or less, I still have Kentucky and either push or win an additional $420 for my troubles.
If I hit that first bet, I don't really need to hedge again in the final since I locked in a profit. However, if I lose the first bet, I would have to hedge again in the final in order to ensure I net a profit. I think my play at that point is dependent on the money line (could be juicy with MST in the final) and if I am going for $1400 or $2800. I may do a $1400 bet on Kentucky's opponent on the spread, or a smaller money line bet. Whatever one gives me the greatest profit potential but still offers downside protection.
I like taking the spread bet in the first hedge because it gives me upside and protection vs a moneyline which is only a pure hedge (albeit at a smaller outlay).
I am in the exact same position as you. I have $80 in (2 brackets) to win $2800 for first or $1400 for second. I have to have Kentucky win to get anything, and I have Duke also in the final. If Duke loses to Michigan State, but Kentucky wins out I still get second.
I decided to let the Duke/MST game roll as is given Kentucky is where all my eggs are. I bet $550 on Wisconsin getting 5 points to win $500. I figure if Wisconsin keeps it close, I will net $420 of profit if they pull it out or lose by less than 4. If they win, my Kentucky bet is gone but I have the $420 profit. If Kentucky rolls, I still have Kentucky in the final. If Wisconsin loses by 5 or less, I still have Kentucky and either push or win an additional $420 for my troubles.
If I hit that first bet, I don't really need to hedge again in the final since I locked in a profit. However, if I lose the first bet, I would have to hedge again in the final in order to ensure I net a profit. I think my play at that point is dependent on the money line (could be juicy with MST in the final) and if I am going for $1400 or $2800. I may do a $1400 bet on Kentucky's opponent on the spread, or a smaller money line bet. Whatever one gives me the greatest profit potential but still offers downside protection.
I like taking the spread bet in the first hedge because it gives me upside and protection vs a moneyline which is only a pure hedge (albeit at a smaller outlay).
If you are trying to lock in some profit, just play the moneyline against UK both games. They will be favoured the rest of the way. You can probably lock in around $1k or making bets the next 2 games.
$500 on Wisky and they win, you make ~1k at +195. They lose, you still have $1600 in play.
Bet $600 on MSU or Duke moneyline; If Kentucky wins you make $1k and if they lose, you make money off your $600 moneyline.
If you are trying to lock in some profit, just play the moneyline against UK both games. They will be favoured the rest of the way. You can probably lock in around $1k or making bets the next 2 games.
$500 on Wisky and they win, you make ~1k at +195. They lose, you still have $1600 in play.
Bet $600 on MSU or Duke moneyline; If Kentucky wins you make $1k and if they lose, you make money off your $600 moneyline.
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