After going 13-3 on 2 unit plays during reg season I've managed to drop both in the playoffs so far. The creighton bet was embarassing to say the least. That team is going to be awful next season, I've never seen a team more intimidated by an opponent like that. They were literally frightened of baylor. Things are lookin pretty bleak for the big east right now...
played 1 for wednesday now, going to try and finalize rest of the week's plays by wednesday evening
1.15 / 1
Siena -2 vs illinois st
2 really poor shooting teams here that are pretty solid on D, very evenly matched on paper, but I think the home court advantage will prove to be worth more than 2 points here. Can't trust illinois state to make shots on the road. In their last game away from home in the mvc tourney they were truly pathetic offensively, only managing 48 points and the suspended Lofton scored 25 of them. They occasionally play decently enough on the road but in general just a very poor road team because of that poor shooting so I'll take my chances Siena pulls it out.
Have a huge decision to make with that baylor-wiscy game, I think they will look far more beatable vs wiscy...but they are scary right now for sure...
After going 13-3 on 2 unit plays during reg season I've managed to drop both in the playoffs so far. The creighton bet was embarassing to say the least. That team is going to be awful next season, I've never seen a team more intimidated by an opponent like that. They were literally frightened of baylor. Things are lookin pretty bleak for the big east right now...
played 1 for wednesday now, going to try and finalize rest of the week's plays by wednesday evening
1.15 / 1
Siena -2 vs illinois st
2 really poor shooting teams here that are pretty solid on D, very evenly matched on paper, but I think the home court advantage will prove to be worth more than 2 points here. Can't trust illinois state to make shots on the road. In their last game away from home in the mvc tourney they were truly pathetic offensively, only managing 48 points and the suspended Lofton scored 25 of them. They occasionally play decently enough on the road but in general just a very poor road team because of that poor shooting so I'll take my chances Siena pulls it out.
Have a huge decision to make with that baylor-wiscy game, I think they will look far more beatable vs wiscy...but they are scary right now for sure...
ultimately i found the sweet 16 games difficult to pick and opted to just watch the games, but there's no getting around that I choked not following thru on the baylor overrated angle. Total choke. Goes to show you tho, cant let one game get you off an angle in this tournament. The reasons I thought creighton would beat baylor are applied even more so to wiscy, and unlike creighton, the badgers arent scared little girls
like 1 friday
1.09 / 1
Uconn +2 vs iowa st
Crowd should be largely pro-uconn and I think Uconn's top-10 ranked defense will make it tougher for Iowa St then theyre used to. Also the 2nd game post-niang might be the game his absense shows more. Cyclones are gamers no question though, Kane/Ejim are just tough and Long is real clutch, should be a great game coming down to the wire. Nice to have a closer like Bazz tho, and I trust UConn to get more key stops so worth a shot. Uconn also better FT shooting and signicantly more depth, I think those are also potentially huge factors in this game. iowa st doesnt crash the offensive glass hard to take advantage of poor uconn rebouding
ultimately i found the sweet 16 games difficult to pick and opted to just watch the games, but there's no getting around that I choked not following thru on the baylor overrated angle. Total choke. Goes to show you tho, cant let one game get you off an angle in this tournament. The reasons I thought creighton would beat baylor are applied even more so to wiscy, and unlike creighton, the badgers arent scared little girls
like 1 friday
1.09 / 1
Uconn +2 vs iowa st
Crowd should be largely pro-uconn and I think Uconn's top-10 ranked defense will make it tougher for Iowa St then theyre used to. Also the 2nd game post-niang might be the game his absense shows more. Cyclones are gamers no question though, Kane/Ejim are just tough and Long is real clutch, should be a great game coming down to the wire. Nice to have a closer like Bazz tho, and I trust UConn to get more key stops so worth a shot. Uconn also better FT shooting and signicantly more depth, I think those are also potentially huge factors in this game. iowa st doesnt crash the offensive glass hard to take advantage of poor uconn rebouding
Tough game here, but I like a couple angles for the cats
Major difference going from the shakey baylor zone to the beastly entity that is the zona D. Wiscy spent the past couple games getting easy open looks against mediocre at best defenses, they will have to make a big adjustment now with a zona players hand in their grill for most shot attempts, this is a big factor.
That was a gritty win over that brutal aztec defense by zona, I think zona will fare far better offensively vs the decent wiscy D. I also think Gordon is going to be an animal today, I dont tihnk wiscy can stop him. Miller>Bo in a big game like this. Tough game as Wiscy is no joke, but pretty confident in zona in this one.
It's amazing how perception can change so quickly, even this late in the season. A week ago the majority of people would have been all over zona-3 in this game. Wiscy bombs off on two 80th ranked defenses, zona grinds out ugly win over the aztecs and it's a different story
Tough game here, but I like a couple angles for the cats
Major difference going from the shakey baylor zone to the beastly entity that is the zona D. Wiscy spent the past couple games getting easy open looks against mediocre at best defenses, they will have to make a big adjustment now with a zona players hand in their grill for most shot attempts, this is a big factor.
That was a gritty win over that brutal aztec defense by zona, I think zona will fare far better offensively vs the decent wiscy D. I also think Gordon is going to be an animal today, I dont tihnk wiscy can stop him. Miller>Bo in a big game like this. Tough game as Wiscy is no joke, but pretty confident in zona in this one.
It's amazing how perception can change so quickly, even this late in the season. A week ago the majority of people would have been all over zona-3 in this game. Wiscy bombs off on two 80th ranked defenses, zona grinds out ugly win over the aztecs and it's a different story
^not good call on zona, they just couldnt muster enough offense. Wiscy earned that win
I have a uconn future that I'm not hedging, not worth it with florida at -300 and would still need another uconn win after that. Didnt think they'd get by michigan state however, so maybe they can pull out some more magic, not too optimistic tho , would be more so if the game was at MSG again...
did a few ml parlays earlier in year, was 5-7 - 1.396 u
want to try to get that to around even for the year with this play:
ML Parlay
1.5 / 1.145
Fresno -385 vs siena / Murray St - 250 vs pacific
Siena's going to be tough to beat the rest of this series in thier building, but I dont think theyll shoot well enough on the road to win the first game. I'd be surprised if pacific goes cross country and beats murray, the racers have more impressive wins in this tourney, and pacific struggles badly to defend the 3...murray of course can shoot the lights out, may possibly lay the points here as well
^not good call on zona, they just couldnt muster enough offense. Wiscy earned that win
I have a uconn future that I'm not hedging, not worth it with florida at -300 and would still need another uconn win after that. Didnt think they'd get by michigan state however, so maybe they can pull out some more magic, not too optimistic tho , would be more so if the game was at MSG again...
did a few ml parlays earlier in year, was 5-7 - 1.396 u
want to try to get that to around even for the year with this play:
ML Parlay
1.5 / 1.145
Fresno -385 vs siena / Murray St - 250 vs pacific
Siena's going to be tough to beat the rest of this series in thier building, but I dont think theyll shoot well enough on the road to win the first game. I'd be surprised if pacific goes cross country and beats murray, the racers have more impressive wins in this tourney, and pacific struggles badly to defend the 3...murray of course can shoot the lights out, may possibly lay the points here as well
was pissed about losing that money line parlay...lookin to beat the spread at least one more time. Would obviously like a uconn victory here, but I think itll be close either way
1.09 / 1
Uconn +6.5
Really surprised how many talkin heads/articles are writing off uconn. Florida deserves to be favored forsure, but the pressure is on them, Uconn embraces the underdog role. Uconn completely took michigan st out of their game, they really are getting after it on defense, similar to the gators how theyve played lately on D. The narrative that florida wasnt healthy in the first meeting is being overplayed, they were near full strength for most of the game, only key player out was backup guard Hill, but both teams are different and better now.
I think the biggest advantage florida has is on the offensive glass, which could prove to be backbreaking. Ultimately, if nothing else there's no reason to think florida wont leave the backdoor open at the end by bricking a ton of FT's as they often do. Good chance this low scoring game so 6.5 points valuable, especially with Shabazz on the floor, and uconn's lights out free throw ability.
hopefully both games are classics and uconn pulls it off, gl on the action
was pissed about losing that money line parlay...lookin to beat the spread at least one more time. Would obviously like a uconn victory here, but I think itll be close either way
1.09 / 1
Uconn +6.5
Really surprised how many talkin heads/articles are writing off uconn. Florida deserves to be favored forsure, but the pressure is on them, Uconn embraces the underdog role. Uconn completely took michigan st out of their game, they really are getting after it on defense, similar to the gators how theyve played lately on D. The narrative that florida wasnt healthy in the first meeting is being overplayed, they were near full strength for most of the game, only key player out was backup guard Hill, but both teams are different and better now.
I think the biggest advantage florida has is on the offensive glass, which could prove to be backbreaking. Ultimately, if nothing else there's no reason to think florida wont leave the backdoor open at the end by bricking a ton of FT's as they often do. Good chance this low scoring game so 6.5 points valuable, especially with Shabazz on the floor, and uconn's lights out free throw ability.
hopefully both games are classics and uconn pulls it off, gl on the action
Madness Tourneys: 8-3: +2.36 u (0-2 on 2 unit plays)
Reg seas/Conf Tourns: 119-86-5: +37.57 u (13-3 on 2 u plays)
Side Bets
Money Line Parlays: 5-8: -2.90 u
Big Dog MLs (min. +300): 4-32: -1.93 u
I expect to fare far better with big dogs on the ML next season, I think it's worth it throw a fraction on large underdog moneylines when your taking the points, i barely won any at all this year and it only cost me less than 2 units, I expect to hit some nice outrights next yr. Money line parlays Im probably not going to bother with next season.
I also placed the 3 future bets below before the season:
funny thing is I placed all 3 at the same time and meant to put 20 on uva and only 10 on the longshot LSU, but I mixed them up. I didnt bother adding to uva and was kicking myself when they got the 1 seed. moot point now tho
It really just pisses me off that kentucky is -3 and -150 on the ml, I would like to hedge a little on this game, but the -150 makes it annoying. I see kenpom and sagarin have this at kentucky -1, and with more bets coming in on the underdog, I just dont get understand the line really, seems unnecessary. Uconn wouldnt have it any other way tho
Ultimately, kentucky is scary but i have a lot of confidence in the uconn guards and their insane defense. I will post back what kind of hedge I decide.
Madness Tourneys: 8-3: +2.36 u (0-2 on 2 unit plays)
Reg seas/Conf Tourns: 119-86-5: +37.57 u (13-3 on 2 u plays)
Side Bets
Money Line Parlays: 5-8: -2.90 u
Big Dog MLs (min. +300): 4-32: -1.93 u
I expect to fare far better with big dogs on the ML next season, I think it's worth it throw a fraction on large underdog moneylines when your taking the points, i barely won any at all this year and it only cost me less than 2 units, I expect to hit some nice outrights next yr. Money line parlays Im probably not going to bother with next season.
I also placed the 3 future bets below before the season:
funny thing is I placed all 3 at the same time and meant to put 20 on uva and only 10 on the longshot LSU, but I mixed them up. I didnt bother adding to uva and was kicking myself when they got the 1 seed. moot point now tho
It really just pisses me off that kentucky is -3 and -150 on the ml, I would like to hedge a little on this game, but the -150 makes it annoying. I see kenpom and sagarin have this at kentucky -1, and with more bets coming in on the underdog, I just dont get understand the line really, seems unnecessary. Uconn wouldnt have it any other way tho
Ultimately, kentucky is scary but i have a lot of confidence in the uconn guards and their insane defense. I will post back what kind of hedge I decide.
what a run by the huskies, I managed to withhold any hedge bet on that game until the last media time out of the game, I put a live bet of $100 on kentucky ml+220 , but still netted a G off of it.
Sick season, college basketball is the only sport I bet seriously, so this is pretty much my betting offseason...I'll be back next year to hopefully do some more damage
congrats to all who got thru the grind start to finish this year
what a run by the huskies, I managed to withhold any hedge bet on that game until the last media time out of the game, I put a live bet of $100 on kentucky ml+220 , but still netted a G off of it.
Sick season, college basketball is the only sport I bet seriously, so this is pretty much my betting offseason...I'll be back next year to hopefully do some more damage
congrats to all who got thru the grind start to finish this year
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