SU winners: 17 OT record: 6-4 Record on the open: 13-14
Considered adding Nebraska 2H to my +3, but I'll take the 1-0 and the 4-1 weekend. My SLU and La Salle leans won so hopefully that's also a good sign as I really need to kill the postseason to squeeze out a profit.
Going to try and make lines for each game tonight/tomorrow. Happy to discuss futures
SU winners: 17 OT record: 6-4 Record on the open: 13-14
Considered adding Nebraska 2H to my +3, but I'll take the 1-0 and the 4-1 weekend. My SLU and La Salle leans won so hopefully that's also a good sign as I really need to kill the postseason to squeeze out a profit.
Going to try and make lines for each game tonight/tomorrow. Happy to discuss futures
add New Mexico to win Mountain West (+225) -I had SDSU as my sleeper in the preseason and still really like them, however I don't like their chances to win the conference tournament despite the #1 seed. I think UNM should have been the favorite and I pretty much bet it at 5Dimes until they became it. The schedule matches up well grabbing a Nevada team that I picked 9th preseason likely in the semis, if they don't get upset by Boise State who I liked last season and then really disappointed. On the other side SDSU has to beat UNLV on their home floor and though I think they're a ton better than UNLV it's never easy to do that. If the Aztecs make the final, they'll have to deal with what should be a pretty decent UNM crowd. The maturation of Cameron Bairstow has been almost unmatched in the country and I think he's made the Lobos extremely balanced. If SDSU-UNM is the final then I will have a great number, but if not then there's going to be hedging opportunities as they'll be favored over everyone else (even UNLV).
add New Mexico to win Mountain West (+225) -I had SDSU as my sleeper in the preseason and still really like them, however I don't like their chances to win the conference tournament despite the #1 seed. I think UNM should have been the favorite and I pretty much bet it at 5Dimes until they became it. The schedule matches up well grabbing a Nevada team that I picked 9th preseason likely in the semis, if they don't get upset by Boise State who I liked last season and then really disappointed. On the other side SDSU has to beat UNLV on their home floor and though I think they're a ton better than UNLV it's never easy to do that. If the Aztecs make the final, they'll have to deal with what should be a pretty decent UNM crowd. The maturation of Cameron Bairstow has been almost unmatched in the country and I think he's made the Lobos extremely balanced. If SDSU-UNM is the final then I will have a great number, but if not then there's going to be hedging opportunities as they'll be favored over everyone else (even UNLV).
Eyeing Gonzaga for a 2H play tonight, but no guarantees...
Locked in: Indiana -2 (-110) vs. Illinois -This is not the time of year to be laying points, but I think Indiana is much better than Illinois. The game is in Indianapolis and that is huge for the Hoosiers as they should have a bit of a home court advantage (even with the fanbase disappointed in their seeding). I like that Noah Vonleh played at Michigan as that proved he is healthy enough to be a factor, and I also like the way IU jumped on both Michigan and Wisconsin on the road before faltering when the better teams woke up. If IU builds a big lead early I think they will hold on, but if they aren't ahead throughout I think their opponent struggles to score just as much as they do in the half-court. I am confident in a transition game as that is what IU wants, but I'm also confident in a slow-paced game because I don't think Illinois can execute there. Pretty much a bad matchup for ILL because they can't do what they need to do to score efficiently and will be forced to make perimeter shots in the half-court to win. They've shown they can't do that and I'll take my chances on avoiding a single-point victory.
Eyeing Gonzaga for a 2H play tonight, but no guarantees...
Locked in: Indiana -2 (-110) vs. Illinois -This is not the time of year to be laying points, but I think Indiana is much better than Illinois. The game is in Indianapolis and that is huge for the Hoosiers as they should have a bit of a home court advantage (even with the fanbase disappointed in their seeding). I like that Noah Vonleh played at Michigan as that proved he is healthy enough to be a factor, and I also like the way IU jumped on both Michigan and Wisconsin on the road before faltering when the better teams woke up. If IU builds a big lead early I think they will hold on, but if they aren't ahead throughout I think their opponent struggles to score just as much as they do in the half-court. I am confident in a transition game as that is what IU wants, but I'm also confident in a slow-paced game because I don't think Illinois can execute there. Pretty much a bad matchup for ILL because they can't do what they need to do to score efficiently and will be forced to make perimeter shots in the half-court to win. They've shown they can't do that and I'll take my chances on avoiding a single-point victory.
Love the UNM play. Follow this conference pretty closely. IMO you have them +225 to win the championship game because no one is stopping them before that
Love the UNM play. Follow this conference pretty closely. IMO you have them +225 to win the championship game because no one is stopping them before that
finish strong G...pullin for ya buddy. I hope Florida loses their first game of the SEC Championship to give your Vandy future some life....also save my Gators legs for the big dance.
Tough for the kids to play 3 in 3 days (friday/sat/sun), fly to round of 64 tuesday for mandatory practice wednesday...then play thursday? come on ncaa, get it figured out
finish strong G...pullin for ya buddy. I hope Florida loses their first game of the SEC Championship to give your Vandy future some life....also save my Gators legs for the big dance.
Tough for the kids to play 3 in 3 days (friday/sat/sun), fly to round of 64 tuesday for mandatory practice wednesday...then play thursday? come on ncaa, get it figured out
Love the UNM play. Follow this conference pretty closely. IMO you have them +225 to win the championship game because no one is stopping them before that
exactly what I'm hoping for, can't hate that the lines dropped a bunch since (partly because of me and partly because of smaller openers elsewhere)
Love the UNM play. Follow this conference pretty closely. IMO you have them +225 to win the championship game because no one is stopping them before that
exactly what I'm hoping for, can't hate that the lines dropped a bunch since (partly because of me and partly because of smaller openers elsewhere)
finish strong G...pullin for ya buddy. I hope Florida loses their first game of the SEC Championship to give your Vandy future some life....also save my Gators legs for the big dance.
Tough for the kids to play 3 in 3 days (friday/sat/sun), fly to round of 64 tuesday for mandatory practice wednesday...then play thursday? come on ncaa, get it figured out
yeah I see your point, though I'd like to be the Overall #1 and expect UF to get that with a SEC tourney win. Rest is no joke, no matter how young these guys are, but that schedule doesn't look lovely...
Not likely to get involved with a Vandy future, don't think they can go all the way and I haven't found a way to be profitable with hedging on these things unless that's my goal the entire way (and I'd likely have to hedge all over the place). Do like Vandy and want to back them against Ole Miss/UGA, but UNM is probably my only future
finish strong G...pullin for ya buddy. I hope Florida loses their first game of the SEC Championship to give your Vandy future some life....also save my Gators legs for the big dance.
Tough for the kids to play 3 in 3 days (friday/sat/sun), fly to round of 64 tuesday for mandatory practice wednesday...then play thursday? come on ncaa, get it figured out
yeah I see your point, though I'd like to be the Overall #1 and expect UF to get that with a SEC tourney win. Rest is no joke, no matter how young these guys are, but that schedule doesn't look lovely...
Not likely to get involved with a Vandy future, don't think they can go all the way and I haven't found a way to be profitable with hedging on these things unless that's my goal the entire way (and I'd likely have to hedge all over the place). Do like Vandy and want to back them against Ole Miss/UGA, but UNM is probably my only future
LSU reasoning: -Alabama won the only meeting this season, but LSU is a really talented group that could make a run and win the SEC tournament. I was eying 38/1, but lost that opportunity when the games started yesterday (still gonna look into it to see what I can get). Bama has a really great PG in Trevor Releford, but he will have to chase the quick LSU guards around and I don't think he'll score well. The only inside threat for Alabama left the team and I don't see Nick Jacobs returning today, which even if he was I expect the great shotblocking inside to take its toll. A bit scary because the line is shorter than I expected, I made it LSU -4, but I can see why they came short due to the questionable record away from home. Memphis reasoning: -Trying not to overestimate the Tigers playing at home and UConn has always traveled well to MSG, but Memphis really cares about basketball and western Tennessee is much further away than NYC when a lot of the UConn fanbase lives there. Ultimately I think Josh Pastner has the guards to match UConn's speedy little guys and that's normally why UConn beats you. The futures prices are very different on winning the AAC Tournament skewed in Memphis's favor, think the shots go in at home and we don't have to worry about UConn getting 2nd chance buckets as they don't have bulk nor size for rebounding.
LSU reasoning: -Alabama won the only meeting this season, but LSU is a really talented group that could make a run and win the SEC tournament. I was eying 38/1, but lost that opportunity when the games started yesterday (still gonna look into it to see what I can get). Bama has a really great PG in Trevor Releford, but he will have to chase the quick LSU guards around and I don't think he'll score well. The only inside threat for Alabama left the team and I don't see Nick Jacobs returning today, which even if he was I expect the great shotblocking inside to take its toll. A bit scary because the line is shorter than I expected, I made it LSU -4, but I can see why they came short due to the questionable record away from home. Memphis reasoning: -Trying not to overestimate the Tigers playing at home and UConn has always traveled well to MSG, but Memphis really cares about basketball and western Tennessee is much further away than NYC when a lot of the UConn fanbase lives there. Ultimately I think Josh Pastner has the guards to match UConn's speedy little guys and that's normally why UConn beats you. The futures prices are very different on winning the AAC Tournament skewed in Memphis's favor, think the shots go in at home and we don't have to worry about UConn getting 2nd chance buckets as they don't have bulk nor size for rebounding.
add Kansas -3 (-108) vs. Oklahoma State -Embiid is a big miss, but his absence puts this in play range for me. I was fortunate to keep my undefeated streak against OkSt alive on
Satuday, but KU fans will be everywhere and I like the defensive
matchups. Ellis limits Nash, Selden will slide over to Smart and Tharpe/Mason will
chase Forte around. KU has frontcourt depth to absorb Embiid loss, the Pokes didn't for Cobbins and have been on my fade list ever since.
add Kansas -3 (-108) vs. Oklahoma State -Embiid is a big miss, but his absence puts this in play range for me. I was fortunate to keep my undefeated streak against OkSt alive on
Satuday, but KU fans will be everywhere and I like the defensive
matchups. Ellis limits Nash, Selden will slide over to Smart and Tharpe/Mason will
chase Forte around. KU has frontcourt depth to absorb Embiid loss, the Pokes didn't for Cobbins and have been on my fade list ever since.
add UCLA -2 (-107) vs. Oregon -Bruins better in both meetings, don't buy the UO love here. Oregon playing really well with consecutive home wins I expected, but they will be perimeter reliant and that's not good in
tournament play on a back-to-back. Ducks have nobody on the roster to guard Kyle Anderson without putting them in a major disadvantage on Jordan Adams. UO could shoot the lights out, but Ucla will get plenty of easy buckets and that's always something I prefer.
Road teams won both, but UO's win was misleading due to suspensions of previously mentioned Adams and Anderson as the Ducks at full-strength still needed overtime to get it done.
add UCLA -2 (-107) vs. Oregon -Bruins better in both meetings, don't buy the UO love here. Oregon playing really well with consecutive home wins I expected, but they will be perimeter reliant and that's not good in
tournament play on a back-to-back. Ducks have nobody on the roster to guard Kyle Anderson without putting them in a major disadvantage on Jordan Adams. UO could shoot the lights out, but Ucla will get plenty of easy buckets and that's always something I prefer.
Road teams won both, but UO's win was misleading due to suspensions of previously mentioned Adams and Anderson as the Ducks at full-strength still needed overtime to get it done.
add North Carolina State +2.5 (-108) vs. Miami -Don't get why Miami is favored at all. Best scorer in the conference is on my squad, MIAfl showed they couldn't play against zone yesterday and Gottfried has run zone this year. Greensboro should have a decent amount of NCSU red, especially w/o Duke & UNC until tomorrow. Interior depth is a major advantage as well.
add North Carolina State +2.5 (-108) vs. Miami -Don't get why Miami is favored at all. Best scorer in the conference is on my squad, MIAfl showed they couldn't play against zone yesterday and Gottfried has run zone this year. Greensboro should have a decent amount of NCSU red, especially w/o Duke & UNC until tomorrow. Interior depth is a major advantage as well.
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