How does UCLA handle the skilled Arizona big men defensively and on the glass? UCLA is what I like to call "extremely weak and S-A-W-F-T" underneath. UCLA's big men who get regular minutes are Travis Wear, David Wear, and Tony Parker. None of these guys are bangers and physical players -- maybe Parker fits that description a bit, but its doesn't matter when you average slightly under 20 minutes per game. When your leading rebounder is your PG (Kyle Anderson) and your third leading rebounder is your SG (Jordan Adams at 5.0, slightly behind Parker at 5.6), you are going to be in trouble against teams that can pound the rock down low. Parker may have the bulk to try and help with the boards, but he does not have the lateral quickness yet to really do a great job of boxing guys out in my opinion.
Beating up on USC is nice and always appreciated, but it means nothing in the big scheme of things. Look at the two quality squads UCLA has played this year: Mizzou (lost by 9) and Duke (lost by 17.) Arizona is close to Duke in terms of coaching, team talent, etc.. When UCLA plays a good team, they get waxed. You want me to be excited about wins over UCSB? Northwestern? Sac State? Alabama? Please. This team is not good enough to be given the respect of a +2 line for this game.
Add in the real lack of a home court advantage in Pauley due to the seating arrangements, plus Arizona's desire for revenge given that UCLA beat Zona THREE TIMES last year, and I think Arizona waltzes into Pauley and beats the crap out of the Bruins. Arizona has to be careful to limit the turnovers (UCLA won the turnover battle all three games last year), but Miller is a good enough coach that I trust he will have been hammering this in to his squad this week. If Arizona takes care of the ball, they should roll. No Muhammad for UCLA this year as well, and Shabazz dropped 11, 23, and 18 in the three games last year. Zach LaVine will help pick up some of that slack, but look at the freshman's lines so far against the two quality squads he played against this year: 3-12 FG, 1-5 from three against Duke for 7 points, and 6-12 FG, 1-6 from three against Missouri. Arizona -2 for two units here. I've seen this play from the Bruins before in a nationally televised game -- I know how it ends.
Bet with your head. Not with your heart. My heart says UCLA. My head says Arizona.
How does UCLA handle the skilled Arizona big men defensively and on the glass? UCLA is what I like to call "extremely weak and S-A-W-F-T" underneath. UCLA's big men who get regular minutes are Travis Wear, David Wear, and Tony Parker. None of these guys are bangers and physical players -- maybe Parker fits that description a bit, but its doesn't matter when you average slightly under 20 minutes per game. When your leading rebounder is your PG (Kyle Anderson) and your third leading rebounder is your SG (Jordan Adams at 5.0, slightly behind Parker at 5.6), you are going to be in trouble against teams that can pound the rock down low. Parker may have the bulk to try and help with the boards, but he does not have the lateral quickness yet to really do a great job of boxing guys out in my opinion.
Beating up on USC is nice and always appreciated, but it means nothing in the big scheme of things. Look at the two quality squads UCLA has played this year: Mizzou (lost by 9) and Duke (lost by 17.) Arizona is close to Duke in terms of coaching, team talent, etc.. When UCLA plays a good team, they get waxed. You want me to be excited about wins over UCSB? Northwestern? Sac State? Alabama? Please. This team is not good enough to be given the respect of a +2 line for this game.
Add in the real lack of a home court advantage in Pauley due to the seating arrangements, plus Arizona's desire for revenge given that UCLA beat Zona THREE TIMES last year, and I think Arizona waltzes into Pauley and beats the crap out of the Bruins. Arizona has to be careful to limit the turnovers (UCLA won the turnover battle all three games last year), but Miller is a good enough coach that I trust he will have been hammering this in to his squad this week. If Arizona takes care of the ball, they should roll. No Muhammad for UCLA this year as well, and Shabazz dropped 11, 23, and 18 in the three games last year. Zach LaVine will help pick up some of that slack, but look at the freshman's lines so far against the two quality squads he played against this year: 3-12 FG, 1-5 from three against Duke for 7 points, and 6-12 FG, 1-6 from three against Missouri. Arizona -2 for two units here. I've seen this play from the Bruins before in a nationally televised game -- I know how it ends.
Bet with your head. Not with your heart. My heart says UCLA. My head says Arizona.
They are very efficient with the ball (fourth best assist to turn over ratio) and they can score... Vegas must figure they can limit turn overs and make AZ run with em... This line looks to be luring in AZ money. Im going to be on the other side with UCLA but good luck man.
They are very efficient with the ball (fourth best assist to turn over ratio) and they can score... Vegas must figure they can limit turn overs and make AZ run with em... This line looks to be luring in AZ money. Im going to be on the other side with UCLA but good luck man.
I am a Cat fan and this year's team looks really good all around. They have trouble 1H against smaller and quicker teams but they always rebound (literally and figuratively) in the 2H. Look at the Michigan game. Down 11 at the half, AZ shut down Mich 3 pt shots (only 2 for 4 in 2H ) and used their size to crash the boards. I don't think it's going to be a blowout because UCLA is home and UA has trouble with teams with quick guards that can shoot. Cats hopefully by 3.
I am a Cat fan and this year's team looks really good all around. They have trouble 1H against smaller and quicker teams but they always rebound (literally and figuratively) in the 2H. Look at the Michigan game. Down 11 at the half, AZ shut down Mich 3 pt shots (only 2 for 4 in 2H ) and used their size to crash the boards. I don't think it's going to be a blowout because UCLA is home and UA has trouble with teams with quick guards that can shoot. Cats hopefully by 3.
The only real argument you will hear is from contrarian bettors who simply want to be on what they perceive as the 'sharp' side of things. Basically a fade the masses mentality that was profitable about 6 years ago.
The other side to UCLA would be the position that UCLA won there last three meeting between the two; essentially UCLA has their number lately. This tends to happen in runs, case in point would be Miami over UNC lately. Also, Arizona has failed to meet a team with so much offensive firepower and up and down tempo. Arizona has started on some games pretty slow as well, and that may be bad if they do on UCLA...
That said, I was thoroughly impressed with Zona's comeback and gritty win at Michy. Shows they can play (and grind out) in tough road conditions.
The only real argument you will hear is from contrarian bettors who simply want to be on what they perceive as the 'sharp' side of things. Basically a fade the masses mentality that was profitable about 6 years ago.
The other side to UCLA would be the position that UCLA won there last three meeting between the two; essentially UCLA has their number lately. This tends to happen in runs, case in point would be Miami over UNC lately. Also, Arizona has failed to meet a team with so much offensive firepower and up and down tempo. Arizona has started on some games pretty slow as well, and that may be bad if they do on UCLA...
That said, I was thoroughly impressed with Zona's comeback and gritty win at Michy. Shows they can play (and grind out) in tough road conditions.
I'm a UCLA guy. I'm seeing them launching nothing but 3's and long range 2's all game long. If they get hot they'll hang for the first half just like vs Duke, but it will definitely catch up with em.
I'm a UCLA guy. I'm seeing them launching nothing but 3's and long range 2's all game long. If they get hot they'll hang for the first half just like vs Duke, but it will definitely catch up with em.
Nice writeup Kap. You make some great points and I agree with all of it.
However, the one thing that concerns me about this AZ team is that they
don't have much depth. They have two very good bench players, but neither is a big man. When AZ loses it's first game, it will be because their bigs,
(Ashley and Tarc) get into foul trouble. If there are homer refs in the
house tonight, the Cats could be in for a fight. But, if the refs don't save
UCLA, this game will be over by halftime.
The talent level on these two teams isn't even close. The Cats play 7
players.... 5 of them will play in the NBA. That's how good these
guys are. And Miller has sold them on the fact that defense wins championships.
They play defense for 40 minutes and they pride themselves on defensive
statistics. I was a student at AZ in 1997 when we won the national
championship.... This years team is even better. But again, depth is a concern
and foul trouble on the bigs is the way to beat them. I'll take my chances that
they stay out of foul trouble.
Nice writeup Kap. You make some great points and I agree with all of it.
However, the one thing that concerns me about this AZ team is that they
don't have much depth. They have two very good bench players, but neither is a big man. When AZ loses it's first game, it will be because their bigs,
(Ashley and Tarc) get into foul trouble. If there are homer refs in the
house tonight, the Cats could be in for a fight. But, if the refs don't save
UCLA, this game will be over by halftime.
The talent level on these two teams isn't even close. The Cats play 7
players.... 5 of them will play in the NBA. That's how good these
guys are. And Miller has sold them on the fact that defense wins championships.
They play defense for 40 minutes and they pride themselves on defensive
statistics. I was a student at AZ in 1997 when we won the national
championship.... This years team is even better. But again, depth is a concern
and foul trouble on the bigs is the way to beat them. I'll take my chances that
they stay out of foul trouble.
Last year LOUISVILLE played 7 players 196 out of 200 minutes and the year b4 KENTUCKY played 7 players 196 out of 200 minutes. LOU had 3 key players with 4 fouls each and still won. I think defense and FTs are going to win this game. If AZ chokes at the FT line, which they have yet to do, they will win by 3-7 pts. Hope I didn't jinx it!!!
This team is of a different horse this year. Zeus has lost 30 lbs. and is quicker, although he doesn't like to keep the ball over his head, out of reach, which drives me insane.
Gordon was like a dream come true. I can see him as a "mini- Bird" as in Larry in the NBA. He is the best all around player that I have seen at AZ. I can't believe he is a freshman!!!
They have very few dumb turnovers e.g. dribbling off foot, holding the ball too long or brainless passes. They run plays the way coach designs them and lastly, they can play a swarming, suffocating defense.
I really didn't think they were going to beat MICH but they came back to win. I think they sent a message to CBB that they are a team to be reckoned with.
Notwithstanding, this team needs to lose. I say that because it happens with all good teams and will make them better. It might happen tonight. Bad calls or bad NO calls, bad breaks, foul trouble. Who knows...
Last year LOUISVILLE played 7 players 196 out of 200 minutes and the year b4 KENTUCKY played 7 players 196 out of 200 minutes. LOU had 3 key players with 4 fouls each and still won. I think defense and FTs are going to win this game. If AZ chokes at the FT line, which they have yet to do, they will win by 3-7 pts. Hope I didn't jinx it!!!
This team is of a different horse this year. Zeus has lost 30 lbs. and is quicker, although he doesn't like to keep the ball over his head, out of reach, which drives me insane.
Gordon was like a dream come true. I can see him as a "mini- Bird" as in Larry in the NBA. He is the best all around player that I have seen at AZ. I can't believe he is a freshman!!!
They have very few dumb turnovers e.g. dribbling off foot, holding the ball too long or brainless passes. They run plays the way coach designs them and lastly, they can play a swarming, suffocating defense.
I really didn't think they were going to beat MICH but they came back to win. I think they sent a message to CBB that they are a team to be reckoned with.
Notwithstanding, this team needs to lose. I say that because it happens with all good teams and will make them better. It might happen tonight. Bad calls or bad NO calls, bad breaks, foul trouble. Who knows...
I'm a UCLA guy. I'm seeing them launching nothing but 3's and long range 2's all game long. If they get hot they'll hang for the first half just like vs Duke, but it will definitely catch up with em.
I agree. I will bet UCLA 1H and then go from there.
I'm a UCLA guy. I'm seeing them launching nothing but 3's and long range 2's all game long. If they get hot they'll hang for the first half just like vs Duke, but it will definitely catch up with em.
I agree. I will bet UCLA 1H and then go from there.
Gordon, Ashley, and Tarc will all be first round picks (if not lottery) when they declare. And Johnson and Hollis-Jefferson will both get a chance to play at the next level.
Gordon, Ashley, and Tarc will all be first round picks (if not lottery) when they declare. And Johnson and Hollis-Jefferson will both get a chance to play at the next level.
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