Wanted to look at this game cuz I am high on SMU this year, but I saw what many others bettors have seen (84% on WY at spy but only 251 bets total so major grain of salt)
WY is at home, better SOS so far, tough style of gridlock forcing teams to defend for a while, get to the line at a good clip, shoot better FT %, have more experience.
SMU will win battle of boards, but are wicked turnover prone. They have a decided height advantage.
I think the steam is right. WY -2
UCSB @ Utah ST -3
Rematch from a 7 pt Utah st win at UCSB earlier. While UCSB has a much better SOS, this is a good matchup for Utah St...again. The outrebounded them 11-4 on the offensive glass, but UCSB had a +3 TO = 4 more possessions for Utah st in the 7 pt win. UCSB lives and dies with the three. Utah st is 9th, only allowing 26.4%, UCSB hit 33% in the first meeting. Another short home fav, this one at some altitude.If UCSB gets hot from three, they win. But I like fading jumpshooting teams on the road. Utah St -3 it is.
Wanted to look at this game cuz I am high on SMU this year, but I saw what many others bettors have seen (84% on WY at spy but only 251 bets total so major grain of salt)
WY is at home, better SOS so far, tough style of gridlock forcing teams to defend for a while, get to the line at a good clip, shoot better FT %, have more experience.
SMU will win battle of boards, but are wicked turnover prone. They have a decided height advantage.
I think the steam is right. WY -2
UCSB @ Utah ST -3
Rematch from a 7 pt Utah st win at UCSB earlier. While UCSB has a much better SOS, this is a good matchup for Utah St...again. The outrebounded them 11-4 on the offensive glass, but UCSB had a +3 TO = 4 more possessions for Utah st in the 7 pt win. UCSB lives and dies with the three. Utah st is 9th, only allowing 26.4%, UCSB hit 33% in the first meeting. Another short home fav, this one at some altitude.If UCSB gets hot from three, they win. But I like fading jumpshooting teams on the road. Utah St -3 it is.
FL off two big wins, and now plays lowly Fresno, who should hit enough threes to stay within the number. Playing the letdown angle.
Marq vs NM in Vegas. Marq -2.
Like the dog here due to familiarity playing in Vegas (MWC tourney held there every year), FT%, NM scores from line, and it looks like tough sledding for an offensively challenged MARQ squad.
Got lucky last night with Utah St.
WY lost battle of boards by 5, but also did not force TO, and were -1 there. Made it to the line 21 times, vs 14. And SMU didn't even try many three's. Game was tied with 4 to play and SMU executed better down the stretch - hit a huge three and never looked back.
A note: this is the second time I have seen a turnover prone team play a team which does not force turnovers (KS v. NM was the last one) and the turnovers haven't happened.
FL off two big wins, and now plays lowly Fresno, who should hit enough threes to stay within the number. Playing the letdown angle.
Marq vs NM in Vegas. Marq -2.
Like the dog here due to familiarity playing in Vegas (MWC tourney held there every year), FT%, NM scores from line, and it looks like tough sledding for an offensively challenged MARQ squad.
Got lucky last night with Utah St.
WY lost battle of boards by 5, but also did not force TO, and were -1 there. Made it to the line 21 times, vs 14. And SMU didn't even try many three's. Game was tied with 4 to play and SMU executed better down the stretch - hit a huge three and never looked back.
A note: this is the second time I have seen a turnover prone team play a team which does not force turnovers (KS v. NM was the last one) and the turnovers haven't happened.
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