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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: 1st half, 2nd half OVER UNDER theory - all tourney long
ArmandoP send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#51
Posted: 3/19/2013 10:05:33 AM
Also needed to request access to Google Docs. I'm gonna go for broke here. Don't have the bankroll as you guys. Might just bet $55 per 1st half or maybe $100. Haven't decided yet. Let's hope we make some monster cash. Just need to stick with the system. 
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GIANFRANCO1114 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#52
Posted: 3/19/2013 10:07:22 AM

listen noone should ever bet over their head

i got lucky and had an amazing run last week

so i have some cash to play with for the madness

if it goes as LY - even $10 would make some cash

BOL and i accepted all requests to see this

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#53
Posted: 3/19/2013 10:13:52 AM
mister GF114....I don't know what is going on but you got me so pump up I am jumping with $ 300 each...may we kick our man's in his left nut all your plays.
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#54
Posted: 3/19/2013 10:14:21 AM
fyi- on the spreadsheet there is a 2012 and a 2013 tab at the bottom so you can see both yrs
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Posted: 3/19/2013 10:15:20 AM
QUOTE

i am hoping s my friend, BOL to us all during the madness

 

Originally Posted by alannguyen:

mister GF114....I don't know what is going on but you got me so pump up I am jumping with $ 300 each...may we kick our man's in his left nut all your plays.

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#56
Posted: 3/19/2013 10:16:41 AM
i want to try your theory. Please accept my request to your google doc.

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#57
Posted: 3/19/2013 10:19:11 AM
i accepted all requests. dont see any in there now.
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#58
Posted: 3/19/2013 10:39:46 AM
i did this last year but a little different. and that is my plan this year. at least for first round.  i do first half under and full game over on each game.  i hit 6 on friday last week.  i noticed last year the first round i killed it then it came back to earth so its great for thursday and friday but trend carefully on sat and sun.  
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#59
Posted: 3/19/2013 2:21:54 PM
BOL JASOND!
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#60
Posted: 3/19/2013 4:23:43 PM
you to Gian.  i think we got a good shot of hitting one or two between the four play in games
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#61
Posted: 3/19/2013 4:44:00 PM
i agree
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#62
Posted: 3/19/2013 4:47:03 PM
Is there a certain game u pick or do u bet all the games 
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#63
Posted: 3/19/2013 4:57:55 PM

for this years tournament i am doing every game

i went back and look at LY tournament and if i would have done then, which i didnt, i wouldve made 10,800

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#64
Posted: 3/19/2013 5:10:07 PM
Man that's a lot of games to be betting on. I used this theory before but I only bet on the televised games and made a good profit on it. The only difference between your theory and the one I used was if 1h didn't go under u double up 2h on the under 
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#65
Posted: 3/19/2013 5:12:35 PM

we shall see BOL either way, my friend

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#66
Posted: 3/19/2013 5:32:54 PM
I'm gonna roll with ya for the play in games today and tomorrow. Lets sit back and see this system work!! GL
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#67
Posted: 3/19/2013 5:41:38 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by GIANFRANCO1114:

Ok, gents. This is what I am going to do. Every game starting TUES all the way thru the national championship I am betting UNDER in the first half and OVER in the 2nd half. The UNDER on the 1st half will always be for $500. The OVER bet for the 2nd half will vary on the outcome of the 1st half.

1st half UNDER for $500....

if it wins I will bet 2H OVER for 200.

if it pushes or loses I will bet 2H OVER for 750.

Reasoning: Teams come out nervous obviously, and need to feel out the other team cause in most tourney games they are not familiar with the opponent.

2nd half most of the time, has alot more scoring as nerves are gone, halftime adjustments, and ofcourse, the foul shots at the end in a semi-close game.

Will post picks on here throughout. You may tail or fade, doesnt matter to me. But made a nice chunk of change doing this for the conference tourney games.

Either way, best of luck to all and enjoy the madness.



You started out with this post, saying that tournament teams start out tight.  The issue with that is, a hand full of posts later, you are checking to see how the theory would have worked last year.  You used a faulty scheme to measure the halftime totals.  1st half and 2nd half lines do not hold true to the game total numbers.  There is always a ball park of where a line will open but half totals don't always follow it dead on.  

Now you are on track with the right idea though. You are just getting there in the worst way possible.  Taking 1H unders on every game is just a waste of time and more importantly money.  Let's say your faulty lines were spot on for both halves, you are only going 21-13 in the 1st round of the tourney.  Each win may have been a basket going in or out, too many losses and plays for a system.  The best system is the under 1H, bet 2H over.  Your faulty numbers say it went 10-3.  So it goes from a 61% system play for 1st halves to 76% system play for 2nd halves.  The real money is in the 2nd halves.  I run a system where if the 1st half total goes under by 12+ points, I automatically take the 2H over.  It hits throughout the season around 72%.  

If you want to make the most money and bet smart, you do not bet with a shot in the dark that these games will play to the under across the board.  61% has no value.  The value is betting up the 2H at 76%.  

So like I said before, your numbers and lines mean nothing since they weren't true lines.  At the same time, you were on the right track.

Good Luck over the next few weeks
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#68
Posted: 3/19/2013 6:04:50 PM
Dajal10 I agree with what you say about the 2 nd 1/2 being a better bet. But my question is the 12 point difference .....If the game total is around 120 like the Bama game or around 160 like the Oakland game. I would think a certain % would work better!! Have you seen a tread .......if a lower total cashs more. Thanks for bringing up a good angle and GL on your games.
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#69
Posted: 3/19/2013 6:08:50 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Dajal10:



You started out with this post, saying that tournament teams start out tight.  The issue with that is, a hand full of posts later, you are checking to see how the theory would have worked last year.  You used a faulty scheme to measure the halftime totals.  1st half and 2nd half lines do not hold true to the game total numbers.  There is always a ball park of where a line will open but half totals don't always follow it dead on.  

Now you are on track with the right idea though. You are just getting there in the worst way possible.  Taking 1H unders on every game is just a waste of time and more importantly money.  Let's say your faulty lines were spot on for both halves, you are only going 21-13 in the 1st round of the tourney.  Each win may have been a basket going in or out, too many losses and plays for a system.  The best system is the under 1H, bet 2H over.  Your faulty numbers say it went 10-3.  So it goes from a 61% system play for 1st halves to 76% system play for 2nd halves.  The real money is in the 2nd halves.  I run a system where if the 1st half total goes under by 12+ points, I automatically take the 2H over.  It hits throughout the season around 72%.  

If you want to make the most money and bet smart, you do not bet with a shot in the dark that these games will play to the under across the board.  61% has no value.  The value is betting up the 2H at 76%.  

So like I said before, your numbers and lines mean nothing since they weren't true lines.  At the same time, you were on the right track.

Good Luck over the next few weeks

i appreciate your response

BOL this week

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#70
Posted: 3/19/2013 7:36:23 PM

1H UN 0-1 -550

Ticket#:19548064
Mar 19 07:50 PM
INTERNET / -1 Mar 19 07:33 PM
CBB
STRAIGHT BET
[2540] TOTAL u71½-110
(2H LIBERTY vrs 2H N. CAROLINA A&T)

1100 / 1000

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#71
Posted: 3/19/2013 7:53:59 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 11spread11:

Dajal10 I agree with what you say about the 2 nd 1/2 being a better bet. But my question is the 12 point difference .....If the game total is around 120 like the Bama game or around 160 like the Oakland game. I would think a certain % would work better!! Have you seen a tread .......if a lower total cashs more. Thanks for bringing up a good angle and GL on your games.


There has been really no discernible difference at all.  I was surprised since I went into it thinking that the larger game lines (145+) that had low 1st half totals, would have been the best bet.  My thinking was that Vegas is usually right based on pace and that the overall total would correct itself with a bigger 2nd half.  Surprise, surprise.  Still in the 70-75% range.  

I use this system throughout the whole season.  When it comes to the tourney, I am not sure how I will play it yet.  (I have held off using it the past 3 years in the tournaments.)  I will probably do a cold run this year and work out the right formula then back test it on the past 5 years.
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#72
Posted: 3/19/2013 9:57:40 PM
Thanks D 10 I could be looking at it wrong but..... Using your angle so far tonight you would be 1-0 a winner on Flor. St. Correct me if I'm wrong but if u played that so far......100%. Good start give us a final # if I would
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#73
Posted: 3/19/2013 10:15:23 PM

NO 2ND HALF BET ON MDTS and STMARYS

1H UN 1-1 -50

2H UN 0-1 -1100

OVERALL -1150

lost 2h in 1st game by .5 point

oh well - see ya guys 2moro

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#74
Posted: 3/19/2013 10:16:32 PM

not betting it but would lean MDTS and/or OVER the 68

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#75
Posted: 3/19/2013 10:52:11 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 11spread11:

Thanks D 10 I could be looking at it wrong but..... Using your angle so far tonight you would be 1-0 a winner on Flor. St. Correct me if I'm wrong but if u played that so far......100%. Good start give us a final # if I would


Yes sir...1-0 on the night.  

I am going to cap the tournaments at a 10-point difference.  Meaning if the 1H goes UNDER by double digits, I will be doing the 2H OVER.  I am decreasing the number since these games are do or die for their season.  I expect most teams to play through the end for the most part, so the ends of 2nd halves should have decent fouling.  I will be starting a thread for this system.

FYI-St Mary's/Midd Tenn St Over 66.5 was a play as well
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