Posted: 3/19/2013 5:41:38 PM
Originally Posted by GIANFRANCO1114
Ok, gents. This is what I am going to do. Every game starting TUES all the way thru the national championship I am betting UNDER in the first half and OVER in the 2nd half. The UNDER on the 1st half will always be for $500. The OVER bet for the 2nd half will vary on the outcome of the 1st half.
1st half UNDER for $500....
if it wins I will bet 2H OVER for 200.
if it pushes or loses I will bet 2H OVER for 750.
Reasoning: Teams come out nervous obviously, and need to feel out the other team cause in most tourney games they are not familiar with the opponent.
2nd half most of the time, has alot more scoring as nerves are gone, halftime adjustments, and ofcourse, the foul shots at the end in a semi-close game.
Will post picks on here throughout. You may tail or fade, doesnt matter to me. But made a nice chunk of change doing this for the conference tourney games.
Either way, best of luck to all and enjoy the madness.
You started out with this post, saying that tournament teams start out tight. The issue with that is, a hand full of posts later, you are checking to see how the theory would have worked last year. You used a faulty scheme to measure the halftime totals. 1st half and 2nd half lines do not hold true to the game total numbers. There is always a ball park of where a line will open but half totals don't always follow it dead on.
Now you are on track with the right idea though. You are just getting there in the worst way possible. Taking 1H unders on every game is just a waste of time and more importantly money. Let's say your faulty lines were spot on for both halves, you are only going 21-13 in the 1st round of the tourney. Each win may have been a basket going in or out, too many losses and plays for a system. The best system is the under 1H, bet 2H over. Your faulty numbers say it went 10-3. So it goes from a 61% system play for 1st halves to 76% system play for 2nd halves. The real money is in the 2nd halves. I run a system where if the 1st half total goes under by 12+ points, I automatically take the 2H over. It hits throughout the season around 72%.
If you want to make the most money and bet smart, you do not bet with a shot in the dark that these games will play to the under across the board. 61% has no value. The value is betting up the 2H at 76%.
So like I said before, your numbers and lines mean nothing since they weren't true lines. At the same time, you were on the right track.
Good Luck over the next few weeks