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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: NCAA - 15 REASONS TO NOT BUY POINTS IN BASKETBALL - STATS, PROBABILITIES AND REASONS
TexasD send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
TexasD
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#1
Posted: 2/2/2013 3:57:56 PM
Last 5 Days of Data to be Added to Overall Stats:

Monday, January 28, 2013 through Friday, February 1, 2013

118 Games
236 Teams
0 Pushes on Original Spread
37 Games Finished 0.5 to 3 points From Original Spread

Virginia -0.5
Miami (OH) -0.5
Miami -0.5
Appalachian St. -0.5
Arizona -0.5
San Jose St. -0.5
Iona -0.5
Samford -0.5
Youngstown St. -0.5
Northern Iowa -1
UNLV -1
Temple -1
FSU -1
St. Peters -1
Montana St. -1
Rider -1
Will & Mary -1.5
Nebraska -1.5
Memphis -1.5
S. Florida -2
St. John -2
Mississippi -2
Cal Poly SLO -2
Santa Barbara -2
Providence -2
UCSB -2
Dayton -2.5
Wyoming -2.5
NC Greensboro -2.5
Louisville -3
Kansas -3
Clemson -3
Wisconsin -3
Notre Dame -3
Alabama -3
Cal Riverside -3
S. Dakota St. -3


ATS Spreads and Covers taken from VegasInsider.com because they don't post the Division 2 and Division 3 games that didn't even have a line out, hence less sifting through games for my data.

Buy 0.5 Point (-120)
9 Loss to a Push (3.81%)
0 Pushes to a Win (0.0%)
3.81% of total bets affected by buying 0.5 points

Buy 1 Point (-130)
7 Loss to a Push (2.97%)
9 Loss to a Win (3.81%)
6.78% of total bets affected by buying 1 point

Buy 1.5 Points (-140)
3 Pushes (1.27%)
16 Wins (6.78%)
8.05% of total bets affected by buying 1.5 points

Buy 2 Points (-155)
7 Pushes (2.97%)
19 Wins (8.05%)
11.02% of total bets affected by buying 2 points

Buy 2.5 Points (-175)
3 Pushes (1.27%)
26 Wins(11.02%)
12.29% of total bets affected by buying 2.5 points

Buy 3 Points (-195)
8 Push (3.39%)
29 Wins (12.29%)
15.68% of total bets affected by buying 3 points
quote
TexasD send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
TexasD
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#2
Posted: 2/2/2013 4:02:59 PM
Please excuse me, it's 14 reasons to not buy points in basketball,...9 previous days of data plus the last 5 days above is NOT 15!
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TexasD send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
TexasD
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#3
Posted: 2/2/2013 4:16:15 PM
\/------------UPDATED STATS AFTER ADDING ABOVE GAMES------------\/

THE LAST 14 DAYS OF NCAA BASKETBALL GAMES:

SATURDAY, JANUARY 19, 2013 THROUGH FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 1, 2013

478 Games
956 Teams
5 Original Spreads Were Originally Pushes
115 Games Covered Between 0.5 to 3 Points of Original Spreads

ATS Spreads and Covers taken from VegasInsider.com because they don't post the Division 2 and Division 3 games that didn't even have a line out, hence less sifting through games for my data.

Buy 0.5 Point (-120)
24 Loss to a Push (2.51%)
5 Pushes to a Win (0.52%)
3.03% of total bets affected by buying 0.5 points

Buy 1 Point (-130)
27 Loss to a Push (2.82%)
29 Loss to a Win (3.03%)
5.85% of total bets affected by buying 1 point

Buy 1.5 Points (-140)
9 Pushes (0.94%)
56 Wins (5.86%)
6.8% of total bets affected by buying 1.5 points

Buy 2 Points (-155)
18 Pushes (1.88%)
65 Wins (6.80%)
8.68% of total bets affected by buying 2 points

Buy 2.5 Points (-175)
19 Pushes (1.99%)
83 Wins(8.68%)
10.67% of total bets affected by buying 2.5 points

Buy 3 Points (-195)
18 Pushes (1.88%)
102 Wins (10.67%)
12.55% of total bets affected by buying 3 points

On 3 points, on average 12.55% of bets that normally would have been a loss would be either a push or a win, but on the other 87.45% of the bets (regardless of win or lose), you are losing 77% MORE MONEY than  "normal juiced" bet on the original spread of -110.

Paying 77% more for only 12.55% insurance!

If you think a game is going to be THAT CLOSE to the original spread that you want to buy points, why are you even thinking of betting on the game?!?!?  THERE ARE BETTER BETS ON THE BOARD!!!!!

/\------------UPDATED STATS-----------/\
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TexasD
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#4
Posted: 2/2/2013 6:34:13 PM
People on these forums have brought up that "they only pick the games that matter" as if they are psychic or something, but in the reality of the situation, IT DOESN'T MATTER HOW YOU BUY THEM,...BUYING ANY AMOUNT OF POINTS IN ANY SITUATION IN ANY FORM OF BASKETBALL HAS A NEGATIVE EFFECT TO YOUR BANK ROLL.

A few people stated that they "only buy the hook" or half point, whereas the 0.5 point data shows that there is NO advantage to only buying 0.5 points as compared to any other amount.  The bottom line is that the amount of added juice you pay on your bets IS NOT GREATER than the amount of money "saved" by extra wins or pushes.

A few people have believed that "only buying points on games that have low ORIGINAL SPREADS" as compared to buying points on games with higher original spreads is profitable...BUT after doing statistical data on games of PUSH to 3 points of original spread and then buying 0.5 to 3 points on them, showed NO difference in probabilities or anything near being profitable.

A few people have thought that "buying games to 7 points" was profitable to them where 7 points is a "3-score game" and teams "give-up" at that number, the stats and research STILL said that buying points was ANYTHING NEAR being PROFITABLE. 

Though the stats DID show that MORE BETS were affected by buying points to 7 than buying to 6 or 8 points (approximately twice as much chances), it DID NOT SHOW A HIGH ENOUGH PROBABILITY to SAVE MORE MONEY through more pushes and wins THAN THE ADDED JUICE PAID ON ALL BETS.
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TexasD send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
TexasD
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#5
Posted: 2/3/2013 2:16:49 AM
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#6
Posted: 2/3/2013 3:24:32 AM
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TexasD send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
TexasD
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#7
Posted: 2/3/2013 9:15:25 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by RockPlay:



Thanks for your support RockPlay.  Yes, buying points DOES burn up your money.
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TexasD send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
TexasD
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#8
Posted: 2/5/2013 6:53:17 PM
I just got a FREE point by waiting from -12 until now!

Florida Gators -11 (-107) for me!

That increases my chances of winning by 3.03% and a chance of a push at 2.82%...FOR FREE!

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