Nothing wrong with getting early lines but at times you jump the gun on dogs where the line will only go up yet you take the game before noon.
That FSU line still has a chance to hit 6.5 and will hit 6 before tip off at the minimum.
Marshall will hit at least 5.5 if not 6.
I'd be shocked if Utah doesn't hit 6.
You do this quite a bit in CFB as well, you leave half a point on the board quite a bit. Try and show a little more patience when taking dogs that nobody wants. Anyhow GL moving forward.
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Nothing wrong with getting early lines but at times you jump the gun on dogs where the line will only go up yet you take the game before noon.
That FSU line still has a chance to hit 6.5 and will hit 6 before tip off at the minimum.
Marshall will hit at least 5.5 if not 6.
I'd be shocked if Utah doesn't hit 6.
You do this quite a bit in CFB as well, you leave half a point on the board quite a bit. Try and show a little more patience when taking dogs that nobody wants. Anyhow GL moving forward.
Nothing wrong with getting early lines but at times you jump the gun on dogs where the line will only go up yet you take the game before noon.
That FSU line still has a chance to hit 6.5 and will hit 6 before tip off at the minimum.
Marshall will hit at least 5.5 if not 6.
I'd be shocked if Utah doesn't hit 6.
You do this quite a bit in CFB as well, you leave half a point on the board quite a bit. Try and show a little more patience when taking dogs that nobody wants. Anyhow GL moving forward.
probably so...but i don't have the time or willingness to watch lines all day. but good point...hard to know which way lines are going to move though (unless you are like some people on here and somehow always get the best lines of the week).
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Quote Originally Posted by 165yds:
Nothing wrong with getting early lines but at times you jump the gun on dogs where the line will only go up yet you take the game before noon.
That FSU line still has a chance to hit 6.5 and will hit 6 before tip off at the minimum.
Marshall will hit at least 5.5 if not 6.
I'd be shocked if Utah doesn't hit 6.
You do this quite a bit in CFB as well, you leave half a point on the board quite a bit. Try and show a little more patience when taking dogs that nobody wants. Anyhow GL moving forward.
probably so...but i don't have the time or willingness to watch lines all day. but good point...hard to know which way lines are going to move though (unless you are like some people on here and somehow always get the best lines of the week).
Sims when you have a dog that you know nobody wants to bet you don't have to watch the lines all day. 5 minutes before tip off take them. You'll get yourself the best lines more times than not. I understand time is a problem especially if you have a wife, kids, job etc. But find 5 minutes (even that can be a problem for someone who is busy) as close to tip off and bet the games you like on dogs like the one's you have on your card. Even if that means you only have 5 minutes at 4pm, 5pm or 6pm etc.
A couple of your games have already moved against you half a point and will only go up as the day continues. OK done preaching, take it easy.
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Sims when you have a dog that you know nobody wants to bet you don't have to watch the lines all day. 5 minutes before tip off take them. You'll get yourself the best lines more times than not. I understand time is a problem especially if you have a wife, kids, job etc. But find 5 minutes (even that can be a problem for someone who is busy) as close to tip off and bet the games you like on dogs like the one's you have on your card. Even if that means you only have 5 minutes at 4pm, 5pm or 6pm etc.
A couple of your games have already moved against you half a point and will only go up as the day continues. OK done preaching, take it easy.
Sims when you have a dog that you know nobody wants to bet you don't have to watch the lines all day. 5 minutes before tip off take them. You'll get yourself the best lines more times than not. I understand time is a problem especially if you have a wife, kids, job etc. But find 5 minutes (even that can be a problem for someone who is busy) as close to tip off and bet the games you like on dogs like the one's you have on your card. Even if that means you only have 5 minutes at 4pm, 5pm or 6pm etc.
A couple of your games have already moved against you half a point and will only go up as the day continues. OK done preaching, take it easy.
thanks...not online once i leave work, so maybe i should starting booking closer to 5pm everyday.
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Quote Originally Posted by 165yds:
Sims when you have a dog that you know nobody wants to bet you don't have to watch the lines all day. 5 minutes before tip off take them. You'll get yourself the best lines more times than not. I understand time is a problem especially if you have a wife, kids, job etc. But find 5 minutes (even that can be a problem for someone who is busy) as close to tip off and bet the games you like on dogs like the one's you have on your card. Even if that means you only have 5 minutes at 4pm, 5pm or 6pm etc.
A couple of your games have already moved against you half a point and will only go up as the day continues. OK done preaching, take it easy.
thanks...not online once i leave work, so maybe i should starting booking closer to 5pm everyday.
Sims when you have a dog that you know nobody wants to bet you don't have to watch the lines all day. 5 minutes before tip off take them. You'll get yourself the best lines more times than not. I understand time is a problem especially if you have a wife, kids, job etc. But find 5 minutes (even that can be a problem for someone who is busy) as close to tip off and bet the games you like on dogs like the one's you have on your card. Even if that means you only have 5 minutes at 4pm, 5pm or 6pm etc.
A couple of your games have already moved against you half a point and will only go up as the day continues. OK done preaching, take it easy.
I don't find this necessarily to be the case.
Often times, the underdog is undervalued on the opening line because of public perception. This happens in baseball a lot... I was able to absolutely rake by betting primarly underdogs on the opening line because perception caused an inflated opener towards the favorite.
I think that may have happened with Ohio today. BetOnline threw out a +7 yesterday at the open and I grabbed it, and they may have done so because Ohio just lost to an inferior Robert Morris team.
To me, there really is no tried and true rule. I've seen people say bet favorites early, underdogs late, and I just don't believe it's that cut and dry. I've seen favorites undervalued at the open also. It all comes down to public perception and how the books take that perception into account when opening a number.
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Quote Originally Posted by 165yds:
Sims when you have a dog that you know nobody wants to bet you don't have to watch the lines all day. 5 minutes before tip off take them. You'll get yourself the best lines more times than not. I understand time is a problem especially if you have a wife, kids, job etc. But find 5 minutes (even that can be a problem for someone who is busy) as close to tip off and bet the games you like on dogs like the one's you have on your card. Even if that means you only have 5 minutes at 4pm, 5pm or 6pm etc.
A couple of your games have already moved against you half a point and will only go up as the day continues. OK done preaching, take it easy.
I don't find this necessarily to be the case.
Often times, the underdog is undervalued on the opening line because of public perception. This happens in baseball a lot... I was able to absolutely rake by betting primarly underdogs on the opening line because perception caused an inflated opener towards the favorite.
I think that may have happened with Ohio today. BetOnline threw out a +7 yesterday at the open and I grabbed it, and they may have done so because Ohio just lost to an inferior Robert Morris team.
To me, there really is no tried and true rule. I've seen people say bet favorites early, underdogs late, and I just don't believe it's that cut and dry. I've seen favorites undervalued at the open also. It all comes down to public perception and how the books take that perception into account when opening a number.
Tone I'm only talking about dogs where you know a huge majority will be against them. More than 85% will be on Florida, there's no reason to take FSU early. That line will close at minimum 6.5. Those are the only games I'm referring too.
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Tone I'm only talking about dogs where you know a huge majority will be against them. More than 85% will be on Florida, there's no reason to take FSU early. That line will close at minimum 6.5. Those are the only games I'm referring too.
Tone I'm only talking about dogs where you know a huge majority will be against them. More than 85% will be on Florida, there's no reason to take FSU early. That line will close at minimum 6.5. Those are the only games I'm referring too.
Still respectfully disagree... I've seen many, many instances in all sports of underdogs getting less than 25% of the action and still the line moves toward the underdog.
Public money does not move lines. Sharp money does.
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Quote Originally Posted by 165yds:
Tone I'm only talking about dogs where you know a huge majority will be against them. More than 85% will be on Florida, there's no reason to take FSU early. That line will close at minimum 6.5. Those are the only games I'm referring too.
Still respectfully disagree... I've seen many, many instances in all sports of underdogs getting less than 25% of the action and still the line moves toward the underdog.
Public money does not move lines. Sharp money does.
Still respectfully disagree... I've seen many, many instances in all sports of underdogs getting less than 25% of the action and still the line moves toward the underdog.
Public money does not move lines. Sharp money does.
Adding to this... USC is a perfect example today.
Over 90% of the money is on New Mexico at a square book I just checked, and yet USC opened +11 at BetCris and it's now down to +9.5 at most shops.
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Quote Originally Posted by Tone10:
Still respectfully disagree... I've seen many, many instances in all sports of underdogs getting less than 25% of the action and still the line moves toward the underdog.
Public money does not move lines. Sharp money does.
Adding to this... USC is a perfect example today.
Over 90% of the money is on New Mexico at a square book I just checked, and yet USC opened +11 at BetCris and it's now down to +9.5 at most shops.
good discussion....i think both have valid points. impossible to predict line movement but might be smart to wait to book the "sharp" plays if you feel good about where it's going.
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good discussion....i think both have valid points. impossible to predict line movement but might be smart to wait to book the "sharp" plays if you feel good about where it's going.
Not sure what your're talking about Tone but the %'s are almost even for USC so the line drop is normal. Often sharps buy and come back over the top to get a better number. Unless you are working at a book with a high volume of customers you don't know for sure.
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Not sure what your're talking about Tone but the %'s are almost even for USC so the line drop is normal. Often sharps buy and come back over the top to get a better number. Unless you are working at a book with a high volume of customers you don't know for sure.
Not sure what your're talking about Tone but the %'s are almost even for USC so the line drop is normal. Often sharps buy and come back over the top to get a better number. Unless you are working at a book with a high volume of customers you don't know for sure.
Sports Interaction is a notoriously square book that has betting %'s for each game. If you go to their site and click on the little bubble next to the USC-New Mexico game, you'll see over 90% of the bets placed on New Mexico... which is perfectly understandable, considering Joe Public has no interest in betting this USC team based on their recent performances.
Watch a little bit later today, and I guarantee you both Sports Interaction and Bovada will begin to shade their line towards New Mexico to protect themselves from the onslaught of Lobos bets by their clients (i.e. sharp books such as Pinny throwing out New Mexico -9 and SIA and Bovada throwing out a -9.5... this will typically happen as tip off nears.)
This is a classic case of an underdog nobody wants to bet and the line moving in the direction of that underdog. This isn't always the case... it's entirely possible for squares and sharps to be on the same side (i.e. Florida) but that's still sharp money moving the line, not public money.
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Quote Originally Posted by 165yds:
Not sure what your're talking about Tone but the %'s are almost even for USC so the line drop is normal. Often sharps buy and come back over the top to get a better number. Unless you are working at a book with a high volume of customers you don't know for sure.
Sports Interaction is a notoriously square book that has betting %'s for each game. If you go to their site and click on the little bubble next to the USC-New Mexico game, you'll see over 90% of the bets placed on New Mexico... which is perfectly understandable, considering Joe Public has no interest in betting this USC team based on their recent performances.
Watch a little bit later today, and I guarantee you both Sports Interaction and Bovada will begin to shade their line towards New Mexico to protect themselves from the onslaught of Lobos bets by their clients (i.e. sharp books such as Pinny throwing out New Mexico -9 and SIA and Bovada throwing out a -9.5... this will typically happen as tip off nears.)
This is a classic case of an underdog nobody wants to bet and the line moving in the direction of that underdog. This isn't always the case... it's entirely possible for squares and sharps to be on the same side (i.e. Florida) but that's still sharp money moving the line, not public money.
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