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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: 2012 March Madness
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#1
Posted: 3/13/2012 2:30:20 PM
352-366 -136.74u Reg Season

Feeling good about March madness... Still analyzed alot of CBB despite making very few bets for the last monthes... Ohio State's bumpy finish towards the end of the season made me tons of money as I took bets on alot of high profile big ten games and the public was dead wrong, time after time after time... I bet people are still gonna bet against Michigan State all tourney...

ANYWAY....

Madness Picks for the day:

NCAAB Tourney:
20u
Iona/BYU Over 162
5u
Western Kentucky -3

- There is a formula to beating Iona and that i guard defense and drastically slowing down the tempo of a game... The problem is BYU has absolutely no clue how to do this and they havent one it to anyone all year in a conference where it is kind of important... I absolutely hate that this team was in over Drexel, and it shows how immature this selection commitee is in letting a team that in totally one sided in BYU in over Drexel... defense is becomming completely underrated in Basketball and it is sad.... but anyway... It will take an anomaly for this game not to get into the 90's.... 
- Western Kentucky is a perrenial tourney team and despite the poor season I feel this program is just learning the lesson that it doesnt matter what you do in the regular season, if you dont win your conference tourney your not in the dance anyway... Its a flawed system but I believe Western Kentucky deserves to be here... They got hot at the right time and if they put effort into there regular season they would have likely been a 12 or 13 seed....

CIT:
5u
Old Dominion -10.5

- I admittedly dont know too much about Coastal Carolina, but I do know how good Old Dominion is... The CAA season tests you and if the are even a little motivated here it should be a blowout with Coastal carolina scoring no more than 55...


NIT:
5u
Seton Hall -10.5
LSU/Oregon Over 136

- Unlike some times, I dont think Seton Hall is surprised to be here... After there loss to Louisville there fate was pretty much sealed with little to get excited about on Sunday...  They should be motivated here...
- based on the pace of these teams I am a little irked by the line being low, but seeing how this is in oregon and is in the first round of the NIT I expect things to be loose and sloppy enough to push this one over... 

GL ALL




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#2
Posted: 3/13/2012 9:29:42 PM
Futures:
5u
Kentuky to Win South -130
Over 1.5 #1 Seeds make Final Four +110
4u
Kentuky to Win NCAAB Tournament +260
2u
Wisky to win East +800
1u
Wisky to win NCAAB Tournament +6000

- I know who the number one team in the country is and its Kentucky... Whether they win the tourney or not is unknown
- Wisky is my upset, value team

GL ALL

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#3
Posted: 3/14/2012 9:49:15 PM
I dont think I have ver been art of a worse moose than the one I had with Iona's total yeterday... they scored 17 pts in the last 24min of that game after scoring 55 in the first 16min... I have never seen anything like it...

CBI:
10u
Oregon St -6 1H
Oregon St -10.5

- I think Oregon States Home record and home ATS record speaks volumes... Western Illinois went only 9-9 in the Summit Conference... I am impressed they beat NDS 3 times but I am gonna chop that up to it obviously being a good matchup for them... but if I were to pick a team to compare Oregon St too in the Summit it would be SDS...  Who they lost to thrice...


GL ALL
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#4
Posted: 3/15/2012 1:44:16 AM
3-4 -13.5u so far, but we can chalk that all up to Iona....

20u
Kansas St -5
Wichita St -6
Uconn/Iowa St Over 136
10u
Cuse -15
Cuse/Asheville Over 146
Cuse TT Over 81*
Louisville/Davidson Over 1H 65
Kentucky -14 1H
5u
Col St +190
Davidson +275
BYU +230
LBS +165
SDS +330
New Mexico St +255
Loyola MD +1800
Colorado +215

- I guess you have to put So. Miss as a 9 because it would be a little unfair to put em lower but to be the #2 team in the CUSA isnt somethign I would put on my resume... Other than beating Memphis once at home and beating USF at home, they have had no impressive wins IMO and did not do well in there Conf tourney... 
- I think if Wichita State played more ranked team this year they would have pulled off more and been the highest mid-major ever...  To beat Creighton in the fashion they did was superb... VCU is not nearly as good as they were last season... Straight forward win here IMO... No drama
- Uconn made it... if these talented guys cant get up for this game then imagine they are risking losing some serious potential lottery money... Iowa St is one of the hotter teams in the tourney and we all know that they will be sharp and ready for this one, but I do not beleive the spread should be at +2 given the talent gap...  Over is the logical play in what should be the best game of the day...
- I like that the spread moved down with the Melo announcement... I would make the argument that this team is actually better without him and his distraction.. .-15 is alot more attractive and I went ahead and bit on it... UNC ashvilles tempo should play directly into the hands of the Orange, lots of energy off the bench might get the orange to triple digits...
- Despite there style of play, Louisville can score, and will be able to effciently in this game... davidson need to push tempo to have a chance... The only way I see this 1H not hitting is if Louisville gets up big early and then can afford to slow it down and really get comfertable in zone on defense...
- To be clear Western Kentucky is not a good team... They were just the best team in the Sun Belt... The fact that they were actully losing for 39 minutes against a team as bad as MVSU speaks volume... The hilltoppers are as hot as they can be and its not that impressive and not impressive enough to kept it close IMO... 25 pts is alot and the chance of a backdoor kept me from the spread...
- "One Shining Momeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeent!!!" 5u plays, if I get killed ont hese day one I will not bet many dogs tomorrow... I probably should have bet Montanta too but all my brackets have them either deep or as the champion so action is there regardless....

GL ALL


- Hoping to smoke my local... 
- *The Cuse TT over is just a projection based on the lines at 5dimes of o147 and -15... My local will not let me bet it only when/if 5 dimes offers a line...  My experience over the years is that they tend not to skew the line during tourney time, but if they were gonna skew or juice one game it might be that one... 
- My duties as a local also has me invested in Col St and SDS so two solid covers there would be amazing... darn the Public!!!
- I might get a better/worse line on Wichita St... I will likely bet that one online hoping the public will bet VCU... I have set my local line at VCU +5 but not getting much action at all... hoping that will change... Moot poitn for the thread but jsut wanted to document my thoughts..

 and have a great tourney ALL!!!!





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#5
Posted: 3/15/2012 3:08:12 PM
5u
Montana/Wisky Under 65 2H

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#6
Posted: 3/15/2012 6:06:02 PM
added:
20u
col/unlv over 137
10u
col/unlv over 62.5 1h

gl all
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#7
Posted: 3/15/2012 6:13:55 PM
   Rebels and Buffalo be running tonight huh?
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#8
Posted: 3/16/2012 10:35:54 AM
not a great day yest:

20u
Cincy -2
Bama/Creighton Over 133.5
Virginia +3.5
Belmont +3.5
Missouri -21
Lehigh +12.5
10u
Lehigh +7 1H
Missouri -11.5 1H
Missouri TT Over 82.5
Virginia ML +140
Belmont ML +155
5u
Lehigh 1H ML +355
Lehigh ML +640


GL ALL
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#9
Posted: 3/16/2012 8:17:12 PM
another crushing day... This is my last limit with my local...

30u
mich st -19
det +13.5
20u
xavier/nd over 124.5
usf/temple over 120.5
10u
michigan st -11 1h
washington -2.5 1h

gl all
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#10
Posted: 3/17/2012 9:12:51 AM
a few detroit points from a positive day yest, but didn't work out and I am running on fumes

20u
bowling green/oak over 164.5
10u
kansas st +5
seton hall -7
kansas st +2.5 1h
seton hall -4 1h
bg/oakland over 77.5 1h
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#11
Posted: 3/17/2012 9:14:43 AM
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#12
Posted: 3/17/2012 2:43:29 PM
finhers crossed but I am now feeling good about bowling green total

added
10u
zags +4.5 1h
5u
mercer +2.5
mercer +1 1h
mercer tt over 62.5

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#13
Posted: 3/17/2012 4:00:52 PM
totally miserable finish in cit...

last gasp

40u
wisky +1
murray +5.5

largest plays of the week and they absolutely have to both hit

parlayed wisky ml + murray st ml

5u +520

*peace*
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#14
Posted: 3/17/2012 8:26:33 PM
geez..

30u
Baylor/Col Over 133.5
Louisville pk
10u
Indiana -3.5 2H
Indiana/VCU Over 77 2H

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#15
Posted: 3/18/2012 10:35:28 AM
10u
no iowa/drex under 56 1h
no iowa/drex under 123
nc st +4.5
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#16
Posted: 3/18/2012 1:19:06 PM
10u
Nc State/G'TOwn Over 70 2H
2.5u
Nc State TT Over 33.5 2H
Georgetown TT Over 36.5 2H


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#17
Posted: 3/18/2012 2:44:40 PM
10u
Michigan St -3.5 1H
Michigan St TT Over 65.5
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#18
Posted: 3/18/2012 2:46:53 PM
5u
Michigan St TT Over 30.5 1H
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#19
Posted: 3/18/2012 2:52:51 PM
40u
No Car/Creighton Over 159
20u
Iowa/Oregon Over 154.5
10u
Iowa/Oregon Over 73.5 1H
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#20
Posted: 3/18/2012 5:59:03 PM
2.5u
Oregon TT Over 46 2H
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#21
Posted: 3/18/2012 6:12:35 PM
5u
Xavier ML + Florida 1H ML + Lakers (NBA) ML +110
Florida TT Over 79
Purdue +8.5
2.5u
Purdue +335
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#22
Posted: 3/18/2012 6:14:48 PM
10u
Ohio TT Over 57.5

really hoping for the pace to continue in greensboro...

plan is to play cincy very large tonight...

GL ALL
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#23
Posted: 3/18/2012 8:21:00 PM
very good day today but still down for the tourney... Flight leaving in an hour.. hoping to get home and just enjoy cincy winning handily... 

20u
Cincy +3
10u
Cincy ML +135
Cincy TT Over 63.5
Cincy +1 1H
5u
Cincy ML 1H +120
Cincy TT Over 28 1H

gl all
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#24
Posted: 3/19/2012 12:34:14 AM
the lakers have me steaming, only non-cbb related play in the lot and it kills a parlay... could be damn near even for the week but i will take it given my extremely poor start... purdue chokes and the cincy game really never got any tempo going...  I have done well on big plays this week... lot of March left... 

Tourney Record:
40u: 2-1 +36u
30u: 3-1 +57u
20u: 7-9 -58u
10u: 15-18 -42.5u
5u: 9-16 -4.75u
2.5u: 2-2 -.25u

Overall: 38-47 -12.5u


only lean for tomorrow is Illinois St and I am already in at +8, but waiting to see if nropp is on it before I lay a big play on it... That guy is amazing...  The silver lining to it all is that it worked out that I am up with the local and down on the accounts, so no money coming out of my pocket tomorrow... AND its not as bad as it shows because I tend to get better juice on my online plays....

ANYWAY...

gl all, hope everyone is making money this march...  





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#25
Posted: 3/19/2012 12:34:58 AM
Tourney Record:
40u: 2-1 +36u
30u: 3-1 +57u
20u: 7-9 -58u
10u: 15-18 -42.5u
5u: 9-16 -4.75u
2.5u: 2-2 -.25u

Overall: 38-47 -12.5u
quote
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