YTD: 2-0
If you have read one of my posts before, you know that I tend to focus more of my plays on totals, and the statistical analysis associated with them. However, many of those similar concepts can be applied to a side play tonight.
Play: Sacramento St +13
Kenpom ranks Sacramento St #299 nationally this year, #323 last year, and #305 in 2010. The casual observer would consider them one of the worst basketball teams in the country, and they’d be right. Their combined 19-45 record since the start of the 2010 season has kept them under the radar. But dig a little deeper and you see that the team is a remarkable 30-18 against the spread during that same period.
Now to the statistical side. We have a double digit spread in a game that will have minimal possessions; a huge value advantage when taking the underdog and points. Sac St enters the game #301 in terms of adjusted pace (64.5 possessions per game) and Cal Poly enters at #341 (60.6 possessions per game—the 5th slowest in the nation!). Kenpom predicts only 57 possessions per team in this game. Catching the 13 points, that equates to approximately a 6 possession cushion -- a very difficult margin of victory to overcome with a team of Cal Poly's caliber (only scoring 0.981 pts per possession to start the season). Then add in the fact that their offensive opportunities will be severely limited due to the pace of the game, and you begin to see the value in taking the points.
Lastly, Sac St (3-2) has been sneaky competitive to start the season. In both of their losses, they blew halftime leads (a 3 pt lead @ Washington St, and 17 pt lead to McNeese St)
In summary, this will be a very ugly game to watch. But I believe the 13 points will be more than sufficient for an underrated underdog in a game that will have minimal possessions.
As always, good luck
Thanks for the info. This is the reason why I am on this site all day. 
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