November
12-6 +5.5 units
December 13-5 +10.1 units
January 10-9 +4.2 units; 2-unit plays 3-0; 3-unit plays: 2-0
Easy cover last night making us still unbeaten in 2 and 3-unit plays. We are going to zig zag on Citadel and be AGAINST them tonight, here is why I'm liking Appy St -2 for 2-units:
If you recall from a few days ago we liked Citadel because they were actually going to be the more athletic team and Samford couldn't expose Citadels flaws.
Well today, those flaws should be on full display as Appy St's best player Donald Sims will be much more athletic and hard to handle for Citadel tonight. Sims is averaging over 21 a game, over 4 assists and has 33 steals on the season. He shoots over 55% from the floor and gets to the line a lot and shoots over 83% there. Appy St's next four best players/contributers are all 6-5 to 6-7 athletes with experience. Appy St should be able to take advantage of Citadel's two weakest points, guard athleticism and inside post work. On top of that, because of injuries Citadel is only 7-deep and both of their guards Wells and Urbanus have played almost every minute of every game for the past two weeks. The Samford game was their 3rd in 5 days and I felt that because of Samford's style I was confident those minutes would catch up with Citadel but I am much less confident tonight. Appy St plays an uptempo style with athletic guards and slashers and on top of even that, Appy's two top players Sims and Carter gets to the line often and shoots a high percentage. Citadel can't afford to get in foul trouble or they will have some VERY inexperienced players in the game.
Over their last 5 games, Appy St is not putting their opponents on the line much at all (less than 16 a game) and that plays perfectly tonight as Citadel has only gotten to the line 17 times per game in their last 5. Appy St has been a solid rebounding team over their last 5 and this is another area where Citadel's lack of depth should show as I expect Appy st to win the rebounding battle tonight. Also, Citadel's defense has been very suspect (and you can even say it was suspect in the Samford win as they allowed tons of open 3's to Samford but Samford just couldn't convert). Citadel is giving up an unreal 1.6+ assist to turnover ratio to their opponents. Citadel opponents are dealing out 14 assists per game and only averaging less than 9 turnovers a game. This is another advantage Sims should have in tonight's game. One thing that has bothered Appy St is tough pressure defense (as evidenced by their 16 turnovers in their win versus Elon last time out). If you watched any of the Samford game that I linked to, you realize that the Citadel zone (and man for that matter) doesn't have much pressure and doesn't create many turnovers.
Is there anything I don't like about this game? Sure, Appy St is really up and down this season, which is to be expected with a 30-year old coach, but I love the way they bounced back from back to back 1-pt losses by beating Elon soundly and I'm expecting a very strong performance tonight as you can be sure Appy St knows that this will be their most winnable road game of the four in five games they are about to have. Citadel has six wins this year: against #310 High Point, #329 Georgia Southern, Non-D-I schools St Marys MD and Chowan, #327 South Carolina St and the Samford game last matchup (a game explained by Samford's lack of athleticism). All other wins came against very undisciplined teams that are among the worst in the country in both offense and defense. Appy St is an athletic team that is solid offensively. Citadel has played 6 teams that ranked between 100-200 in Kenpom's ranking. Citadel is 0-6 in those games losing by an average of 15 points (although most of the blowouts were on the road). Good luck with whatever you decide, we are all in this together.
November
12-6 +5.5 units
December 13-5 +10.1 units
January 10-9 +4.2 units; 2-unit plays 3-0; 3-unit plays: 2-0
Easy cover last night making us still unbeaten in 2 and 3-unit plays. We are going to zig zag on Citadel and be AGAINST them tonight, here is why I'm liking Appy St -2 for 2-units:
If you recall from a few days ago we liked Citadel because they were actually going to be the more athletic team and Samford couldn't expose Citadels flaws.
Well today, those flaws should be on full display as Appy St's best player Donald Sims will be much more athletic and hard to handle for Citadel tonight. Sims is averaging over 21 a game, over 4 assists and has 33 steals on the season. He shoots over 55% from the floor and gets to the line a lot and shoots over 83% there. Appy St's next four best players/contributers are all 6-5 to 6-7 athletes with experience. Appy St should be able to take advantage of Citadel's two weakest points, guard athleticism and inside post work. On top of that, because of injuries Citadel is only 7-deep and both of their guards Wells and Urbanus have played almost every minute of every game for the past two weeks. The Samford game was their 3rd in 5 days and I felt that because of Samford's style I was confident those minutes would catch up with Citadel but I am much less confident tonight. Appy St plays an uptempo style with athletic guards and slashers and on top of even that, Appy's two top players Sims and Carter gets to the line often and shoots a high percentage. Citadel can't afford to get in foul trouble or they will have some VERY inexperienced players in the game.
Over their last 5 games, Appy St is not putting their opponents on the line much at all (less than 16 a game) and that plays perfectly tonight as Citadel has only gotten to the line 17 times per game in their last 5. Appy St has been a solid rebounding team over their last 5 and this is another area where Citadel's lack of depth should show as I expect Appy st to win the rebounding battle tonight. Also, Citadel's defense has been very suspect (and you can even say it was suspect in the Samford win as they allowed tons of open 3's to Samford but Samford just couldn't convert). Citadel is giving up an unreal 1.6+ assist to turnover ratio to their opponents. Citadel opponents are dealing out 14 assists per game and only averaging less than 9 turnovers a game. This is another advantage Sims should have in tonight's game. One thing that has bothered Appy St is tough pressure defense (as evidenced by their 16 turnovers in their win versus Elon last time out). If you watched any of the Samford game that I linked to, you realize that the Citadel zone (and man for that matter) doesn't have much pressure and doesn't create many turnovers.
Is there anything I don't like about this game? Sure, Appy St is really up and down this season, which is to be expected with a 30-year old coach, but I love the way they bounced back from back to back 1-pt losses by beating Elon soundly and I'm expecting a very strong performance tonight as you can be sure Appy St knows that this will be their most winnable road game of the four in five games they are about to have. Citadel has six wins this year: against #310 High Point, #329 Georgia Southern, Non-D-I schools St Marys MD and Chowan, #327 South Carolina St and the Samford game last matchup (a game explained by Samford's lack of athleticism). All other wins came against very undisciplined teams that are among the worst in the country in both offense and defense. Appy St is an athletic team that is solid offensively. Citadel has played 6 teams that ranked between 100-200 in Kenpom's ranking. Citadel is 0-6 in those games losing by an average of 15 points (although most of the blowouts were on the road). Good luck with whatever you decide, we are all in this together.
I have noticed you tend to play games that are between smaller schools or in a less elite conference or the average teams in bigger conferences. Do you have a better read on these types of games?
The past 2 months I have been useing the KenPom rankings and really find them effective.
I have noticed you tend to play games that are between smaller schools or in a less elite conference or the average teams in bigger conferences. Do you have a better read on these types of games?
The past 2 months I have been useing the KenPom rankings and really find them effective.
I have noticed you tend to play games that are between smaller schools or in a less elite conference or the average teams in bigger conferences. Do you have a better read on these types of games?
The past 2 months I have been useing the KenPom rankings and really find them effective.
Good Luck! And THANK YOU for your hardework!
Most of my games will be teams from smaller conferences mainly because the lines aren't nearly as tight (most important reason) and thanks to the internet there is plenty of info available about the teams if you are willing to dig for it (which most people aren't - next biggest reason) and its much harder to be influenced by your own eyes (an ofter overlooked aspect). Once you see a blowout win (or loss) by Notre Dame, Uconn, Kentucky, or "fill in big name team here" you are more likely to view their next game subjectively rather than objectively. I rarely watch a game that I have bet on (impossible to stay impartial and they aren't televised very often) but I do spend much more time studying the recaps, box scores, and stats (I even go as far as emailing/facebook/twittering the beat writers for particular schools).
I have noticed you tend to play games that are between smaller schools or in a less elite conference or the average teams in bigger conferences. Do you have a better read on these types of games?
The past 2 months I have been useing the KenPom rankings and really find them effective.
Good Luck! And THANK YOU for your hardework!
Most of my games will be teams from smaller conferences mainly because the lines aren't nearly as tight (most important reason) and thanks to the internet there is plenty of info available about the teams if you are willing to dig for it (which most people aren't - next biggest reason) and its much harder to be influenced by your own eyes (an ofter overlooked aspect). Once you see a blowout win (or loss) by Notre Dame, Uconn, Kentucky, or "fill in big name team here" you are more likely to view their next game subjectively rather than objectively. I rarely watch a game that I have bet on (impossible to stay impartial and they aren't televised very often) but I do spend much more time studying the recaps, box scores, and stats (I even go as far as emailing/facebook/twittering the beat writers for particular schools).
With you on this one KP......looks like a good spot.
Agree with trying to objective vs subjective. Something I could stand to improve on
The main reason why I'll having my first losing football season in years is that I haven't stayed nearly objective enough (because I watch EVERY televised football game nomatter the situation!)
With you on this one KP......looks like a good spot.
Agree with trying to objective vs subjective. Something I could stand to improve on
The main reason why I'll having my first losing football season in years is that I haven't stayed nearly objective enough (because I watch EVERY televised football game nomatter the situation!)
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