Jo-Wilfried Tsonga broke a decade-long stranglehold on this event’s title by the “Big Four” by scoring the unexpected win in 2014. He’s back as the 10th seed to defend the title. All of the big names are out this week with the exception of Roger Federer who chose to skip this week. Novak Djokovic is a three time winner of this event with a 26-5 mark all-time. He is your top seed. The 2nd is two-time Rogers Cup winner Andy Murray. The Scot is 21-6 at this tournament. Rounding out the top four seeds are Stan Wawrinka and Kei Nishikori. The Swiss has never made it past the quarterfinals at the Rogers Cup with a 10-8 record. Nishikori has not played here much at all with just a 2-2 mark. He would be expected to do better this year in light of his run at the Citi Open this past week.
Two key returnees to the Tour this week are 5th seeded Tomas Berdych who has not played since Wimbledon and Canada’s own Milos Raonic. Raonic enters the tournament as the 8th seed. He has been nursing a foot problem that he had surgery on earlier this season. Raonic sounded upbeat heading into the week, telling reporters earlier this week “I feel confident about getting myself in the right shape and really making a charge (in Montreal).” Of the other top sixteen seeds, Richard Gasquet has the best run of success at this tournament at 19-8 overall. He has made the Final twice with the last coming in 2012. Combined, Djokovic, Nadal and Murray have won the title here seven of the past eight years.
Planting The Seeds
Being a Masters level tournament, there is a 56 player field. The top
eight seeds receive first round byes. At the business end of the Rogers
Cup, seeds generally are the ones involved in the outcome. Still,
nonseeds do crack the quarterfinals routinely and a surprise
semifinalist has happened a few times too. Over the last five years, at
least two nonseeds have made the quarters four of five years with a
nonseed in the semifinals three out of five years.
Now, let’s look at the opposite end of the spectrum and see where the upsets could happen this week in Canada based on past history. In 2014, just two seeds lost their first matches at the Rogers Cup. In 2013, that number was five. From 2010-2012, a total of eleven seeded players lost their first matches at this event. Three in 2010, four each in 2011 and 2012. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the seeds who could be prone to joining those players from the past as early exits in 2015.
#3 Stan Wawrinka
This is more based on the draw than anything. Wawrinka is going to be
paired with either Fernando Verdasco or Nick Kyrgios in his first match
after the opening round bye. This is Stan’s first tournament since
Wimbledon and this has not always been his favorite time of year. He’s
been more prone to turn it on at the U.S. Open and just kind of use the
next few weeks as a tune up without a ton of care for the results. Very
interested to see Kyrgios this week. Hewitt is working with him and it’s
his chance for a little redemption from the Davis Cup flare up.
Wawrinka did beat him at Queen’s Club earlier in the summer. Wawrinka
should win against either, but I do think there is a chance he could get
caught cold.
#7 Rafael Nadal
Another injury worry for Nadal has him on the list this week. Nadal has
admitted he had a shoulder issue in Hamburg a couple weeks ago. It did
not prevent him from winning the title there, but it’s not what you want
coming over to the North American hard courts. Nadal draws either
Sergiy Stakhovsky or Canadian wildcard Filip Peliwo. Nadal has fared
well at this event with a 25-6 record over the years. He has not played
the Rogers Cup since making the Final in 2013. I venture to say he still
has too much for either opponent in this spot, but with the shoulder a
question mark, you have to watch this as Nadal could struggle out of the
gate if it is still a problem.
#8 Milos Raonic
The Canadians won’t like this, but Raonic has to be weary of his first
match in more than a month. The likelihood that it could come against
Ivo Karlovic makes it even more of a worry. Karlovic battled Jerzy
Janowicz for the right to play Raonic. If Ivo progresses, Raonic will
have to get used to that big serve coming from the other side of the net
quickly. That match up could mean just a few points make the difference
in winning or losing and that’s tough for a guy coming in on a long
layoff. I would think Raonic would much prefer the inconsistency of
Janowicz in this spot.
#12 Kevin Anderson
Anderson made the quarterfinals last year when this tournament was in
Toronto. The previous two years though, he was a first-up casualty. He
faces Lukas Rosol to open. While Rosol has not played on hard courts in
months, he’s got that big hitting game that can match Anderson. Anderson
was stunned last week in Washington by teen phenom Alexander Zverev, so
this isn’t just a dartboard shot. If Rosol serves well, he will have a
chance.
#13 David Goffin
Goffin opens against a confident Steve Johnson who narrowly missed
making his first ATP Final last week at the Citi Open. Goffin is in good
form having made a clay court final in Gstaad. Still, transitioning to a
quicker surface against a guy who has been playing on it for a couple
of weeks is rough. Goffin also has just one main draw match at this
event, a loss to Tommy Haas back in 2013. Johnson makes his Rogers Cup
debut. If Johnson serves close to the level seen in D.C. this past week,
an upset could be in the making.
#14 Grigor Dimitrov
You have to have the Dimi-God on this list simply because of the
upheaval in his life in the past month, not to mention the average
results for most of the year. He continued to look alternately shaky and
somewhat good in D.C. this past week. He’s got a real tough opener
against qualifier Alexandr Dolgopolov. Dimitrov owns a 2-1 head-to-head
advantage. The last time they met was Wimbledon in 2014. It was a five
set thrill ride. Expect nothing less than the unexpected in this one.
#15 Gael Monfils
Monfils opens against Fognini. So cue up the circus music, get the
popcorn ready and run far away from this match if someone asks you to
pick a winner. While Monfils has generally only lost to top tier players
at this event, who knows where he is at right now. Fognini has been
consistent at the Rogers Cup over the years. He has won a match and then
lost a match in four of the last five years. They have split six career
meetings with only two featuring a straight sets winner.