Absolute pounder. GENOA missing RINCON and ANSALDI will hurt them defending. BONNAVENTURA back will aid MILAN moving forward. MILAN triple revenge against a very different GENOA team they've seen in the past who have sold all of their young talent and can't seem to buy a goal this season. 3-0 MILAN.
ARSENAL/LEIC U 2.5
Far different ARSENAL side from the first leg. Without CARZOLA the team struggles with creativity and finishing although they gain defensively in the mid. LEIC won't find it as easy to counter this week against ARSENAL who love possession. A 1-1 draw seems fair here.
Absolute pounder. GENOA missing RINCON and ANSALDI will hurt them defending. BONNAVENTURA back will aid MILAN moving forward. MILAN triple revenge against a very different GENOA team they've seen in the past who have sold all of their young talent and can't seem to buy a goal this season. 3-0 MILAN.
ARSENAL/LEIC U 2.5
Far different ARSENAL side from the first leg. Without CARZOLA the team struggles with creativity and finishing although they gain defensively in the mid. LEIC won't find it as easy to counter this week against ARSENAL who love possession. A 1-1 draw seems fair here.
Broke even yesterday, LEEDS outplayed BORO but couldn't break the goose egg;
7-4-0 OVERALL
CL
It's that time of year again.
PSG/CHELSEA
*I lean hard towards PSG here but the line yesterday had me potentially seeing a draw. Line movement this morning has me leaning PSG but at -160 I'll have to think about it, if anybody can screw up a bet it's CHELSEA. I don't think the whole league view and that CHELSEA only have CL to play for applies here. PSG are 24 points clear atop the FRENCH league, sat players this week tied Lille so in terms of competition, PSG are all in on CL and don't need to sweat that joke of a FRENCH league. Here are sme interesting numbers on this game;
TERRY does play a factor for CHELSEA and although it was looking like he's lost a step, under MOURINHO the last couple of seasons he soared again;
In the 300+ games TERRY has suited for CHELSEA, the team has won 65% of their matches, scored 1.9 goals/game and conceded 0.8 gpg.
In the 70+ games TERRY has not suited, CHELSEA have won 55% of their games, scored 1.9 goals per game and conceded 1.0 gpg.
That's a 10% decrease in wins and a 20% increase in goals conceded while the offence has still remained consistent.
Seeing a CHELSEA win therefore is unlikely, and these numbers have me leaning towards an OVER 2.5 at +120. PSG don't see players half the caliber of any CHELSEA starting XI player in the joke of a league and CHELSEA have always been a team dangerous on the counter especially under HIDDINK. Add to the fact that the DUTCHMAN has gotten a result in his first legs with CHELSEA in the KNOCKOUT-Semi stages of CL in 08-09 and betting PSG is no "easy" bet here. Will see where this line moves closer to kickoff.
Leans: PSG ML and OVER 2.5
ZENIT/BENFICA
AVB knows how to get results in CL. ZENIT have won their last 3 games away in PORTUGAL and AVB is clearly playing for a result to take back home to RUSSIA. BENFICA coming off a defeat against their rivals in which they dominated is also deflating. My numbers say draw at +200, but I can see a ZENIT straight up win here. If ZENIT get the early goal, they will defend until the 90th. BENFICA getting the early goal will also have them playing cautious not to concede and take the lead into frigid RUSSIA, where it's much easier to play for the draw. I see a cautious game played both ways
Leans: ZENIT +.5 and ZENIT/BENFICA U 2.5
Will post final plays 5 minutes before kickoff as always.
Broke even yesterday, LEEDS outplayed BORO but couldn't break the goose egg;
7-4-0 OVERALL
CL
It's that time of year again.
PSG/CHELSEA
*I lean hard towards PSG here but the line yesterday had me potentially seeing a draw. Line movement this morning has me leaning PSG but at -160 I'll have to think about it, if anybody can screw up a bet it's CHELSEA. I don't think the whole league view and that CHELSEA only have CL to play for applies here. PSG are 24 points clear atop the FRENCH league, sat players this week tied Lille so in terms of competition, PSG are all in on CL and don't need to sweat that joke of a FRENCH league. Here are sme interesting numbers on this game;
TERRY does play a factor for CHELSEA and although it was looking like he's lost a step, under MOURINHO the last couple of seasons he soared again;
In the 300+ games TERRY has suited for CHELSEA, the team has won 65% of their matches, scored 1.9 goals/game and conceded 0.8 gpg.
In the 70+ games TERRY has not suited, CHELSEA have won 55% of their games, scored 1.9 goals per game and conceded 1.0 gpg.
That's a 10% decrease in wins and a 20% increase in goals conceded while the offence has still remained consistent.
Seeing a CHELSEA win therefore is unlikely, and these numbers have me leaning towards an OVER 2.5 at +120. PSG don't see players half the caliber of any CHELSEA starting XI player in the joke of a league and CHELSEA have always been a team dangerous on the counter especially under HIDDINK. Add to the fact that the DUTCHMAN has gotten a result in his first legs with CHELSEA in the KNOCKOUT-Semi stages of CL in 08-09 and betting PSG is no "easy" bet here. Will see where this line moves closer to kickoff.
Leans: PSG ML and OVER 2.5
ZENIT/BENFICA
AVB knows how to get results in CL. ZENIT have won their last 3 games away in PORTUGAL and AVB is clearly playing for a result to take back home to RUSSIA. BENFICA coming off a defeat against their rivals in which they dominated is also deflating. My numbers say draw at +200, but I can see a ZENIT straight up win here. If ZENIT get the early goal, they will defend until the 90th. BENFICA getting the early goal will also have them playing cautious not to concede and take the lead into frigid RUSSIA, where it's much easier to play for the draw. I see a cautious game played both ways
Leans: ZENIT +.5 and ZENIT/BENFICA U 2.5
Will post final plays 5 minutes before kickoff as always.
I'm taking a stab here. Tracking BARCA over the last couple seasons scoring 6+ goals, normally lead to comfortable 2-0 W's in their next encounters. GIJON been playing some tight football lately and LUIS ENRIQUE is going back home. No embarrassment please.
I'm taking a stab here. Tracking BARCA over the last couple seasons scoring 6+ goals, normally lead to comfortable 2-0 W's in their next encounters. GIJON been playing some tight football lately and LUIS ENRIQUE is going back home. No embarrassment please.
Was leaning Real but the late line movement tells me that the ROMANS may cause them a problem once again. Although I have real running them out of Spain in the return leg.
Was leaning Real but the late line movement tells me that the ROMANS may cause them a problem once again. Although I have real running them out of Spain in the return leg.
1-1 yesterday should have stuck to my initial lean in CL but lines makers threw me off. Rolling on!
12-5-0 OVERaLL
Europa normally high scoring and dangerous;
MAN U ML
DORTMUND ML
Had MAN U at -125 yesterday and loved it, like has moved according to the action I'll parlay the two and get +120 on my investment here. Square yes but I have both winning convincingly.
TOTTENHAM PK
Much different tott ham side this year, doesn't seem like they're coming down, VIOLA have been up and down lately with a W against INTER hopefully we catch them here.
VILLAREAL PK
VILLAREAL +140
This is my POD. Napoli tough loss vs juve got overtaken in serie A with Milan on deck this week. Being a MIlAN fan, that game has become bigger than the MILAN derby the teams hate each other. No Jorginho in the mid will hurt Naples moving forward. Sandwhich game, no Jorginho VILLARREAL win.
1-1 yesterday should have stuck to my initial lean in CL but lines makers threw me off. Rolling on!
12-5-0 OVERaLL
Europa normally high scoring and dangerous;
MAN U ML
DORTMUND ML
Had MAN U at -125 yesterday and loved it, like has moved according to the action I'll parlay the two and get +120 on my investment here. Square yes but I have both winning convincingly.
TOTTENHAM PK
Much different tott ham side this year, doesn't seem like they're coming down, VIOLA have been up and down lately with a W against INTER hopefully we catch them here.
VILLAREAL PK
VILLAREAL +140
This is my POD. Napoli tough loss vs juve got overtaken in serie A with Milan on deck this week. Being a MIlAN fan, that game has become bigger than the MILAN derby the teams hate each other. No Jorginho in the mid will hurt Naples moving forward. Sandwhich game, no Jorginho VILLARREAL win.
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