Sporting CP - Belenenses
I'm Portuguese so I follow the Portuguese League regularly. After signing Benfica's previous manager (Jorge Jesus), Sporting has really propelled themselves into a serious title contender, where as in years past they'd start strong but then fall off. Jorge Jesus has the side believing in themselves and they are playing some very good free-flowing offensive football.
On Thursday, they came away with a 2-4 victory over Lokomotiv Moscow in Russia, and the Saturday prior to that they eliminated Benfica from the Portuguese Cup at home in a 2-1 victory in overtime. That was the third time they defeated Benfica this season, who are their same city rivals. Sporting hasn't defeated them 3 consecutive times in something like 53 years, so that's a sign that the Lions are flying high.
Looking at today's match, I see it difficult for Belenenses to come away with a result here. The visitors are 13th in the league standings, with 6 points separating them from the relegation zone. Meanwhile, Sporting tops the league with 26 points, having scored 19 and conceded 5 in 10 matches.
Sporting averages 1.9 goals per match, while Belenenses averages 1.2.
At home, SCP are undefeated in the league, winning three and drawing one, while away from home, Belenenses are the 2nd worst team in the league, claiming 2 its from 5 matches. 2 draws and 3 losses.
Adding to that, going back to 2000, Belenenses has lost 13 of 15 meetings between the two sides at the Alvalade Stadium, while the other 2 were a draw. I don't see this match being the chance for Belenenses to change those fortunes.
The line is currently at (-2) for Sporting, while the Over/Under is at 3. Against the top 4 teams this season, Belenenses has lost to Braga, Porto and Benfica already, having conceded 14, while scoring 0.
Final thoughts, I feel comfortable taking Sporting CP at (-2) thinking worst case this is a push, but I could see the hosts shipping 3 or 4 past this weak Belenenses side. On top of that, I like a small play on the Over 3.
Belenenses / Sporting CP (Over 3)
60 to win 50
Sporting CP (-2)
115 to win 100
BOL to everyone. Will also post my thoughts about the other matches soon.