Good couple of days in a row, hopefully Sunday is also one of them. Writeups below, as always - Sweden and Portugal only to remain disciplined and focused on two leagues which I follow week in and week out for several seasons. Fingers crossed for a nice wrapping up of the weekend. ___________________
Göteborg - Kalmar
With risk of taking a 'push' I still like Göteborg at home versus a Kalmar team with immense road problems, with 4 consecutive road losses and 2-11 in goal differential in these 4 losses (-9). Injuries are still piling up on Kalmar, who rare beat Gefle at home last time, with an injury time winner at the very end. Still, this Kalmar team is in the battle of the European spots in the standings, just like Göteborg which is why this clash is vital. So, Kalmar are without two main defenders, and two main midfielders, in other words 4 regulars missing. The replacements are of lower quality so Göteborg have every opportunity to be the dictating side here.
Göteborg, a team with big investments have brought in winger Rieks who I like, he seems to be the only positive thing in this team. Coach Mikael Stahre is under a bit of pressure but his team looks to have gained a little confidence after a tough road victory last time. Positive influences are noticeable and with a home record of 6-2-2 they are pretty solid (22-11 in goal differential on home soil). League top scorer Lasse Vibe with 14 goals should be able to find good space in Kalmar's rather new defensive line. Not to mention, Göteborg have scored 3, 5 and 2 goals in their last three matches, seems to find the net more often now. I like their chances to win, and I see it coming with at least two goals. No injuries for Göteborg who can field a strong team. _______________________
Benfica - Sporting
Lisbon derby, emotions, hate, aggressive.. yeah you can put any title on this match but it's a huge game in Lisbon between two bitter rivals from the same city. A match neither side would like to lose, but Benfica at home are always strong, even if they do not have the same team as last year they will remain favorites when they play at home.
Sporting look strengthened from last year, especially with the arrival of Nani and striker Slimani is back in the lineup after he tried to force a move, and was punished by the club to play with the reserves - but they forgave him and he is now back in the team.. motivated? Not sure. Sporting had struggles against Arouca, they parked the bus and it took 90 minutes to score the winner for Sporting. They are used to dictate games, but here is a match where they will see themselves have less of the ball and focus on defense more than usual. Coach Marco Silva is still building his team and philosophy but it will take some time until Sporting find their peak. Defensively I can not say I am impressed so far, they have some new faces in the back, such as French CB Sarr, and currently left back Cedric is injured. It looks desperate whenever the ball gets into the Sporting penalty area, very stressful actions and I think that if Benfica gets a regular attacking sense and just make sure to get balls into the Sporting area, they will generate very dangerous chances.
Benfica have pressure to win this game - a win would make many of the doubts disappear, and what better way is there than to beat the rivals? They have started the season well, but against weak opponents and this will be the first 'big test' for the current champions. New striker Derley is a big presence in the box and Gaitan/Salvio are speedsters on the flanks. Nah, overall Benfica's home advantage weighs heavier than Sportings current form and game play, at almost even money I like Benfica here who will be the dictating team. _______________________
Tondela - Academico Viseu
Second tier of Portugal, where Viseu hits the road which is why I placed a bet on this play. To begin with, Viseu have lost 80% of the team from last year, and moreover the reason behind the success also left - coach Ricardo Cheu have taken a job in the highest division instead. So, many new faces, new coach and new system for a traditionally weak road team have many disadvantages, which is also noticeable on the beginning so far (last place in the league). They were 3-5-13 on the road last year.
Tondela are one of the three unbeaten teams so far, although 3 draws and 1 victory does not sound impressive, but it is a sign of their "hard to beat" attitude. Against Viseu, who show many tendencies of weaknesses during the games this is an excellent chance for Tondela to claim vital three points to establish themselves among the top early on. They were 11-3-7 at home last year but 'should' improve those numbers because they look better on paper this season. Very decent price on a home victory which worries me a little bit because it's one of those 'too good to be true' odds. But I see no reason not to try it. ____________________________
Good couple of days in a row, hopefully Sunday is also one of them. Writeups below, as always - Sweden and Portugal only to remain disciplined and focused on two leagues which I follow week in and week out for several seasons. Fingers crossed for a nice wrapping up of the weekend. ___________________
Göteborg - Kalmar
With risk of taking a 'push' I still like Göteborg at home versus a Kalmar team with immense road problems, with 4 consecutive road losses and 2-11 in goal differential in these 4 losses (-9). Injuries are still piling up on Kalmar, who rare beat Gefle at home last time, with an injury time winner at the very end. Still, this Kalmar team is in the battle of the European spots in the standings, just like Göteborg which is why this clash is vital. So, Kalmar are without two main defenders, and two main midfielders, in other words 4 regulars missing. The replacements are of lower quality so Göteborg have every opportunity to be the dictating side here.
Göteborg, a team with big investments have brought in winger Rieks who I like, he seems to be the only positive thing in this team. Coach Mikael Stahre is under a bit of pressure but his team looks to have gained a little confidence after a tough road victory last time. Positive influences are noticeable and with a home record of 6-2-2 they are pretty solid (22-11 in goal differential on home soil). League top scorer Lasse Vibe with 14 goals should be able to find good space in Kalmar's rather new defensive line. Not to mention, Göteborg have scored 3, 5 and 2 goals in their last three matches, seems to find the net more often now. I like their chances to win, and I see it coming with at least two goals. No injuries for Göteborg who can field a strong team. _______________________
Benfica - Sporting
Lisbon derby, emotions, hate, aggressive.. yeah you can put any title on this match but it's a huge game in Lisbon between two bitter rivals from the same city. A match neither side would like to lose, but Benfica at home are always strong, even if they do not have the same team as last year they will remain favorites when they play at home.
Sporting look strengthened from last year, especially with the arrival of Nani and striker Slimani is back in the lineup after he tried to force a move, and was punished by the club to play with the reserves - but they forgave him and he is now back in the team.. motivated? Not sure. Sporting had struggles against Arouca, they parked the bus and it took 90 minutes to score the winner for Sporting. They are used to dictate games, but here is a match where they will see themselves have less of the ball and focus on defense more than usual. Coach Marco Silva is still building his team and philosophy but it will take some time until Sporting find their peak. Defensively I can not say I am impressed so far, they have some new faces in the back, such as French CB Sarr, and currently left back Cedric is injured. It looks desperate whenever the ball gets into the Sporting penalty area, very stressful actions and I think that if Benfica gets a regular attacking sense and just make sure to get balls into the Sporting area, they will generate very dangerous chances.
Benfica have pressure to win this game - a win would make many of the doubts disappear, and what better way is there than to beat the rivals? They have started the season well, but against weak opponents and this will be the first 'big test' for the current champions. New striker Derley is a big presence in the box and Gaitan/Salvio are speedsters on the flanks. Nah, overall Benfica's home advantage weighs heavier than Sportings current form and game play, at almost even money I like Benfica here who will be the dictating team. _______________________
Tondela - Academico Viseu
Second tier of Portugal, where Viseu hits the road which is why I placed a bet on this play. To begin with, Viseu have lost 80% of the team from last year, and moreover the reason behind the success also left - coach Ricardo Cheu have taken a job in the highest division instead. So, many new faces, new coach and new system for a traditionally weak road team have many disadvantages, which is also noticeable on the beginning so far (last place in the league). They were 3-5-13 on the road last year.
Tondela are one of the three unbeaten teams so far, although 3 draws and 1 victory does not sound impressive, but it is a sign of their "hard to beat" attitude. Against Viseu, who show many tendencies of weaknesses during the games this is an excellent chance for Tondela to claim vital three points to establish themselves among the top early on. They were 11-3-7 at home last year but 'should' improve those numbers because they look better on paper this season. Very decent price on a home victory which worries me a little bit because it's one of those 'too good to be true' odds. But I see no reason not to try it. ____________________________
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