It's always difficult to predict the first round especially but I will stick to two plays.. one Saturday and one Sunday play.
Portugal picks 2014/2015 season
(RoI +44.50%) YTD 4-2-0 (66.67%)
+3.56 units
One unit will be the standard stake for a couple of rounds in order to remain disciplined and try to be as accurate as possible.
Saturday (09/08)
Santa Clara - Oriental Lisboa: Pick: Santa Clara @ 1.85 (1/10)
Santa Clara were in big crisis last season after a horrible campaign but this was mostly due to financial problems and they had to fight at the bottom of the standings until they went on a good stretch of games towards the end of the season and survived. The finances are still not great but they have solved many of the problems - for example, last season they had a limited group of players, without motivation because they received their salaries several months too late. Now all of that is sorted and they look like a stable club again, a talented young bunch of players led by a new coach Claudio Braga who used to coach Utrecht's youth team in Holland. He was appointed this summer and have had a good influence on the team with positive results. The team play their games on the beautiful island of Azores, and in Portugal - for some reasons, all the island teams are particularly strong.. the same goes for teams from the Madeira island, they might not always have the best team on paper but they have their own local feeling, it's pretty special. Santa Clara should not be as bad as last year, with a squad in this good condition and mood they should manage to stay around the middle.
Oriental, a newly promoted side from the capital city, they are an old team with an average squad age of 27 years old, so there is some experience in the team but ability wise they are slow and more of the hard working group - not too fancy with the technical side of soccer. I will trust their ability at home, but as a road team and newcomers - to travel to the Azore islands, it's a tough challenge right away. They have proven their ability to score but the home factor in Portugal is perhaps stronger than in most leagues around Europe, thereof I like Santa Clara who look to be new born - new coach, new inspiration and will likely overachieve for a couple of games. Facing the newcomers is a soft start but playable price which I will take with a unit.
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Sunday (10/08)
Farense - Sporting B: Pick: Sporting B @ 2.57 (1/10)
My first intention was to play Sporting B PK, but then I thought to myself it's better to go for the straight victory because the price is just way off, should not be higher than 1.90, and we get 2.50 and upwards, the price has already started to drop and I think it might be closer to 1.90 as we approach kickoff on Sunday.
Farense, the hosts will probably have a difficult season although it is hard to judge already, but the three games I have seen in the cup (with a primary team) did not impress at all when they left the pitch scoreless 3 consecutive matches. The offense has been slow, the defense shaky and spend most time chasing the possession. I am expecting a rough season for them, and they face a top 5 side right away when Sporting's Reserves come to visit.
Sporting have possibly the most talented academy in Portugal and among Europe, Iluri Medeiros, Esagaio, Mane, Gauld.. these are all usually included with the first team of Sporting, but will continue moving up and down between the first and reserve teams. The talent pool in the team is very wide, so they will always have options available. The positive thing with Sporting and other reserve teams is that they consist of all hungry and eager players to prove themselves being good enough for the first team and might be selected for the Champions League squad when Sporting's first team will compete there. The organization itself is the most well handled club in the country right now, and their B team is no exception. I definitely like their chances against a very average Farense side. Sporting's talents should win over 90 minutes, price is way off according to me.
BOL!