Well...my last pick didn't work out to well (England to win 2:1 and to advance). Until England collapsed in the PKs I was hoping to at least get a win with England advancing. But it didn't work out.
However, we will try to win some money today.
This isn't friendly anymore.
From one side Portugal looks very interesting with their 4-3-3 formation. Their attacking trio Ronaldo-Postiga-Nani have showed good performance by scoring 4 out of team's 6 goals. Will Paulo Bento play the same formation against Spain? I think yes, except Almeida will take Postiga's spot. He used this formation against all opponents including Germany and Netherlands. From my point of view it will be brave move by Paulo Bento as playing this formation will open a lot of spaces for Spain midfielders. Last time Portugal met Spain in friendly game in 2010, they won 4:0....good memories, but they really should forget it as now Spain playing for crown - it means they will face highly skilled and motivated opponent.
Spain uses its control of the ball as both a combative and paralyzing agent. “When we eventually did get it we were so exhausted from chasing that we couldn’t do anything with it,” Germany’s Miroslav Klose explained after his team’s semifinal exit at the hands of Spain at the 2010 World Cup.
It is true that Spain’s idiosyncratic style has grown more pronounced since its mainstream debut at the 2008 European Championships, with statistics revealing that their average possession share has increased from 56 percent four years ago and 65 percent at the World Cup two years ago to 68 percent at Euro 2012.
I just don’t quite understand the line today. You can get Portugal +1/2 at -105 which would give you a winner with any Portugal win and a tie (90 minutes game). At the same time, straight win on Portugal is about +350 and a tie +230. Assuming, you are sure of Portugal win or at a tie, you can take all 3 picks and here is the outcome:
Portugal wins – you collect 1 unit on +1/2 and 3.5 units on direct win. You lost 1 unit on the tie. Net profit 3.5 units.
Game ends in a tie – you collect 1 unit on +1/2 and 2.3 units on the tie. You lost 1 unit on the direct win. Net profit 2.3 units.
The only bad outcome is when Spain wins in 90 minutes – you would have lost 3 units.
So what gives? 2 our 3 outcomes result in a profit. Why the books would be doing this??? Isn’t this telling you that they want you to take Portugal?
Portugal’s record at this tournament should be considered a great achievement given the fact they they’ve been distributed in the Group of Death. They will rely heavily on CR7; however, I don’t see performing very well today. I expect no surprises here. Spain will crush down Portugal until they will find a winner.
Prediction: Spain 2:0 or 2:1 Spain to advance
Good Luck!