Some of the things I look at when betting college teams are the following: Coaches #1, QBs #2, and defense #3
Of those 3 which of these two teams have the advantage? And by how big of a margin?
Lets compare coaches first
Bobby Petrino V Ed Orgeron
One coach is an offensive genius while the other has essentially been a stop gap coach. Yes Orgeron was hired by LSU BUT how low on their list was his name? Rumors were Orgeron even promised to bring in KIffin as his OC if he was hired. Orgeron is a decent enough guy who has fixed his life from back when he was coaching the Canes but he is far from being HC material. He was awful at Ole Miss and had a decent little run as USC interim coach. He's been decent at LSU but who exactly has LSU beaten?
Petrino has had a month to prepare for this vaunted D of LSU and there are only a few coaches who you'd rather have than Petrino to have that much time to prepare an offense.
How bout the QBs?
We have a Heisman winner, Heisman winners have won their last 7 bowl games, with a little chip on his shoulder after the last two losses against Danny Etling, a guy who couldn't play at Purdue. In Louisville's 3 losses they faced dynamic offenses in Clemson, Houston, and Kentucky. LSU is not a dynamic offense espeically without Fournette. The one thing Louisville does is force turnovers, Watson had 4 against them, Kentucky had two against them. Heck in two of their losses they had leads! If LSU gets down early can Etling lead a comeback?
Lastly the defenses. I can't compare them equally for two reasons. One defense is facing a statue with limited accuracy while the other is facing the current Heisman winner. It's easy to say LSU's defense is amazing but who exactly have they played? Name me one QB they faced who is even close to the level of Jackson. While UL's defense isn't the greatest they do force turnovers as mentioned before. The biggest thing is they are facing a terible QB so they can focus on containing the run game and forcing Etling to beat them, basically what they did with Dalvin Cook ands FSU
Some of the things I look at when betting college teams are the following: Coaches #1, QBs #2, and defense #3
Of those 3 which of these two teams have the advantage? And by how big of a margin?
Lets compare coaches first
Bobby Petrino V Ed Orgeron
One coach is an offensive genius while the other has essentially been a stop gap coach. Yes Orgeron was hired by LSU BUT how low on their list was his name? Rumors were Orgeron even promised to bring in KIffin as his OC if he was hired. Orgeron is a decent enough guy who has fixed his life from back when he was coaching the Canes but he is far from being HC material. He was awful at Ole Miss and had a decent little run as USC interim coach. He's been decent at LSU but who exactly has LSU beaten?
Petrino has had a month to prepare for this vaunted D of LSU and there are only a few coaches who you'd rather have than Petrino to have that much time to prepare an offense.
How bout the QBs?
We have a Heisman winner, Heisman winners have won their last 7 bowl games, with a little chip on his shoulder after the last two losses against Danny Etling, a guy who couldn't play at Purdue. In Louisville's 3 losses they faced dynamic offenses in Clemson, Houston, and Kentucky. LSU is not a dynamic offense espeically without Fournette. The one thing Louisville does is force turnovers, Watson had 4 against them, Kentucky had two against them. Heck in two of their losses they had leads! If LSU gets down early can Etling lead a comeback?
Lastly the defenses. I can't compare them equally for two reasons. One defense is facing a statue with limited accuracy while the other is facing the current Heisman winner. It's easy to say LSU's defense is amazing but who exactly have they played? Name me one QB they faced who is even close to the level of Jackson. While UL's defense isn't the greatest they do force turnovers as mentioned before. The biggest thing is they are facing a terible QB so they can focus on containing the run game and forcing Etling to beat them, basically what they did with Dalvin Cook ands FSU
strongly disagree...I think you underestimate how much better the LSU D v. Louisville D. Yes, LSU D held Alabama O to 0 points for 3 quarters...in Baton Rougue. Lamar is a special player, and Petrino will find the "few" weaknesses in Aranda's D...but it won't be enough...LSU will dominate both lines. The only way I could see an upset is if LSU were to be disinterested, and prima facie (with the exception of LF), it appears that they are all in...GL on your other picks...
strongly disagree...I think you underestimate how much better the LSU D v. Louisville D. Yes, LSU D held Alabama O to 0 points for 3 quarters...in Baton Rougue. Lamar is a special player, and Petrino will find the "few" weaknesses in Aranda's D...but it won't be enough...LSU will dominate both lines. The only way I could see an upset is if LSU were to be disinterested, and prima facie (with the exception of LF), it appears that they are all in...GL on your other picks...
Great write up. UofL run defense actually ranks higher #9 compared to LSU run defense at #19. UofL defense is underrated. But like u said UofL defense doesn't have to be great because they are facing a mediocre QB. I will take the better more dynamic offense in a bowl game. Should be a great game. Good luck
Great write up. UofL run defense actually ranks higher #9 compared to LSU run defense at #19. UofL defense is underrated. But like u said UofL defense doesn't have to be great because they are facing a mediocre QB. I will take the better more dynamic offense in a bowl game. Should be a great game. Good luck
Vegas love gamblers like you who bringing in all the statistics. Only if it was that easy. The one one statistic they care is where the public money flow. Public lose, house wins! Otherwise, casinos would go out of business period
Vegas love gamblers like you who bringing in all the statistics. Only if it was that easy. The one one statistic they care is where the public money flow. Public lose, house wins! Otherwise, casinos would go out of business period
Vegas love gamblers like you who bringing in all the statistics. Only if it was that easy. The one one statistic they care is where the public money flow. Public lose, house wins! Otherwise, casinos would go out of business period
Yea. and you're just a regular tool, busting on a guys excellent post, that took a lot more time and energy than 95% of the ones on this site .... fly on now you bug !!
Great write up, although personally I can't find a safe, viable way to bet this game, just too many questions for me ... GOOD LUCK !
Vegas love gamblers like you who bringing in all the statistics. Only if it was that easy. The one one statistic they care is where the public money flow. Public lose, house wins! Otherwise, casinos would go out of business period
Yea. and you're just a regular tool, busting on a guys excellent post, that took a lot more time and energy than 95% of the ones on this site .... fly on now you bug !!
Great write up, although personally I can't find a safe, viable way to bet this game, just too many questions for me ... GOOD LUCK !
Please allow me to help you out. You have to ask yourself a couple questions here. 1- why is LSU favored by 3 with a bandaid coach and their star RB out? 2- why are they favored when it's clear that they don't have the better QB.....BY FAR!
Here's why. Football is a power sport at the end of the day. You can have all the trickery and offensive genius you want but when that power and strength gets a hold of you and you can't stop it, all the scheming goes out the window. Look at the Georgia/TCU game yesterday. TCU looked great the 1st half with all their speed and it seemed like they were gonna walk all over Ga. But what happens in football is adrenaline and excitement gets you through the 1st half, kind of like a rivalry game it can go either way, but the 2nd half tells the truth of the matter. Ga couldn't do anything offensively in their run game initially but by the end of the game they could've put me in the backfield and I would've gained yards against TCU.
This is what makes the SEC the most dominant conference. The upper echelon teams in this conference have great size on both sides of the line of scrimmage. LSU's front will be able to dominate UofL's front on on both sides. Maybe not so much in the 1st half but I look for the separation to happen in the 2nd half, once the hype has passed and everyone is settled. As long as LSU's defense keeps the game close in the 1st half they won't need their QB to do much. Hand it right and left and throw a hitch or flat route every now and again. As far as Fournette being out.......running backs come a dime a dozen. That's why few NFL teams put much stock at that position. Just plug another guy in and keep it moving. Hell, its LSU, I'm sure they have another 5 star in the batter's box.
So...I said all that to say this. LSU -2.5 for straight cash. (Bought the half point to stop the fu*kery)
Please allow me to help you out. You have to ask yourself a couple questions here. 1- why is LSU favored by 3 with a bandaid coach and their star RB out? 2- why are they favored when it's clear that they don't have the better QB.....BY FAR!
Here's why. Football is a power sport at the end of the day. You can have all the trickery and offensive genius you want but when that power and strength gets a hold of you and you can't stop it, all the scheming goes out the window. Look at the Georgia/TCU game yesterday. TCU looked great the 1st half with all their speed and it seemed like they were gonna walk all over Ga. But what happens in football is adrenaline and excitement gets you through the 1st half, kind of like a rivalry game it can go either way, but the 2nd half tells the truth of the matter. Ga couldn't do anything offensively in their run game initially but by the end of the game they could've put me in the backfield and I would've gained yards against TCU.
This is what makes the SEC the most dominant conference. The upper echelon teams in this conference have great size on both sides of the line of scrimmage. LSU's front will be able to dominate UofL's front on on both sides. Maybe not so much in the 1st half but I look for the separation to happen in the 2nd half, once the hype has passed and everyone is settled. As long as LSU's defense keeps the game close in the 1st half they won't need their QB to do much. Hand it right and left and throw a hitch or flat route every now and again. As far as Fournette being out.......running backs come a dime a dozen. That's why few NFL teams put much stock at that position. Just plug another guy in and keep it moving. Hell, its LSU, I'm sure they have another 5 star in the batter's box.
So...I said all that to say this. LSU -2.5 for straight cash. (Bought the half point to stop the fu*kery)
Please allow me to help you out. You have to ask yourself a couple questions here. 1- why is LSU favored by 3 with a bandaid coach and their star RB out? 2- why are they favored when it's clear that they don't have the better QB.....BY FAR!Here's why. Football is a power sport at the end of the day. You can have all the trickery and offensive genius you want but when that power and strength gets a hold of you and you can't stop it, all the scheming goes out the window. Look at the Georgia/TCU game yesterday. TCU looked great the 1st half with all their speed and it seemed like they were gonna walk all over Ga. But what happens in football is adrenaline and excitement gets you through the 1st half, kind of like a rivalry game it can go either way, but the 2nd half tells the truth of the matter. Ga couldn't do anything offensively in their run game initially but by the end of the game they could've put me in the backfield and I would've gained yards against TCU. This is what makes the SEC the most dominant conference. The upper echelon teams in this conference have great size on both sides of the line of scrimmage. LSU's front will be able to dominate UofL's front on on both sides. Maybe not so much in the 1st half but I look for the separation to happen in the 2nd half, once the hype has passed and everyone is settled. As long as LSU's defense keeps the game close in the 1st half they won't need their QB to do much. Hand it right and left and throw a hitch or flat route every now and again. As far as Fournette being out.......running backs come a dime a dozen. That's why few NFL teams put much stock at that position. Just plug another guy in and keep it moving. Hell, its LSU, I'm sure they have another 5 star in the batter's box. So...I said all that to say this. LSU -2.5 for straight cash. (Bought the half point to stop the fu*kery)
UL lost their last two games if the season, if they were 11-1 would this line be -3 LSU?
What a terrible post about RBs, Fournette is once in a lifetime RB along with a guy like Cook, sorry but he will be missed and you can't just plug in any ol player in his place.
This SEC domination thing has to be the biggest load of crock that's been spewed. It's basically Bama and that's about it, name one SEC team that has looked impressive, the media overhype's the SEC every year.
It's funny by the way you posted it would seem LSU is going to beat down UL but you still bought half a point? Makes sense
Please allow me to help you out. You have to ask yourself a couple questions here. 1- why is LSU favored by 3 with a bandaid coach and their star RB out? 2- why are they favored when it's clear that they don't have the better QB.....BY FAR!Here's why. Football is a power sport at the end of the day. You can have all the trickery and offensive genius you want but when that power and strength gets a hold of you and you can't stop it, all the scheming goes out the window. Look at the Georgia/TCU game yesterday. TCU looked great the 1st half with all their speed and it seemed like they were gonna walk all over Ga. But what happens in football is adrenaline and excitement gets you through the 1st half, kind of like a rivalry game it can go either way, but the 2nd half tells the truth of the matter. Ga couldn't do anything offensively in their run game initially but by the end of the game they could've put me in the backfield and I would've gained yards against TCU. This is what makes the SEC the most dominant conference. The upper echelon teams in this conference have great size on both sides of the line of scrimmage. LSU's front will be able to dominate UofL's front on on both sides. Maybe not so much in the 1st half but I look for the separation to happen in the 2nd half, once the hype has passed and everyone is settled. As long as LSU's defense keeps the game close in the 1st half they won't need their QB to do much. Hand it right and left and throw a hitch or flat route every now and again. As far as Fournette being out.......running backs come a dime a dozen. That's why few NFL teams put much stock at that position. Just plug another guy in and keep it moving. Hell, its LSU, I'm sure they have another 5 star in the batter's box. So...I said all that to say this. LSU -2.5 for straight cash. (Bought the half point to stop the fu*kery)
UL lost their last two games if the season, if they were 11-1 would this line be -3 LSU?
What a terrible post about RBs, Fournette is once in a lifetime RB along with a guy like Cook, sorry but he will be missed and you can't just plug in any ol player in his place.
This SEC domination thing has to be the biggest load of crock that's been spewed. It's basically Bama and that's about it, name one SEC team that has looked impressive, the media overhype's the SEC every year.
It's funny by the way you posted it would seem LSU is going to beat down UL but you still bought half a point? Makes sense
UL lost their last two games if the season, if they were 11-1 would this line be -3 LSU?
What a terrible post about RBs, Fournette is once in a lifetime RB along with a guy like Cook, sorry but he will be missed and you can't just plug in any ol player in his place.
This SEC domination thing has to be the biggest load of crock that's been spewed. It's basically Bama and that's about it, name one SEC team that has looked impressive, the media overhype's the SEC every year.
It's funny by the way you posted it would seem LSU is going to beat down UL but you still bought half a point? Makes sense
UL lost their last two games if the season, if they were 11-1 would this line be -3 LSU?
What a terrible post about RBs, Fournette is once in a lifetime RB along with a guy like Cook, sorry but he will be missed and you can't just plug in any ol player in his place.
This SEC domination thing has to be the biggest load of crock that's been spewed. It's basically Bama and that's about it, name one SEC team that has looked impressive, the media overhype's the SEC every year.
It's funny by the way you posted it would seem LSU is going to beat down UL but you still bought half a point? Makes sense
Defense wins more often than not- LSU's defense is as legit as it gets and they proved it today- I thought Louisville has a chance just because of Jackson but the line said otherwise- Guice is a very special back who is very similar to Cook
Defense wins more often than not- LSU's defense is as legit as it gets and they proved it today- I thought Louisville has a chance just because of Jackson but the line said otherwise- Guice is a very special back who is very similar to Cook
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