I figured I'd start a thread about one of the first bowl games, provide some information I think is relevant to the spread, and hopefully other people will add their thoughts to it.
Bowl: Las Vegas Bowl San Diego State vs Houston
Kickoff: 12/17 3:30 EST
Weather: 66 degrees with clear sky's
Opening Line: Houston -3 OU 60
Current Line: Houston -3.5 -4 OU 54.5
The first point that I want to make is that I think people need to be careful not to let their memory of Houston dismantling Louisville affect their idea of this game too much. Houston played a great game, but the circumstances surrounding that game, are completely different than the circumstances surrounding the Las Vegas Bowl...
First and foremost Houston played Louisville at home in a front of a sold out crowd, and the stadium was a rocking. This was a thursday night game, so Louisville had to travel on a short week, Houston was a 17 point underdog, and their coaching staff was still intact...That win also looks less impressive, after watching Louisville limp to the finish line. Louisville nearly lost to Wake Forest, got annihilated at Houston, and lost to Kentucky in their season finale... Momentum plays such an important role in college football, more so than most other sports, this is why teams have such a tough time winning a night game in Death Valley. When that momentum swings in favor of the home team, there are very few College football teams that are good enough to fight through the adversity and win the game. When Louisville fumbled the opening kickoff and Houston went up 7-0 in the first 30 seconds, i knew Louisville was in for a tough night. There's no denying that Houston played a really good game, especially defensively, but Louisville played terrible, so I think that needs to be kept in perspective.
The next aspect of this game that I think could play a major role in SDST favor is that at this point in the season SDST is the much more stable team, and Houston has to be disappointed with this bowl game. Not only did this team underachieve, but they also lost their head coach, who took the Texas head coaching job. Remember, this Houston team beat Florida State in the Peach Bowl last year. After beating Oklahoma in week 3, every pundit thought Houston had a chance at the College Football Playoff. There's no doubt that Houston had higher expectations for their post season, and have to look at San Diego State, and the Las Vegas Bowl as a real let down. I think we would be foolish not to question,Houston's motivation to win this game. The Las Vegas bowl is a game played at 12:30 local time, and in front of approximately 35,000 people. This has to feel a lot less significant than their home finale against a 5th ranked Louisville team...
I figured I'd start a thread about one of the first bowl games, provide some information I think is relevant to the spread, and hopefully other people will add their thoughts to it.
Bowl: Las Vegas Bowl San Diego State vs Houston
Kickoff: 12/17 3:30 EST
Weather: 66 degrees with clear sky's
Opening Line: Houston -3 OU 60
Current Line: Houston -3.5 -4 OU 54.5
The first point that I want to make is that I think people need to be careful not to let their memory of Houston dismantling Louisville affect their idea of this game too much. Houston played a great game, but the circumstances surrounding that game, are completely different than the circumstances surrounding the Las Vegas Bowl...
First and foremost Houston played Louisville at home in a front of a sold out crowd, and the stadium was a rocking. This was a thursday night game, so Louisville had to travel on a short week, Houston was a 17 point underdog, and their coaching staff was still intact...That win also looks less impressive, after watching Louisville limp to the finish line. Louisville nearly lost to Wake Forest, got annihilated at Houston, and lost to Kentucky in their season finale... Momentum plays such an important role in college football, more so than most other sports, this is why teams have such a tough time winning a night game in Death Valley. When that momentum swings in favor of the home team, there are very few College football teams that are good enough to fight through the adversity and win the game. When Louisville fumbled the opening kickoff and Houston went up 7-0 in the first 30 seconds, i knew Louisville was in for a tough night. There's no denying that Houston played a really good game, especially defensively, but Louisville played terrible, so I think that needs to be kept in perspective.
The next aspect of this game that I think could play a major role in SDST favor is that at this point in the season SDST is the much more stable team, and Houston has to be disappointed with this bowl game. Not only did this team underachieve, but they also lost their head coach, who took the Texas head coaching job. Remember, this Houston team beat Florida State in the Peach Bowl last year. After beating Oklahoma in week 3, every pundit thought Houston had a chance at the College Football Playoff. There's no doubt that Houston had higher expectations for their post season, and have to look at San Diego State, and the Las Vegas Bowl as a real let down. I think we would be foolish not to question,Houston's motivation to win this game. The Las Vegas bowl is a game played at 12:30 local time, and in front of approximately 35,000 people. This has to feel a lot less significant than their home finale against a 5th ranked Louisville team...
Houston has been a bad road team all year, losing 3/5 road games on the season. They lost at Navy, at SMU, and lost the ;last game of the season at Memphis 48-44. They also struggled against a poor Cincinnati team, before pulling away late... I dont know what kind of effort we'll see out of Houston, but for a team that already struggles on the road, it's hard to imagine that a week in Vegas, and an interim head coach,would be anything other than a negative for the Cougars.
Now as far as on the field match up's go, I think Houston's defense matches up very good against the Aztecs. San Diego State has trouble moving the ball through the air, relying heavily on their running game. If SDST becomes one dimensional, Houston could really dominate this game. Houston's defense only allows 2,9 YPC and they did a great job shutting down Dalvin Cook in last years Peach Bowl. Although last year's Houston team had NFL rookie standouts like William Jackson III, and defensive captain and leading tackler ILB Elandon Roberts, the entire defensive line returned for their senior season. Not only do they have the same DLine that was so important at shutting Dalvin Cook down, they also have a star OLB Steven Nelson who will be an early draft pick. This alone should be scary enough for San Diego State, and Donnell Pumphrey, but they also added first team All-American to the mix...
Although Houston's defense may match up well against San Diego State, I think the Aztecs defense match up just as well against the Houston Offense. Greg Ward will be playing in his last College game, but he's been dealing with shoulder and leg soreness. The reason that I bring this up, is because SDST has mastered Rocky Long's 3-3-5 defense. Calvin Munson, and Kaizee are perfect fits in the defense, and not only do they do a great job of disguising coverage's, baiting QB into INT's, I'm expecting at least two int's, but when they bring pressure, they're pretty successful at hitting the QB. If anything happened to Ward, they wont have their back up QB Kyle Postma, who was injured when he was forced to fill in for Ward after he Tulane knocked Ward out of the game....
I expect that the Aztecs will be excited to play a program like Houston, and might feel like it's their first chance of beating a team that the media has held in high regard throughout the season. Rocky Long and the Aztecs were just as impressive in their bowl game last year, beating Cincinnati 42-7 , easily covering the 3 pt spread... The Aztec's arent a team that beat's themselves. They rely on a strong run game, a strong defense, winning the Turnover margin, and not getting penalties.
If they are able to win the Turnover battle, stay on schedule offensively, and win the ST battle, they will win this game SU. Houston has struggled in just about every game they've played. Not only did they lose to SMU, Navy, and Memphis, but I think their prime time victory over Louisville has a lot of people forgetting that they almost lost to Cincinnati, Central Florida, and Tulsa. Houston had issues with Tulane, and they didnt score a point the entire second half. If you ignore the Louisville game, this team has been a weak offensive team, and an average defense... Obviously you cant just pretend like the Louisville game didnt happen, but IMO that had just as much to do with Louisville falling apart than Houston playing great. There defense didnt play like that before the Louisville game, and they followed that performance up by allowing Memphis to score 48 points in their season finale... I think their defense could be a bit overrated, they played great against offenses like Cincy, Tulane, and UCF, but they also got gashed vs Tulsa, Memphis, Navy, and SMU... I expect them to have one of their better games of the season, because SDST relies so heavily on the run, and their offense can become a bit predictable. This is my biggest concern, but if UCF and Tulane can move the ball, I think the Aztecs will be able to as well..
Houston has been a bad road team all year, losing 3/5 road games on the season. They lost at Navy, at SMU, and lost the ;last game of the season at Memphis 48-44. They also struggled against a poor Cincinnati team, before pulling away late... I dont know what kind of effort we'll see out of Houston, but for a team that already struggles on the road, it's hard to imagine that a week in Vegas, and an interim head coach,would be anything other than a negative for the Cougars.
Now as far as on the field match up's go, I think Houston's defense matches up very good against the Aztecs. San Diego State has trouble moving the ball through the air, relying heavily on their running game. If SDST becomes one dimensional, Houston could really dominate this game. Houston's defense only allows 2,9 YPC and they did a great job shutting down Dalvin Cook in last years Peach Bowl. Although last year's Houston team had NFL rookie standouts like William Jackson III, and defensive captain and leading tackler ILB Elandon Roberts, the entire defensive line returned for their senior season. Not only do they have the same DLine that was so important at shutting Dalvin Cook down, they also have a star OLB Steven Nelson who will be an early draft pick. This alone should be scary enough for San Diego State, and Donnell Pumphrey, but they also added first team All-American to the mix...
Although Houston's defense may match up well against San Diego State, I think the Aztecs defense match up just as well against the Houston Offense. Greg Ward will be playing in his last College game, but he's been dealing with shoulder and leg soreness. The reason that I bring this up, is because SDST has mastered Rocky Long's 3-3-5 defense. Calvin Munson, and Kaizee are perfect fits in the defense, and not only do they do a great job of disguising coverage's, baiting QB into INT's, I'm expecting at least two int's, but when they bring pressure, they're pretty successful at hitting the QB. If anything happened to Ward, they wont have their back up QB Kyle Postma, who was injured when he was forced to fill in for Ward after he Tulane knocked Ward out of the game....
I expect that the Aztecs will be excited to play a program like Houston, and might feel like it's their first chance of beating a team that the media has held in high regard throughout the season. Rocky Long and the Aztecs were just as impressive in their bowl game last year, beating Cincinnati 42-7 , easily covering the 3 pt spread... The Aztec's arent a team that beat's themselves. They rely on a strong run game, a strong defense, winning the Turnover margin, and not getting penalties.
If they are able to win the Turnover battle, stay on schedule offensively, and win the ST battle, they will win this game SU. Houston has struggled in just about every game they've played. Not only did they lose to SMU, Navy, and Memphis, but I think their prime time victory over Louisville has a lot of people forgetting that they almost lost to Cincinnati, Central Florida, and Tulsa. Houston had issues with Tulane, and they didnt score a point the entire second half. If you ignore the Louisville game, this team has been a weak offensive team, and an average defense... Obviously you cant just pretend like the Louisville game didnt happen, but IMO that had just as much to do with Louisville falling apart than Houston playing great. There defense didnt play like that before the Louisville game, and they followed that performance up by allowing Memphis to score 48 points in their season finale... I think their defense could be a bit overrated, they played great against offenses like Cincy, Tulane, and UCF, but they also got gashed vs Tulsa, Memphis, Navy, and SMU... I expect them to have one of their better games of the season, because SDST relies so heavily on the run, and their offense can become a bit predictable. This is my biggest concern, but if UCF and Tulane can move the ball, I think the Aztecs will be able to as well..
Sorry, I had to repost this... I was accused of preaching Houston and the over; This also doesnt include all relevant statistical information. I was a little insulted when somebody told me I was lying and if I did take SDST, it was just a lucky guess... I spent at least 8 hours on this game, but I think it's important to take pride in your work...
This write up, might even be more accurate than my Colorado/Washington write up... My favorite part is how specific the details are, not only did I say Ward would have a bad day, I said that Rocky Long's 3-3-5 defense would cause fits for Greg Ward. I mentioned how this complex defense finally has a star player at the LB and CB level... I predicted that Calvin Munson and Kaizee would bait Ward into throwing a few Int's, and that Long would be mixing exotic blitzes with other complex coverage schemes in order to hit the QB. It was masterfully executed, and not only was Ward picking himself off the ground routinely, Munson got his first career INT...
Alright that's the end of SDST/Houston on to the next one...
Sorry, I had to repost this... I was accused of preaching Houston and the over; This also doesnt include all relevant statistical information. I was a little insulted when somebody told me I was lying and if I did take SDST, it was just a lucky guess... I spent at least 8 hours on this game, but I think it's important to take pride in your work...
This write up, might even be more accurate than my Colorado/Washington write up... My favorite part is how specific the details are, not only did I say Ward would have a bad day, I said that Rocky Long's 3-3-5 defense would cause fits for Greg Ward. I mentioned how this complex defense finally has a star player at the LB and CB level... I predicted that Calvin Munson and Kaizee would bait Ward into throwing a few Int's, and that Long would be mixing exotic blitzes with other complex coverage schemes in order to hit the QB. It was masterfully executed, and not only was Ward picking himself off the ground routinely, Munson got his first career INT...
Alright that's the end of SDST/Houston on to the next one...
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