TD - '86 was tough, but '03, '07, '13 - can't complain. Will miss Papi tho.
Man, this BSU game is just a statistical nightmare for WY. BSU #7 ranked rush D (S+P), and WY runs over 62% of their plays. BSU #7 ranked Pass O vs #83 D. And WY is really prone to giving up big plays, as much as BSU is to getting them.
Was hesitant due to winning WY last week (tho it was 8 pts against lowly nevada), and thinking they have a little something going on, but if BSU comes to play...thanks for making me look harder.
Always happy to talk college gambling.
There it is! Love me some Connelly data for the matchup review. I had Wyoming -3 as my largest play last week and now I'm against them here. It happens.
TD - '86 was tough, but '03, '07, '13 - can't complain. Will miss Papi tho.
Man, this BSU game is just a statistical nightmare for WY. BSU #7 ranked rush D (S+P), and WY runs over 62% of their plays. BSU #7 ranked Pass O vs #83 D. And WY is really prone to giving up big plays, as much as BSU is to getting them.
Was hesitant due to winning WY last week (tho it was 8 pts against lowly nevada), and thinking they have a little something going on, but if BSU comes to play...thanks for making me look harder.
Always happy to talk college gambling.
There it is! Love me some Connelly data for the matchup review. I had Wyoming -3 as my largest play last week and now I'm against them here. It happens.
Samford with a much more important conference game on deck. And Samford seriously outclassed on both lines. They are an overvalued FCS team IMO. They will not be able to run the ball at all and will be one-dimensional on offense.
Added:
Akron / Buffalo Under 59 (0.25u) .....shoulda pulled the string on this one yesterday at a slightly better number.
Samford with a much more important conference game on deck. And Samford seriously outclassed on both lines. They are an overvalued FCS team IMO. They will not be able to run the ball at all and will be one-dimensional on offense.
Added:
Akron / Buffalo Under 59 (0.25u) .....shoulda pulled the string on this one yesterday at a slightly better number.
TD, Still looking @numbers for Thurs. night. Liking your Toledo/ Ohio u58.5 a lot. That's probably a keeper. In fact I would lean under on all the games except maybe Buff./Akron. Sorry. Just hard to figure those two. Especially with Buffalo at home. You know the home dog on national TV stat. It's a crap shoot with two not really good teams. Hope you win it, tho.
I eschew parlays and teasers for the most part but often make the exception on weekday games and do a really cheap teaser for fun. Maybe tease up the totals this week for 71/2 pts., grab the under and take V. Tech +3.
Cheap is the key word on those bets.
If forced to make a full unit bet would play App. St.
TD, Still looking @numbers for Thurs. night. Liking your Toledo/ Ohio u58.5 a lot. That's probably a keeper. In fact I would lean under on all the games except maybe Buff./Akron. Sorry. Just hard to figure those two. Especially with Buffalo at home. You know the home dog on national TV stat. It's a crap shoot with two not really good teams. Hope you win it, tho.
I eschew parlays and teasers for the most part but often make the exception on weekday games and do a really cheap teaser for fun. Maybe tease up the totals this week for 71/2 pts., grab the under and take V. Tech +3.
Cheap is the key word on those bets.
If forced to make a full unit bet would play App. St.
Akron game is driving me to drink... they should move the ball at will?!? Talk me out of Akron TT over.
"My advice to you..... is to start drinking heavily" - a lot of Animal House references this week. Unlike MaineRoad, I'm too lazy/tired on a "school night" to look up a YouTube video.
I agree that Akron TT over (esp if 37.5) seems intuitive... alright, will try (some) to play Devil's Advocate.....
Akron on 2nd road game in 6 days. And could be looking ahead to the meat of MAC conference play.
Both teams adjusted pace is slow.
Buffalo S&P+ #s bad everywhere on D. Raw #s for IsoPPP (not strength of schedule adjusted), Buffalo is "only" ranked 66th. That and the low Secondary Havoc #s show a heavy dose (or attempt at) a bend don't break D to limit explosive plays. Akron passing game is quite explosive as you know from the #s especially with QB Woodson healthy again. And Buffalo starting CB Boise Ross (3rd team all MAC LY) is listed as Questionable with a knee injury.
Buffalo seems to play better at home..... at least on offense, relatively speaking.
Matchup wise - hard to argue. Situational stuff maybe a slight concern with the travel, short rest, etc.
Akron game is driving me to drink... they should move the ball at will?!? Talk me out of Akron TT over.
"My advice to you..... is to start drinking heavily" - a lot of Animal House references this week. Unlike MaineRoad, I'm too lazy/tired on a "school night" to look up a YouTube video.
I agree that Akron TT over (esp if 37.5) seems intuitive... alright, will try (some) to play Devil's Advocate.....
Akron on 2nd road game in 6 days. And could be looking ahead to the meat of MAC conference play.
Both teams adjusted pace is slow.
Buffalo S&P+ #s bad everywhere on D. Raw #s for IsoPPP (not strength of schedule adjusted), Buffalo is "only" ranked 66th. That and the low Secondary Havoc #s show a heavy dose (or attempt at) a bend don't break D to limit explosive plays. Akron passing game is quite explosive as you know from the #s especially with QB Woodson healthy again. And Buffalo starting CB Boise Ross (3rd team all MAC LY) is listed as Questionable with a knee injury.
Buffalo seems to play better at home..... at least on offense, relatively speaking.
Matchup wise - hard to argue. Situational stuff maybe a slight concern with the travel, short rest, etc.
TD, Still looking @numbers for Thurs. night. Liking your Toledo/ Ohio u58.5 a lot. That's probably a keeper. In fact I would lean under on all the games except maybe Buff./Akron. Sorry. Just hard to figure those two. Especially with Buffalo at home. You know the home dog on national TV stat. It's a crap shoot with two not really good teams. Hope you win it, tho.
I eschew parlays and teasers for the most part but often make the exception on weekday games and do a really cheap teaser for fun. Maybe tease up the totals this week for 71/2 pts., grab the under and take V. Tech +3.
Cheap is the key word on those bets.
If forced to make a full unit bet would play App. St.
Stay Hard, Doc
Lean App State as well, but can't seem to pull the trigger on this one. Georgia Southern looks a lot different with a defensive minded HC at the helm. If they have any 'fire in their belly' at all after looking pretty average against some bad opponents, you'd think they come out and play hard at home against this league (and longtime) rival (both came over from the Southern conf). I guess that's what's keeping me away at the moment. And App State smacked them pretty good LY. Should also be motivated by that???? I can't decide.
TD, Still looking @numbers for Thurs. night. Liking your Toledo/ Ohio u58.5 a lot. That's probably a keeper. In fact I would lean under on all the games except maybe Buff./Akron. Sorry. Just hard to figure those two. Especially with Buffalo at home. You know the home dog on national TV stat. It's a crap shoot with two not really good teams. Hope you win it, tho.
I eschew parlays and teasers for the most part but often make the exception on weekday games and do a really cheap teaser for fun. Maybe tease up the totals this week for 71/2 pts., grab the under and take V. Tech +3.
Cheap is the key word on those bets.
If forced to make a full unit bet would play App. St.
Stay Hard, Doc
Lean App State as well, but can't seem to pull the trigger on this one. Georgia Southern looks a lot different with a defensive minded HC at the helm. If they have any 'fire in their belly' at all after looking pretty average against some bad opponents, you'd think they come out and play hard at home against this league (and longtime) rival (both came over from the Southern conf). I guess that's what's keeping me away at the moment. And App State smacked them pretty good LY. Should also be motivated by that???? I can't decide.
TD, There is this other thing. The MAC and SunBelt have been playing these national weekday games for a while now. I guess it's still a big deal but all these teams have had a taste of it. All the teams in both leagues have been there. Nothing new and they know the schedule.
Your the one who has lived on the inside. You and I both know the stands will be half empty but millions are watching. You've been around plenty of mid majors. How do you think this affects things?
TD, There is this other thing. The MAC and SunBelt have been playing these national weekday games for a while now. I guess it's still a big deal but all these teams have had a taste of it. All the teams in both leagues have been there. Nothing new and they know the schedule.
Your the one who has lived on the inside. You and I both know the stands will be half empty but millions are watching. You've been around plenty of mid majors. How do you think this affects things?
TD, There is this other thing. The MAC and SunBelt have been playing these national weekday games for a while now. I guess it's still a big deal but all these teams have had a taste of it. All the teams in both leagues have been there. Nothing new and they know the schedule.
Your the one who has lived on the inside. You and I both know the stands will be half empty but millions are watching. You've been around plenty of mid majors. How do you think this affects things?
Doc
Pecador,
I had a long winded response all typed up and basically finished, then the website somehow refreshed the page on the iPad and the response was gone. Naturally, I dropped a few cuss words and got in trouble with the Mrs. ..... Apparently the 4 year old that heard me (again) just now had copied a couple choice words a few days ago and was initially proud of himself that he was like Daddy, but then Mommy informed him that he (and Daddy) are not supposed to talk like that. ......
Anyway, I'll start fresh tomorrow and try to type up basically the same response. Have to get my a$s up earlier than usual tomorrow, calling it a night.
TD, There is this other thing. The MAC and SunBelt have been playing these national weekday games for a while now. I guess it's still a big deal but all these teams have had a taste of it. All the teams in both leagues have been there. Nothing new and they know the schedule.
Your the one who has lived on the inside. You and I both know the stands will be half empty but millions are watching. You've been around plenty of mid majors. How do you think this affects things?
Doc
Pecador,
I had a long winded response all typed up and basically finished, then the website somehow refreshed the page on the iPad and the response was gone. Naturally, I dropped a few cuss words and got in trouble with the Mrs. ..... Apparently the 4 year old that heard me (again) just now had copied a couple choice words a few days ago and was initially proud of himself that he was like Daddy, but then Mommy informed him that he (and Daddy) are not supposed to talk like that. ......
Anyway, I'll start fresh tomorrow and try to type up basically the same response. Have to get my a$s up earlier than usual tomorrow, calling it a night.
Congrats on the week 8! Appreciate you taking the time
madisonmike, you're welcome. ..... I enjoy talking football when I get the time. Saw you had a strong week 8. Keep it up for week 9! Best of luck to you.
Congrats on the week 8! Appreciate you taking the time
madisonmike, you're welcome. ..... I enjoy talking football when I get the time. Saw you had a strong week 8. Keep it up for week 9! Best of luck to you.
"My advice to you..... is to start drinking heavily" - a lot of Animal House references this week. Unlike MaineRoad, I'm too lazy/tired on a "school night" to look up a YouTube video.
I agree that Akron TT over (esp if 37.5) seems intuitive... alright, will try (some) to play Devil's Advocate.....
Akron on 2nd road game in 6 days. And could be looking ahead to the meat of MAC conference play.
Both teams adjusted pace is slow.
Buffalo S&P+ #s bad everywhere on D. Raw #s for IsoPPP (not strength of schedule adjusted), Buffalo is "only" ranked 66th. That and the low Secondary Havoc #s show a heavy dose (or attempt at) a bend don't break D to limit explosive plays. Akron passing game is quite explosive as you know from the #s especially with QB Woodson healthy again. And Buffalo starting CB Boise Ross (3rd team all MAC LY) is listed as Questionable with a knee injury.
Buffalo seems to play better at home..... at least on offense, relatively speaking.
Matchup wise - hard to argue. Situational stuff maybe a slight concern with the travel, short rest, etc.
Not sure if that helps any.
TD
BandosWB,
Looks like the weather front that passed through my area today could affect this game tomorrow night as well. Cold & rainy, pretty lousy weather with the wind chill.
"My advice to you..... is to start drinking heavily" - a lot of Animal House references this week. Unlike MaineRoad, I'm too lazy/tired on a "school night" to look up a YouTube video.
I agree that Akron TT over (esp if 37.5) seems intuitive... alright, will try (some) to play Devil's Advocate.....
Akron on 2nd road game in 6 days. And could be looking ahead to the meat of MAC conference play.
Both teams adjusted pace is slow.
Buffalo S&P+ #s bad everywhere on D. Raw #s for IsoPPP (not strength of schedule adjusted), Buffalo is "only" ranked 66th. That and the low Secondary Havoc #s show a heavy dose (or attempt at) a bend don't break D to limit explosive plays. Akron passing game is quite explosive as you know from the #s especially with QB Woodson healthy again. And Buffalo starting CB Boise Ross (3rd team all MAC LY) is listed as Questionable with a knee injury.
Buffalo seems to play better at home..... at least on offense, relatively speaking.
Matchup wise - hard to argue. Situational stuff maybe a slight concern with the travel, short rest, etc.
Not sure if that helps any.
TD
BandosWB,
Looks like the weather front that passed through my area today could affect this game tomorrow night as well. Cold & rainy, pretty lousy weather with the wind chill.
Thanks TD. With weather concerns, I am just laying off.
That UM/MSU line is . I already played UM 1h -14. Books scared me away from 1h UM last week by laying a 17.5 out there, and they covered it with ease. Connelley has MSU WORSE and EMU. Don't know about that, but that just shows you how far the actual product on the field has fallen. Is MSU any better, right now, than Illinois. Unfortunately for MSU fans, this reminds me of UW/Oregon earlier this year (tho that line was a silly -9). Oregon had no chance to move the ball enough, or get any stops. And with supreme motivation, UW dropped 70. FEI has MSU D at 116th?! It's hard to imagine there being this much discrepancy, but really looks like there is.
Thanks TD. With weather concerns, I am just laying off.
That UM/MSU line is . I already played UM 1h -14. Books scared me away from 1h UM last week by laying a 17.5 out there, and they covered it with ease. Connelley has MSU WORSE and EMU. Don't know about that, but that just shows you how far the actual product on the field has fallen. Is MSU any better, right now, than Illinois. Unfortunately for MSU fans, this reminds me of UW/Oregon earlier this year (tho that line was a silly -9). Oregon had no chance to move the ball enough, or get any stops. And with supreme motivation, UW dropped 70. FEI has MSU D at 116th?! It's hard to imagine there being this much discrepancy, but really looks like there is.
Added: Washington -9.5 -115 (0.5u). Betonline slightly better price than elsewhere to get under 10. Could be wrong on line movement, but fear it goes back up some as Gameday approaches.
Added: Washington -9.5 -115 (0.5u). Betonline slightly better price than elsewhere to get under 10. Could be wrong on line movement, but fear it goes back up some as Gameday approaches.
TD, Love the way you talk about the kids. How does your wife put up with you? You must have a good job and sense of humor because if your not married to this handicapping junk it's certainly your mistress. At least it keeps you at home.
TD, Love the way you talk about the kids. How does your wife put up with you? You must have a good job and sense of humor because if your not married to this handicapping junk it's certainly your mistress. At least it keeps you at home.
TD, Love the way you talk about the kids. How does your wife put up with you? You must have a good job and sense of humor because if your not married to this handicapping junk it's certainly your mistress. At least it keeps you at home.
She's not sure sometimes .... we try to keep life balanced, but she's pretty understanding of my ties to and love for college football.
Trick or treating tonight at preschool with the little ones then stopped by my brother-in-laws house afterwards.......started watching these MAC games early 2nd qtr. Lucky cover on the Toledo Under with WR stepping out on that 2 pt conversion. I missed the late 2 play 61 yard drive that Akron gave up mid to late 4th qtr after stopped on downs when down 14. Appears the Akron D gave up and quit trying after the game was out of reach. MAC Totals pretty tight. I thought about an App State 2nd half play based on the 10-10 score yet the box score showed who was the more dominant team. Coulda, shoulda..... I passed because I didn't have time to watch much 1st half. Hope you took App State full game like you mentioned.
USC in control so far, hope that continues.
........
And my mistress seems to put out - most weekends.
Never got around to reposting on the MAC; should have more time Saturday to post. ..... Me and my frozen peas will have some down time.
TD, Love the way you talk about the kids. How does your wife put up with you? You must have a good job and sense of humor because if your not married to this handicapping junk it's certainly your mistress. At least it keeps you at home.
She's not sure sometimes .... we try to keep life balanced, but she's pretty understanding of my ties to and love for college football.
Trick or treating tonight at preschool with the little ones then stopped by my brother-in-laws house afterwards.......started watching these MAC games early 2nd qtr. Lucky cover on the Toledo Under with WR stepping out on that 2 pt conversion. I missed the late 2 play 61 yard drive that Akron gave up mid to late 4th qtr after stopped on downs when down 14. Appears the Akron D gave up and quit trying after the game was out of reach. MAC Totals pretty tight. I thought about an App State 2nd half play based on the 10-10 score yet the box score showed who was the more dominant team. Coulda, shoulda..... I passed because I didn't have time to watch much 1st half. Hope you took App State full game like you mentioned.
USC in control so far, hope that continues.
........
And my mistress seems to put out - most weekends.
Never got around to reposting on the MAC; should have more time Saturday to post. ..... Me and my frozen peas will have some down time.
TD, No big deal but I played APP. ST. from 1st base to home plate. Covered all the bases with that bitsh. Won the triple crown. Small plays. TT's and others. App.St. not that great but Geo. So. just needed someone to tilt them over. They have nothing. I wasn't positive before but they looked like a average team. It was a good bunch of small baby wins. Thanks.
Curious about your Ark. St. play. Monroe sucks but ... don't think I can go there with you. That piece of crap was -20 last I saw. Just can't do it .
TD, No big deal but I played APP. ST. from 1st base to home plate. Covered all the bases with that bitsh. Won the triple crown. Small plays. TT's and others. App.St. not that great but Geo. So. just needed someone to tilt them over. They have nothing. I wasn't positive before but they looked like a average team. It was a good bunch of small baby wins. Thanks.
Curious about your Ark. St. play. Monroe sucks but ... don't think I can go there with you. That piece of crap was -20 last I saw. Just can't do it .
Some at the -5.5 I'm seeing now, but I'd keep it a small action amount for $. There's a reason I was cautious at 0.5u even at -3.
Utah State can be tough at home. One would think Utah State is motivated here. 2015 sequence was odd for Utah State; blowout win over Boise State at home and the following week all high & mighty at SDSU they get rolled. ....SDSU has not played here in several years the way the conference schedule rotates.
I am pretty partial to SDSU in Mountain West play, so I have to be careful to look at both sides.... I think they sandbag some in non-conf play so there can be value on them early in conference games. Personally no way I can talk myself into taking the +5.5. SDSU or no play for me. But I do think Utah State is tough at home. The real matchup question we all have to decide our stance on is: has the USU rushing offense really improved the last two weeks? ..... or is that apparent improvement just a product of who they've played. Maybe a little bit of both??? Vs. better run defenses early in the year, they did not have success on the ground. Key to the game there IMO.
Some at the -5.5 I'm seeing now, but I'd keep it a small action amount for $. There's a reason I was cautious at 0.5u even at -3.
Utah State can be tough at home. One would think Utah State is motivated here. 2015 sequence was odd for Utah State; blowout win over Boise State at home and the following week all high & mighty at SDSU they get rolled. ....SDSU has not played here in several years the way the conference schedule rotates.
I am pretty partial to SDSU in Mountain West play, so I have to be careful to look at both sides.... I think they sandbag some in non-conf play so there can be value on them early in conference games. Personally no way I can talk myself into taking the +5.5. SDSU or no play for me. But I do think Utah State is tough at home. The real matchup question we all have to decide our stance on is: has the USU rushing offense really improved the last two weeks? ..... or is that apparent improvement just a product of who they've played. Maybe a little bit of both??? Vs. better run defenses early in the year, they did not have success on the ground. Key to the game there IMO.
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