Kentucky/NMSU Under 65 L....bad read on my part as Kentucky almost had this by themselves USC +9 L Northwestern -3 W Rutgers/New Mexico Over 58.5 W Western Michigan/Illinois Over 53.5 L....news flash - the Illini are terrible once again
On to Week 4....
So. Mississippi -10 at UTEP: Gonna lock this one in now as it fell to -9 but is on the way back up....I believe we're getting a nice sale price on the Golden Eagles here coming off a stunning loss to a "better than you think" Troy squad....So. Miss is 26th in the FBS vs. the run (UTEP's strong suit) & 18th vs. the pass so they should be able to shut down the Miners who only average about 20 points per game....meanwhile UTEP's D gives up about 43 points & 454 yards a game so I feel So. Miss QB Nick Mullens will put together a fair amount of scoring drives....Overall UTEP is a bottom 10 team in the FBS & So. Miss despite last weekend's upset loss should bounce back & take this one by around 3 TD's
Kentucky/NMSU Under 65 L....bad read on my part as Kentucky almost had this by themselves USC +9 L Northwestern -3 W Rutgers/New Mexico Over 58.5 W Western Michigan/Illinois Over 53.5 L....news flash - the Illini are terrible once again
On to Week 4....
So. Mississippi -10 at UTEP: Gonna lock this one in now as it fell to -9 but is on the way back up....I believe we're getting a nice sale price on the Golden Eagles here coming off a stunning loss to a "better than you think" Troy squad....So. Miss is 26th in the FBS vs. the run (UTEP's strong suit) & 18th vs. the pass so they should be able to shut down the Miners who only average about 20 points per game....meanwhile UTEP's D gives up about 43 points & 454 yards a game so I feel So. Miss QB Nick Mullens will put together a fair amount of scoring drives....Overall UTEP is a bottom 10 team in the FBS & So. Miss despite last weekend's upset loss should bounce back & take this one by around 3 TD's
SMU +21 vs. TCU: I would guess this one may head back towards the +23 opening line as we get closer to game time but I've seen a few +20.5 lines too so I'll take my chances here....simply put TCU has not shown me enough to merit being 3 TD faves on the road vs. anyone right now....meanwhile SMU hasn't been "awesome" by any means but has two nice wins with a loss at Baylor in between (a game that was tied 6-6 at the half!)....translation SMU gets a chance to showcase their wares in a Friday nite matchup on ESPN while it may be a "look past" game for TCU with Oklahoma on deck....seems like a 38-28 type game to me
SMU +21 vs. TCU: I would guess this one may head back towards the +23 opening line as we get closer to game time but I've seen a few +20.5 lines too so I'll take my chances here....simply put TCU has not shown me enough to merit being 3 TD faves on the road vs. anyone right now....meanwhile SMU hasn't been "awesome" by any means but has two nice wins with a loss at Baylor in between (a game that was tied 6-6 at the half!)....translation SMU gets a chance to showcase their wares in a Friday nite matchup on ESPN while it may be a "look past" game for TCU with Oklahoma on deck....seems like a 38-28 type game to me
Louisiana Tech/Middle Tennessee OVER 68: On paper I don't see how these teams can't get to 80....on offense each squad averages around 40 points & 530 yards per game coupled with the fact they each have average to above average tempo (MTSU runs 82 plays per game while La Tech runs 70) and are among FBS leaders in yards per play (La Tech is 8th while MTSU is 28th)....the defensive side of this play is key however as the Bulldogs rank among the bottom 35 in the FBS in points & yards allowed while MTSU's numbers are both average but their opening game (a 55-0 crushing of lowly FCS Alabama A&M) must be factored in....and remember offensively-challenged Vandy put up 47 on that D in Week 2 so La Tech has a good chance at 30+....I see this one 42-35 or higher
Louisiana Tech/Middle Tennessee OVER 68: On paper I don't see how these teams can't get to 80....on offense each squad averages around 40 points & 530 yards per game coupled with the fact they each have average to above average tempo (MTSU runs 82 plays per game while La Tech runs 70) and are among FBS leaders in yards per play (La Tech is 8th while MTSU is 28th)....the defensive side of this play is key however as the Bulldogs rank among the bottom 35 in the FBS in points & yards allowed while MTSU's numbers are both average but their opening game (a 55-0 crushing of lowly FCS Alabama A&M) must be factored in....and remember offensively-challenged Vandy put up 47 on that D in Week 2 so La Tech has a good chance at 30+....I see this one 42-35 or higher
Memphis/Bowling Green UNDER 68.5: Both of these schools have been known for their offense but so far this year they've had mixed results....BGSU ranks 120th in yards per play & only averages 19 points a game (including only putting up 27 on FCS school No. Dakota....they also have 10 turnovers in 3 games this year including 6 INT's....Memphis's offense is pretty good & should have an above average day vs. the Falcons D but I believe the Tigers D will get us this under....they rank 9th in points allowed & 28th in total yards allowed....going beyond these numbers to see through the Matrix I expect the Tigers to have a good day offensively (they have Ole Miss on deck so they may be sleepwalking a little) while BGSU should put up another less than mediocre display plagued by turnovers....I see something like Memphis 38-20
Memphis/Bowling Green UNDER 68.5: Both of these schools have been known for their offense but so far this year they've had mixed results....BGSU ranks 120th in yards per play & only averages 19 points a game (including only putting up 27 on FCS school No. Dakota....they also have 10 turnovers in 3 games this year including 6 INT's....Memphis's offense is pretty good & should have an above average day vs. the Falcons D but I believe the Tigers D will get us this under....they rank 9th in points allowed & 28th in total yards allowed....going beyond these numbers to see through the Matrix I expect the Tigers to have a good day offensively (they have Ole Miss on deck so they may be sleepwalking a little) while BGSU should put up another less than mediocre display plagued by turnovers....I see something like Memphis 38-20
Marshall +???? vs. Louisville: no fancy numbers or writeups for this one....total gut call says no way this line should be anywhere south of -35....a defense that just gave up 65 at home to AKRON now goes against Lamar Jackson and his 3rd ranked Louisville squad????....Louisville who is averaging 65 points & 679 yards a game????....Louisville who rolled up 63 on #2 Florida St.????....to hell with -35 it should be more like -45!!!!....as it sits now (-27) it just seems too fishy so I'll play the Herd....this is a LOOK PAST game for the Ville as Clemson looms next week....folks around say RB Brandon Radcliff may see a bigger role too as the Cards work on the basics this week and Action Jackson may not be so "Action-y" or at least not for more than the first half....also note 3 fluky TD's (fumble, INT, & blocked punt returns) made the Akron score look a lot worse for Marshall....all in all this is a total feel play & I'll probably put it in anywhere north of +28
Marshall +???? vs. Louisville: no fancy numbers or writeups for this one....total gut call says no way this line should be anywhere south of -35....a defense that just gave up 65 at home to AKRON now goes against Lamar Jackson and his 3rd ranked Louisville squad????....Louisville who is averaging 65 points & 679 yards a game????....Louisville who rolled up 63 on #2 Florida St.????....to hell with -35 it should be more like -45!!!!....as it sits now (-27) it just seems too fishy so I'll play the Herd....this is a LOOK PAST game for the Ville as Clemson looms next week....folks around say RB Brandon Radcliff may see a bigger role too as the Cards work on the basics this week and Action Jackson may not be so "Action-y" or at least not for more than the first half....also note 3 fluky TD's (fumble, INT, & blocked punt returns) made the Akron score look a lot worse for Marshall....all in all this is a total feel play & I'll probably put it in anywhere north of +28
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