FIRST PLAY
A&M @ LSU – 5
Back to fading A&M this week after they had a surprising
turnaround against Vandy 25-zip on the road. Because Vandy held so many other
teams down to single digits it may seem like A&M turned a corner. But it’s
the same old story w this A&M team, they need to get their run going to
keep pressure off Allen giving him the chance to make plays and they found
success last week. A&M RB Carson went for 125 5.7ypc against Vandy giving QB
Kyle Allen all the room they needed to move the ball in the air albeit only
connecting on 50%. Look back in the stats for yourselves because this is a
recurring theme and there appears to be a fairly clear cutoff in the caliber of
D when A&M gets stopped in its tracks namely against ark, bama, and miss
only covering against ark and in OT after arkey owned them most of the game. We
don’t think A&M gets movement this week and point LSU pre-bama/miss/ark
holding teams on avg to under 100rypg and <4ypc which is below the threshold
A&M needs.
A&M’s D strength is speed rush and hurrying the pass game and
that showed last week w Vandy’s 20 pass yds on 16 att’s (eek). But A&M
doesn’t stop the run in general giving up 202ypg and 4.8/c, and the most
successful they’ve been were @vandy (125yds), ASU (96yds), and we’ll call
western Carolina at 137 rush yds a success for them. Aub meanwhile hung 311 on
them and they don’t have a Leonard Fournette.
LSU actually had an 80 yard edge @ Miss (edge in rush and
pass) and controlled the ball 12 more mins….This is the same Miss D that embarrassed A&M’s
offense in every way. But 3TOs of which 2 were int’s doesn’t equate to points.
LSU will have no trouble running against A&M all game if they want and the
pass game has gotten steadily better so expect a really strong offensive edge
here when LSU’s pass gets some room to
operate. – Basically Bama 2.0.
This will be A&M’s 3rd true road game which is just more to like seeing how they did against a stronger Miss team. I put more value on this factor after Allen was..i don't think there's a word for it...at Miss this year. Also with Miles on the hot seat they won’t be throwing in the towel because a loss here buries him fo-sho but in all likelihood he’ll need a strong performance to keep hope alive so expect Miles to plug his back door as air tight as possible. I also think LW’s results really helped push the line below 7 which is where we want it but as we note both look more like misnomers when capping this match up.
Extra nuggets:
+No significant injuries,
+LSU +5 A&M -2 TO margin
+A&M way better at TFL’s and Sacks but note when LSU is primarily running
this edge gets marginalized.
+ LSU kicker 91% 3/3 40+ lone miss under 20.
+ A&M kicker 75% missed one or more at numerous distances.
Line is reported at -5 now. Really like under 6 but wouldn't play over a TD.
FIRST PLAY
A&M @ LSU – 5
Back to fading A&M this week after they had a surprising
turnaround against Vandy 25-zip on the road. Because Vandy held so many other
teams down to single digits it may seem like A&M turned a corner. But it’s
the same old story w this A&M team, they need to get their run going to
keep pressure off Allen giving him the chance to make plays and they found
success last week. A&M RB Carson went for 125 5.7ypc against Vandy giving QB
Kyle Allen all the room they needed to move the ball in the air albeit only
connecting on 50%. Look back in the stats for yourselves because this is a
recurring theme and there appears to be a fairly clear cutoff in the caliber of
D when A&M gets stopped in its tracks namely against ark, bama, and miss
only covering against ark and in OT after arkey owned them most of the game. We
don’t think A&M gets movement this week and point LSU pre-bama/miss/ark
holding teams on avg to under 100rypg and <4ypc which is below the threshold
A&M needs.
A&M’s D strength is speed rush and hurrying the pass game and
that showed last week w Vandy’s 20 pass yds on 16 att’s (eek). But A&M
doesn’t stop the run in general giving up 202ypg and 4.8/c, and the most
successful they’ve been were @vandy (125yds), ASU (96yds), and we’ll call
western Carolina at 137 rush yds a success for them. Aub meanwhile hung 311 on
them and they don’t have a Leonard Fournette.
LSU actually had an 80 yard edge @ Miss (edge in rush and
pass) and controlled the ball 12 more mins….This is the same Miss D that embarrassed A&M’s
offense in every way. But 3TOs of which 2 were int’s doesn’t equate to points.
LSU will have no trouble running against A&M all game if they want and the
pass game has gotten steadily better so expect a really strong offensive edge
here when LSU’s pass gets some room to
operate. – Basically Bama 2.0.
This will be A&M’s 3rd true road game which is just more to like seeing how they did against a stronger Miss team. I put more value on this factor after Allen was..i don't think there's a word for it...at Miss this year. Also with Miles on the hot seat they won’t be throwing in the towel because a loss here buries him fo-sho but in all likelihood he’ll need a strong performance to keep hope alive so expect Miles to plug his back door as air tight as possible. I also think LW’s results really helped push the line below 7 which is where we want it but as we note both look more like misnomers when capping this match up.
Extra nuggets:
+No significant injuries,
+LSU +5 A&M -2 TO margin
+A&M way better at TFL’s and Sacks but note when LSU is primarily running
this edge gets marginalized.
+ LSU kicker 91% 3/3 40+ lone miss under 20.
+ A&M kicker 75% missed one or more at numerous distances.
Line is reported at -5 now. Really like under 6 but wouldn't play over a TD.
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