Run defense was the key to ASU's victory over UCLA holding
them to 62 yards last week holding JR RB Perkins who has been racking up the
yards (200+ against BYU). Rush game has surprisingly been CO’s stronger point
even with Nelson Spruce (NFL caliber WR) and 2nd year starter at QB
Sefo. So a little different flavor for the buffs since last year where the pass
was driving the success, or at least the covers. Oregon was able to shut down
that CU’s run offense last week holding to 76 yds and making them one
dimensional. It should be noted Oregon’s rush D is not special (273 Utah, 197
Mich st., weaker comp >100). Co St also held the CU rush to 125 and almost
pulled the cover (CU was +2 TO’s that game) and instead that ended in a push.
ASU can’t afford to look ahead in the conference so not
scared of a letdown with a trip to Utah waiting the next week. The rush game
got a much needed boost getting Ballage back and picked up where the O needs
another option besides Richards. I expect a big day out of the tandem. QB Berco
finally got a little success keeping on a read option, I’d expect there to be
more of this wrinkle in the O next week. In the end I see a significant edge in
rushing which is key to this game.
Pass wise I don’t see significant meaningful edges either
way. CU gets pass yards by default of having decent receivers and experienced
QB. ASU got blown up against USC for 379 but notably held TA&M and UCLA
under 300. I wouldn’t expect an overly strong pass game to substitute CU’s lack
of run options.
Taking into account the talent on both teams with the stats
and home field for ASU I like ASU big in this one.
Other notes:
It should also be noted CU's best RB option Adkins has been
sidelined the last two weeks and his return would require some consideration but don't see the result changing significantly if he returns, particularly with how ASU disposed of Perkins last week.
Run defense was the key to ASU's victory over UCLA holding
them to 62 yards last week holding JR RB Perkins who has been racking up the
yards (200+ against BYU). Rush game has surprisingly been CO’s stronger point
even with Nelson Spruce (NFL caliber WR) and 2nd year starter at QB
Sefo. So a little different flavor for the buffs since last year where the pass
was driving the success, or at least the covers. Oregon was able to shut down
that CU’s run offense last week holding to 76 yds and making them one
dimensional. It should be noted Oregon’s rush D is not special (273 Utah, 197
Mich st., weaker comp >100). Co St also held the CU rush to 125 and almost
pulled the cover (CU was +2 TO’s that game) and instead that ended in a push.
ASU can’t afford to look ahead in the conference so not
scared of a letdown with a trip to Utah waiting the next week. The rush game
got a much needed boost getting Ballage back and picked up where the O needs
another option besides Richards. I expect a big day out of the tandem. QB Berco
finally got a little success keeping on a read option, I’d expect there to be
more of this wrinkle in the O next week. In the end I see a significant edge in
rushing which is key to this game.
Pass wise I don’t see significant meaningful edges either
way. CU gets pass yards by default of having decent receivers and experienced
QB. ASU got blown up against USC for 379 but notably held TA&M and UCLA
under 300. I wouldn’t expect an overly strong pass game to substitute CU’s lack
of run options.
Taking into account the talent on both teams with the stats
and home field for ASU I like ASU big in this one.
Other notes:
It should also be noted CU's best RB option Adkins has been
sidelined the last two weeks and his return would require some consideration but don't see the result changing significantly if he returns, particularly with how ASU disposed of Perkins last week.
Closely watching if FSU RB Cook returns or is not 100% for this game. Analysis and pick to come but to keep it short for now, FSU's offense is inept without Cook. Miami O is not looking special but has had some success moving the ball. FSU D isin't shutting teams down like in the past and this will be their toughest competition of the season. Against Wake they gave up 215 pass and 142 rush in a too close for comfort game which featured a 90+ yd rush from Cook in Q1 and ~30 rush yds the rest of the game. Even at BC they nabbed ~100 yds rushing with Cook and others.
Just don't see the wow factor yet with this FSU team which makes a Cook injury big for Miami. I suspect a possible upset if Cook is out and will consider where the spread goes with him in. I suspect an upward trend with public expecting the FSU of old and recent Miami loss.
I'll post the the play if there is one later this week but watching this one close.
Closely watching if FSU RB Cook returns or is not 100% for this game. Analysis and pick to come but to keep it short for now, FSU's offense is inept without Cook. Miami O is not looking special but has had some success moving the ball. FSU D isin't shutting teams down like in the past and this will be their toughest competition of the season. Against Wake they gave up 215 pass and 142 rush in a too close for comfort game which featured a 90+ yd rush from Cook in Q1 and ~30 rush yds the rest of the game. Even at BC they nabbed ~100 yds rushing with Cook and others.
Just don't see the wow factor yet with this FSU team which makes a Cook injury big for Miami. I suspect a possible upset if Cook is out and will consider where the spread goes with him in. I suspect an upward trend with public expecting the FSU of old and recent Miami loss.
I'll post the the play if there is one later this week but watching this one close.
So Miss +5 @ Marshall - Line from covers, not up at my book prolly due to Marsh RB questionable. - Don't matter, just read bet and win money:
Taking a page out of last week with So. Miss. I'm keying in on Marshall's pass D which looks like the strength of their games thus far vs the S. Miss Pass O which is a real strength. Marsh has not had much strong competition (Purdue home) and granted they covered 10 (+1 TO's that game), it was on a pick 6 last minute as PU was driving. Pass rush has looked ok ok but again, nobody they've played really sticks out as competition in the pass department and Marsh has not impressed in any facet especially when gutting out wins against PU and Kent.
So. Miss keeps right on rollin, great pass game that opens up their run ability. I expect their O to have a pretty big edge in this one.So Miss has been tested this year with positive results albeit losses to Miss St, with Dak the dynamic QB and SEC caliber talent and played well against Nebraska, another dynamic QB. Marshall has no such thing in FR Litton who has -10 yds rushing this season. I expect a static QB to be a much easier task to shut down than Dak and Armstrong who also added 72 and 63 yds rushing against S.Miss respectively.
So Miss rushing really struggles against their stronger competition but over 200 for the weaker. Stats don't show that Marshall is having a great year in that department and I expect So. Miss pass attack to have success and really open the run game as they've shown they can i some games this year.
Marshall has owned the series the last few years stomping So. Miss but tables have turned and So Miss looks like the under the radar covering machine Marshall was last year. I expect alot of residual public recollection to the days of marshall covering some 10 in a row last year (or something absurd) which is propping up this line. I think So Miss plays tough but this one looks like a strong cover or outright win.Covering MSU and Neb on the road
Other notes:
Turnovers:
Miss has taken care of the ball turning it over 5 times and is +1 overall. Marshall has turned 14 times for -2 overall. So yes Marsh must have benefited from 12 TO's, but I put way more stock in a team that takes care of the ball than one that seems to lay it down alot...ALOT...ALMOST 3 TIMES A GAME!!!
Injuries
Marshall top RB Johnson questionable. - If the injury sticks all concerns go away in this one. Don't expect the line to shift more than 5. If he's out i'm buying a farm just to bet it.
Recruiting:
As a litmus test so as not to be fooled by the eye test, i'll peep the classes for the Jr/Sr years. Stacks up nicely. Last years of Fedora were much better than what it became for So Miss. Not exactly cappin here but no red flags noted.
So Miss +5 @ Marshall - Line from covers, not up at my book prolly due to Marsh RB questionable. - Don't matter, just read bet and win money:
Taking a page out of last week with So. Miss. I'm keying in on Marshall's pass D which looks like the strength of their games thus far vs the S. Miss Pass O which is a real strength. Marsh has not had much strong competition (Purdue home) and granted they covered 10 (+1 TO's that game), it was on a pick 6 last minute as PU was driving. Pass rush has looked ok ok but again, nobody they've played really sticks out as competition in the pass department and Marsh has not impressed in any facet especially when gutting out wins against PU and Kent.
So. Miss keeps right on rollin, great pass game that opens up their run ability. I expect their O to have a pretty big edge in this one.So Miss has been tested this year with positive results albeit losses to Miss St, with Dak the dynamic QB and SEC caliber talent and played well against Nebraska, another dynamic QB. Marshall has no such thing in FR Litton who has -10 yds rushing this season. I expect a static QB to be a much easier task to shut down than Dak and Armstrong who also added 72 and 63 yds rushing against S.Miss respectively.
So Miss rushing really struggles against their stronger competition but over 200 for the weaker. Stats don't show that Marshall is having a great year in that department and I expect So. Miss pass attack to have success and really open the run game as they've shown they can i some games this year.
Marshall has owned the series the last few years stomping So. Miss but tables have turned and So Miss looks like the under the radar covering machine Marshall was last year. I expect alot of residual public recollection to the days of marshall covering some 10 in a row last year (or something absurd) which is propping up this line. I think So Miss plays tough but this one looks like a strong cover or outright win.Covering MSU and Neb on the road
Other notes:
Turnovers:
Miss has taken care of the ball turning it over 5 times and is +1 overall. Marshall has turned 14 times for -2 overall. So yes Marsh must have benefited from 12 TO's, but I put way more stock in a team that takes care of the ball than one that seems to lay it down alot...ALOT...ALMOST 3 TIMES A GAME!!!
Injuries
Marshall top RB Johnson questionable. - If the injury sticks all concerns go away in this one. Don't expect the line to shift more than 5. If he's out i'm buying a farm just to bet it.
Recruiting:
As a litmus test so as not to be fooled by the eye test, i'll peep the classes for the Jr/Sr years. Stacks up nicely. Last years of Fedora were much better than what it became for So Miss. Not exactly cappin here but no red flags noted.
Another late line by the
bookie. I understood Miami/FSU with the injuries but feel this was just a play
to wait until the line came down or something unless I missed something.
NU’s is not a great
passing team but RsFr Thorston has managed through some very tough competition.
Yes they stumbled with Ball state, what team has not stumbled this year….no
seriously, which team..haha. Ball state still put up significantly fewer rush
yards than in their other games which is key to stopping Michigan as Utah was
able to.Noted Utah won the turnover battle in that one and almost certainly led
to their cover with a pick 6 since the sprad was -5 and won by 10. I’ll add
that Ball state was +2 in TO’s, 2 fum, 1 int, I put less stock in trending
fumbles than FRQB’s tossing INTs and thorston has 3 on the year, albeit the
ratio is 4:3, he has still managed these games well and added 165yds this year
and 4 scores on the ground. UM’s QB is not a scrambler but has 73 yds and a
couple scores too.
Outside the stats, Mich
has gotten a lot of ohhh's and ahhh's last few weeks but they weren’t the
competition or D that NU will show up with and think the public wow factor is
kicking in after stuffing the streak BYU team (D geared to pass teams) and
Maryland who is giving up ~240 rush yds per game in their last 4 (first game
was Richmond.). I’ll add that UM will be raucous but Mich has proved that the
quality of the team actually matters in a game more so than homefield over the
past few year. haha.
Just looking at both
sides I don’t think there’s enough bullets in Mich's guns to pull away over 2
scores especially if NU can get a few points on the board which they should be
able to. Glad it was bagged at +7.5.
Another late line by the
bookie. I understood Miami/FSU with the injuries but feel this was just a play
to wait until the line came down or something unless I missed something.
NU’s is not a great
passing team but RsFr Thorston has managed through some very tough competition.
Yes they stumbled with Ball state, what team has not stumbled this year….no
seriously, which team..haha. Ball state still put up significantly fewer rush
yards than in their other games which is key to stopping Michigan as Utah was
able to.Noted Utah won the turnover battle in that one and almost certainly led
to their cover with a pick 6 since the sprad was -5 and won by 10. I’ll add
that Ball state was +2 in TO’s, 2 fum, 1 int, I put less stock in trending
fumbles than FRQB’s tossing INTs and thorston has 3 on the year, albeit the
ratio is 4:3, he has still managed these games well and added 165yds this year
and 4 scores on the ground. UM’s QB is not a scrambler but has 73 yds and a
couple scores too.
Outside the stats, Mich
has gotten a lot of ohhh's and ahhh's last few weeks but they weren’t the
competition or D that NU will show up with and think the public wow factor is
kicking in after stuffing the streak BYU team (D geared to pass teams) and
Maryland who is giving up ~240 rush yds per game in their last 4 (first game
was Richmond.). I’ll add that UM will be raucous but Mich has proved that the
quality of the team actually matters in a game more so than homefield over the
past few year. haha.
Just looking at both
sides I don’t think there’s enough bullets in Mich's guns to pull away over 2
scores especially if NU can get a few points on the board which they should be
able to. Glad it was bagged at +7.5.
Looking over the board the analysts are going So Miss and seeing alot of write ups on them (love it!!!). Seeing quite a few Marshall backers but not quite the analysis behind the selections and feel like im not overthinking this one. Line hovering in the +2.5-3.5 range so probably a play that works on either side now since over 4 felt like the real value play.
I'm not officially picking or tracking ML plays but like the value of So miss upset at +150 if you have it available as i think they beat out marshall in this game about half the time leaving some value. I grabbed it earlier at +180 earlier this week.
Looking over the board the analysts are going So Miss and seeing alot of write ups on them (love it!!!). Seeing quite a few Marshall backers but not quite the analysis behind the selections and feel like im not overthinking this one. Line hovering in the +2.5-3.5 range so probably a play that works on either side now since over 4 felt like the real value play.
I'm not officially picking or tracking ML plays but like the value of So miss upset at +150 if you have it available as i think they beat out marshall in this game about half the time leaving some value. I grabbed it earlier at +180 earlier this week.
Marshall - Davon Johnson, Marsh's leading RB noted in analysis above is upgraded to probable per covers and donbest injury reports. Can't find a news source confirming. I suggest being careful if you're debating so.miss +2.5 but it was contemplated in the analysis and don't think any tables have really turned here.
FSU Update - Cook practicing per news sources. per Jimbo it's "like you never knew he had a (hamstring) injury" which if you've had one you might find hard to believe. The FSU line keeps on dropping though, goes to show you just how fungible a heisman candidate is to the line when a huge rivalry/national TV game is involved. I wouldn't rule out a re injury to the hammy or something separate as he's had a few already starting in preseason. still like this line for miami +7.5 where it stands currently.
Marshall - Davon Johnson, Marsh's leading RB noted in analysis above is upgraded to probable per covers and donbest injury reports. Can't find a news source confirming. I suggest being careful if you're debating so.miss +2.5 but it was contemplated in the analysis and don't think any tables have really turned here.
FSU Update - Cook practicing per news sources. per Jimbo it's "like you never knew he had a (hamstring) injury" which if you've had one you might find hard to believe. The FSU line keeps on dropping though, goes to show you just how fungible a heisman candidate is to the line when a huge rivalry/national TV game is involved. I wouldn't rule out a re injury to the hammy or something separate as he's had a few already starting in preseason. still like this line for miami +7.5 where it stands currently.
Jesus did that Marshall team impress. So Miss D couldn't defend a spread offense, 7 in the box can't defend a pass and can't defend the run with 6 and pretty much check mate for their D. Only thing preventing 50 for marsh was inexperience but Marsh Fr qb litton looked confident all game.
On O that pass rush was just relentless, didn't see that in past marshall games.Even special teams was a mess. marshall dominated all 3 phases and i don't think anyone saw that coming or at least wrote it out. WOOF.
Jesus did that Marshall team impress. So Miss D couldn't defend a spread offense, 7 in the box can't defend a pass and can't defend the run with 6 and pretty much check mate for their D. Only thing preventing 50 for marsh was inexperience but Marsh Fr qb litton looked confident all game.
On O that pass rush was just relentless, didn't see that in past marshall games.Even special teams was a mess. marshall dominated all 3 phases and i don't think anyone saw that coming or at least wrote it out. WOOF.
NU+7.5 - No need to get too detailed, NU was beat at every turn in this one. michigan got them down early and the risks to get back in did not pay off for NU, went in reverse. NU clearly has some talent and the end score is not indicative of where the two teams are at although 7.5-10 was still too low considering the mauling michigan put on them.
NU+7.5 - No need to get too detailed, NU was beat at every turn in this one. michigan got them down early and the risks to get back in did not pay off for NU, went in reverse. NU clearly has some talent and the end score is not indicative of where the two teams are at although 7.5-10 was still too low considering the mauling michigan put on them.
called it int he analysis Cook plays this will be a much tougher day for Miami. Cook is the centerpiece of an otherwise so-so offense. Cook didn't look like the hamstring was affecting his game at all. We considered that and saw +9 as just too high.
called it int he analysis Cook plays this will be a much tougher day for Miami. Cook is the centerpiece of an otherwise so-so offense. Cook didn't look like the hamstring was affecting his game at all. We considered that and saw +9 as just too high.
ASU getting their run game on all cylinders last weel led to this game feeling alot like Oregon CU where ASU would pound the ball and pull away over the game and did so hitting 230 in the rush. We pointed out in UCLA QB berco got some success in the read option and showed it again getting 40 yds. Nobody really had a great rush game, DJ foster had 80 yds on 5 carries moving from his WR spot and a combo of Richard, Ballage and Berco account for the rest in a multifaceted rush attack. ASU rush d showed up holding CU to 49 total rush yds.
Passing berco had a good day 64% 260yds 5TD's 1INT. CU did bag 401 yds 1TD 1INT but went one dimensional. CU offense didn't look comfortable all night and about 200 of the yards came on really long plays with the rest being from a so-so pass game.
ASU getting their run game on all cylinders last weel led to this game feeling alot like Oregon CU where ASU would pound the ball and pull away over the game and did so hitting 230 in the rush. We pointed out in UCLA QB berco got some success in the read option and showed it again getting 40 yds. Nobody really had a great rush game, DJ foster had 80 yds on 5 carries moving from his WR spot and a combo of Richard, Ballage and Berco account for the rest in a multifaceted rush attack. ASU rush d showed up holding CU to 49 total rush yds.
Passing berco had a good day 64% 260yds 5TD's 1INT. CU did bag 401 yds 1TD 1INT but went one dimensional. CU offense didn't look comfortable all night and about 200 of the yards came on really long plays with the rest being from a so-so pass game.
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