posting in this thread with great reluctance........
Auburn?..........here's how it works
*and tells you what an incredible job Malzahn did
Here's what he started with in 2012...
*about the nation's
80th best team....(capable of better sure - quit on Chizik - so not quite as bad as appeared)...lost to Bama 49-0 (+34)....lost to Georgia 38-0 at home.....lost to Aggies 63-21 at home........they were TERRIBLE
*his QB a JUCO guy / former DB
*about as good as?.....
Purdue... E Caro .... ULM.....or Duke *any of you geniuses think the Boilers could win the national title last year?........how bout Duke?.....
Auburn went from this......POOF!
*to Bama and Oregon territory......and at the end of the year were better than both (probably).....I would have been one of the idiots that bet against them vs both teams......and woulda lost both times
Week 1 they were better ....but still overvalued vs Wazzu
Week 2 they beat the crap outta a solid Ark St....and uh-oh Vegas
didn't know what to do vs Miss St.....forgot where this
one opened.....but Auburn shoulda been a 2-3 pt dog
closed at -6' or so......a 7 pt improvement for Auburn
in only 2 weeks
week 5 a 2 pt home dog to Ole Miss (following loss to LSU)
won by 8.....now already about the 40th best team or so
week 12 still a 10 pt home dog to Bama......should have been
favored by 2 or so.....how was Vegas supposed to know?
would any of you Gus fluffers have taken that bet ?
why H E L L no
*still a 10+ dog to FSU....that one shoulda been 2'-3 maybe
again how would Vegas know.....?.....they can't offer FSU -2'
that woulda gotten hammered beyond belief
A total (one season) improvement of 30 points or so........which is too many to keep pace with ......for oddsmakers or anybody else
why?...because it NEVER happens.....typically a team may get hot but will suddenly remember they actually suck...and fall back to where they once were
*in season typically PR numbers aren't adjusted more than 2-3 pts each week ........and never an
average of 2+ pts per weekAND.....if
UConn.....Rutgers...or Iowa St......win the national title this year .........Vegas will be behind yet again ....that's where Auburn came from last year ....and why I think we will see
(some at least) regression to the mean ....but who TF knows....
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.