Hey guys!!...We all want to win, esp. as the football season winds down....Giving you a little background first.....Every year, my son runs an office pool of exactly 100 workers...He cuts the number off at EXACTLY THAT....This is a good way to keep percentages, track etc....I will post the first 6 of 35 bowl games here, the spreads used, and the number or percentage of people on each game....In my case, I fade the games if they're over 65 percent....If they're around 75 percent a bit higher too.. In the 80's a bit more..At 90, i go my max units of 4....So, my wagers are units, based against the pickers....Certainly it's only 100 people, but in my experience, that's enough....Sometimes it's just one guy you can fade....I make money every year on this.... With that in mind, I am offering these games to hopefully help you in your capping....It is always best to see what others think....Use this to help or not, and it is your choice....I'm not here to teach money management, discipline, capping techniques etc...I DID ALL THAT FOR YEARS.....I mostly fade now....I hope I can help you guys, if only a bit....I know there are lots of you that go to other cappers, or so callled cappers picks, sometimes hoping to fade....Here, I have done the work for you and given you the percentages....Now, I know there are a few very good cappers here, so maybe the info you get here, coupled with other info will help you make good decisions...GOOD LUCK!..FIRST PICKS FOLLOWING!!
Hey guys!!...We all want to win, esp. as the football season winds down....Giving you a little background first.....Every year, my son runs an office pool of exactly 100 workers...He cuts the number off at EXACTLY THAT....This is a good way to keep percentages, track etc....I will post the first 6 of 35 bowl games here, the spreads used, and the number or percentage of people on each game....In my case, I fade the games if they're over 65 percent....If they're around 75 percent a bit higher too.. In the 80's a bit more..At 90, i go my max units of 4....So, my wagers are units, based against the pickers....Certainly it's only 100 people, but in my experience, that's enough....Sometimes it's just one guy you can fade....I make money every year on this.... With that in mind, I am offering these games to hopefully help you in your capping....It is always best to see what others think....Use this to help or not, and it is your choice....I'm not here to teach money management, discipline, capping techniques etc...I DID ALL THAT FOR YEARS.....I mostly fade now....I hope I can help you guys, if only a bit....I know there are lots of you that go to other cappers, or so callled cappers picks, sometimes hoping to fade....Here, I have done the work for you and given you the percentages....Now, I know there are a few very good cappers here, so maybe the info you get here, coupled with other info will help you make good decisions...GOOD LUCK!..FIRST PICKS FOLLOWING!!
TO NOTE...MOST OF THESE LINES HAVE STAYED WITHIN A PT. OF THE ORIGINAL ONES EXCEPT BUFFALO MOVING FROM 3 TO A PICK.....I WILL FADE SAN DIEGO ST ACCORDINGLY!!!!....
TO NOTE...MOST OF THESE LINES HAVE STAYED WITHIN A PT. OF THE ORIGINAL ONES EXCEPT BUFFALO MOVING FROM 3 TO A PICK.....I WILL FADE SAN DIEGO ST ACCORDINGLY!!!!....
To fellow degenerates....That Buffalo line is now moved to sdst the fav at 1.5.....That's one hell of a move from Buffalo --3......4.5 pts.....I'll treat my pool accordingly!....Best of luck guys!....Hey!!!...Hell of a lot of room for a middle...Eh???
To fellow degenerates....That Buffalo line is now moved to sdst the fav at 1.5.....That's one hell of a move from Buffalo --3......4.5 pts.....I'll treat my pool accordingly!....Best of luck guys!....Hey!!!...Hell of a lot of room for a middle...Eh???
Throwing in some info here....If you go back let's say 5 years, you will amazingly discover that the FAV-DOG distribution is almost exactly at 50-50.....Now those Vegas sharpies really have it down pat with those lines....Eh???....Additionally, the over-unders are close to 50-50, but off only a bit,....I see lots of well capped games here by cappers who put in a lot of work...., the way I used to do it, and these guys put in tons of hard capping and should be lauded for it....Perhaps you can tie it in with this info, yet simple, and help your selection...As we go on, I'll throw in a few of my thoughts...I also have buddies who gamble and are stone dead losers....I use this because in many games, you are going with the infamous "public," where Vegas makes the moola...., but I go opposite....Am I wrong many times????.....Hell yes!....But aren;'t we all????...More info and more games and percentages later, including info on double digit favorites, and favorites from 7 to 9,5....Good luck!!!!
Throwing in some info here....If you go back let's say 5 years, you will amazingly discover that the FAV-DOG distribution is almost exactly at 50-50.....Now those Vegas sharpies really have it down pat with those lines....Eh???....Additionally, the over-unders are close to 50-50, but off only a bit,....I see lots of well capped games here by cappers who put in a lot of work...., the way I used to do it, and these guys put in tons of hard capping and should be lauded for it....Perhaps you can tie it in with this info, yet simple, and help your selection...As we go on, I'll throw in a few of my thoughts...I also have buddies who gamble and are stone dead losers....I use this because in many games, you are going with the infamous "public," where Vegas makes the moola...., but I go opposite....Am I wrong many times????.....Hell yes!....But aren;'t we all????...More info and more games and percentages later, including info on double digit favorites, and favorites from 7 to 9,5....Good luck!!!!
So guys, I will be playing all of the games listed in the manner in which I wrote...I'll pass on the Tulane game,because it's a lower percentage game, though I'm tempted to play it,...I stick with this all of the way through, winning or losing!!!!,,,I'll let you know when something is going to happen that is noteworthy.....Posting more games and percentages soon....Luck to all....
So guys, I will be playing all of the games listed in the manner in which I wrote...I'll pass on the Tulane game,because it's a lower percentage game, though I'm tempted to play it,...I stick with this all of the way through, winning or losing!!!!,,,I'll let you know when something is going to happen that is noteworthy.....Posting more games and percentages soon....Luck to all....
I would suspect that 95% of the bowl games will have you fading the favorite. This year I suspect that Auburn, Michigan, and Michigan St will be among the very few dogs that your group will be on.
I did a 3 year study on the Covers consensus with respect to the majority on bowl dogs. If a team is a dog of 3 or more points in the past 3 years and the majority is above the 50% mark, they are 0-6 ATS . This year (at this point) SoCal -6, FSU -8.5, Stanford -5.5 and KST -3.5 are among the early plays. Something to keep an eye on.
I would suspect that 95% of the bowl games will have you fading the favorite. This year I suspect that Auburn, Michigan, and Michigan St will be among the very few dogs that your group will be on.
I did a 3 year study on the Covers consensus with respect to the majority on bowl dogs. If a team is a dog of 3 or more points in the past 3 years and the majority is above the 50% mark, they are 0-6 ATS . This year (at this point) SoCal -6, FSU -8.5, Stanford -5.5 and KST -3.5 are among the early plays. Something to keep an eye on.
Wanted to add that the above pointspreads were given to the guys a week or so ago. Thus, you may not see the same spreads here...Add otionally, I don't think that with the guys it makes any difference!!!!...lol!!...Again, best of luck to all!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Wanted to add that the above pointspreads were given to the guys a week or so ago. Thus, you may not see the same spreads here...Add otionally, I don't think that with the guys it makes any difference!!!!...lol!!...Again, best of luck to all!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Hasn't been awesome today, but I still find this very interesting. Hopefully ULL hangs on and this goes .500 today. I hope you keep posting the percentages for the other games.
Hasn't been awesome today, but I still find this very interesting. Hopefully ULL hangs on and this goes .500 today. I hope you keep posting the percentages for the other games.
Well guys, it's worked for me in the past....saying that, there will some instances where i go opposite, and i'll let you know here before the game and WHY!!!!,,,,,OK.....My best!!!!!.....Posting more games soon....
Well guys, it's worked for me in the past....saying that, there will some instances where i go opposite, and i'll let you know here before the game and WHY!!!!,,,,,OK.....My best!!!!!.....Posting more games soon....
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