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Author: [College Football] Topic: Freak Pics!!! (Week 1)
jimmydafreak send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BookMaker |
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#1
Posted: 8/23/2013 2:51:27 AM
Time for football!!! 

I'll start with last year's regular season record.  This does not include my bowl record which, unlike the regular season, I tracked by units.  My bowl plays were not posted on Covers (I was in Covers jail for some reason), but I ended up over 50 units.  I can point those who are interested to the thread that contains all of my bowl plays from last season if interested.  Last season's record was as follows:

Regular Bets:  61-39-3
Best Bets:  31-13
Max Bets:  2-1
UDMLs:  3-6

It is difficult enough for me to keep track of my regular season record, so I don't track units.  I would go mad trying.  Rather, I track the balances in my wagering accounts.


I generally don't do write-ups on the games I play, but I will on big games from time-to-time. 
Posting picks is time consuming enough.  I tried to write-ups on every play at one time but, it became a job and it took all the fun out of the football season.

I may venture an Alabama/Virginia Tech write-up at some point, but I have already posted extensively on this game in other threads.  Although I don't do write-ups, most of you know I try to respond to every question in my thread.  So if you have a question about a game I'm playing, feel free to ask.  I'll do my best to respond.

Here is the answer key to my bets:

Regular Bet = 1 or 3 Units (usually on weeknight games).  On Saturday's, Regular Bets are usually parlay fillers.

Best Bet = 5 Units

Max Bets = 20 Units - may be less sometimes due to betting limits or the available balance in my account at the time.  If the balance is insufficient to bet 20 units, I'll dump my entire account balance on the play.

UDML = Underdog Moneylines - typically these are underdogs of 7 points or greater.  I usually don't count UDML of 3 points or less.  I don't feel that is a true UDML bet.

A typical Saturday bet for me will look like this:  bet 5 units on my "Best Bet."  Then I'll do a 1-unit parlay with my "Best Bet" and two "Regular Bets."  If my "Best Bet" hits and my parlay loses, I'm up 4 units.    If both hit, then I'm up 11 units.    If neither hits, then I'm down 6.5 units.  

Typically I do quite well on week 1 bets.  I think knowledgeable bettors have a significant advantage over the books in week 1 for several reasons which, for the sake of brevity, I won't get into here.

I have a policy in week one (at least week 1) of NEVER betting on a new coaching staff, although I no problem fading them.  I stick with stable teams/games where I feel I have a good handle on how the game will play out

Most of you know that I bet a lot of 1st half UNDERS, and that I usually do quite well with these wagers.  I usually prefer betting 1st half UNDERS so I can evade college football's OT rules.  I particularly like these bets early in the season when offenses usually struggle to establish continuity and consistency.  Because 1st half lines have yet to be released, all of the 1st half lines listed below are estimates.

Typically I am terrible betting on 2nd halfs, OVERS and teams in the pacific time zone.  Follow all of my bets at your own risk, but especially those.  My strength is the SEC, so I try to stay as close to home as much as possible.  I have actually done pretty well with the MAC as well.  I can't explain why.

Ok, I think I've typed enough.  Now on to my my week 1 plays.


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#2
Posted: 8/23/2013 2:52:45 AM
Thursday Night Games:

Mississippi @ Vanderbilt UNDER 27 (1st Half)
*** Best Bet ***

Mississippi -2.5 (-115) @ Vanderbilt

North Carolina @ South Carolina UNDER 28 (1st Half)

Tulsa @ Bowling Green OVER 48.5

Friday Night Games:

No Plays


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#3
Posted: 8/23/2013 2:54:18 AM
Saturday Early Games:

Florida International @ Maryland UNDER 25 (1st Half)

Rice @ Texas A&M OVER 71.5


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#4
Posted: 8/23/2013 3:00:29 AM
Saturday Afternoon Games:

Alabama -18
vs. Virginia Tech
  *** Max Bet ***
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#5
Posted: 8/23/2013 3:09:50 AM
Saturday Afternoon Games:

Alabama -10 (1st Half) vs. Virginia Tech  *** Best Bet ***

Temple @ Notre Dame UNDER 26.5 (1st Half)

Saturday Evening Games:

Washington @ Auburn UNDER 29.5 (1st Half)  *** Best Bet ***

Louisiana-Monroe +23 @ Oklahoma

Saturday Late Games:

LSU -4 vs. TCU *** Best Bet ***

Sunday Night Games:

Ohio +20.5 @ Louisville

Monday Night Games:

Florida State -10 @ Pittsburgh  *** Best Bet ***

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#6
Posted: 8/23/2013 3:12:29 AM
Sorry for breaking the picks up into 4 separate post, but every time I tried to post the picks, I kept getting an error message saying the post exceeded 7800 characters, even though I was only posting two or three sentences.


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#7
Posted: 8/23/2013 3:16:15 AM
Good luck freak...have a few of these also. Dont understand why so much fade interest amongst pub with Ole Miss...gladly taking against the grain Rebels.
Posted using a mobile device.
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#8
Posted: 8/23/2013 4:18:07 AM
Gee I forgot to add my future bets.  All bets are 1 unit each.

Alabama to win the BCS National Championship +270

Alabama over 11.5 wins +180

Ole Miss over 8 wins +140

Florida to win the SEC East +350


Florida to win the SEC East was the only future bet I lost in the last two seasons, and I jus barely lost it.


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#9
Posted: 8/23/2013 4:23:20 AM
Good luck 
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#10
Posted: 8/23/2013 7:46:23 AM
Gl this season freak 
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#11
Posted: 8/23/2013 8:21:44 AM
Hi Jimmy where did you get the 1st half lines.
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#12
Posted: 8/23/2013 8:35:18 AM
Nice!!!!

Best of luck this yr. 

Love the look of those picks. 



Mega
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#13
Posted: 8/23/2013 8:41:11 AM
Glad to see you back.  Good luck on all your plays.  
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#14
Posted: 8/23/2013 8:43:17 AM

Nice Work!

With you big time on Alabama -18 and FSU -10.   I generally don't play O/U, but I may in subsequent weeks. 

When you get a chance, I would appreciate your perspective on LSU -4  With regard to your statement about coaching stability,I would appreciate your thoughts on NW -5.5.   Finally, I am on Ok St -12.5.  Does Mullin and Co have the horses to stick with the Cowboys?

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#15
Posted: 8/23/2013 8:51:16 AM
You're a freak Jimmy....nice !   
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#16
Posted: 8/23/2013 8:54:09 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

Sorry for breaking the picks up into 4 separate post, but every time I tried to post the picks, I kept getting an error message saying the post exceeded 7800 characters, even though I was only posting two or three sentences.




The formatting and colors add a lot to the character count.

Good luck this week/year.  

The only bet I disagree with is your SC/NC Under.  I see a lot of points this game for some reason.
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#17
Posted: 8/23/2013 9:18:58 AM
ULM
A&m vs rice over
Ohio



Im going to follow suit and unload on alabama. BOL guy


Really respect ur opinion. 
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#18
Posted: 8/23/2013 9:35:38 AM
great stuff jimmy, looking forward to a great year. who you got in the title game? bama vs ?








GL to all
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#19
Posted: 8/23/2013 9:48:00 AM
Look forward to a great year. GL
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#20
Posted: 8/23/2013 9:48:55 AM
BOL Freak. I believe ill be on a couple of those as well. 

Much respect, get money! 
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#21
Posted: 8/23/2013 10:02:53 AM
Great to see you back freak! I checked into your bets very often last year and was pissed when I found out you couldn't post. Good luck this year!
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#22
Posted: 8/23/2013 10:33:17 AM
Good luck this year jimmy. 
Your girl in her mid thirties by now
Jeezus what a hottie she is
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#23
Posted: 8/23/2013 10:33:43 AM
Nice work as usual, Jimmy.

Good luck this season


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#24
Posted: 8/23/2013 10:43:34 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Laroja:

Hi Jimmy where did you get the 1st half lines.

I explained in the 1st post that the 1st half lines are estimates.

 

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#25
Posted: 8/23/2013 11:06:03 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by thorpe:



The formatting and colors add a lot to the character count.

Good luck this week/year.  

The only bet I disagree with is your SC/NC Under.  I see a lot of points this game for some reason.

I post my picks in a single post with the same formatting all the time with no such issues.  Furthermore, why can I post 8 picks in a single post, while on the previous post I could only post 1?  Ridiculous!!!

 

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