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Author: [College Football] Topic: Big Dog's take on Nevada - Arizona
The_BigDog
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#1
Posted: 12/12/2012 5:48:39 PM

This bowl game offers the typical lower level bowl type matchup.  A MID LEVEL TEAM from a major conference versus A TOP LEVEL TEAM from a second tier conference.

I give you:  Arizona a MID LEVEL PAC 12 team versus Nevada a TOP LEVEL MWC team

Typically the team from the lower level conference takes this opportunity to show that they are better than the public gives them credit for.  They are EXCITED to be there and they are usually very ready to play.  

While the “better” team has typically lost their last game, which on top of what was an already a very disappointing season, is now compounded by having to play in this “shxxt bowl”   (Fill in the name of the bowl).

I give you:  Arizona versus Nevada

Keeping that in mind, this could be a very entertaining game to watch. We have two very offense minded coaches featuring the top two rushers in the nation in this game…

 #1 Arizona’s  Ka’Deem Carey; 275 rushes for 1,757 yards, 20 TD, 6.39 YPR, 146.4 YPG

#2 Nevada’s Stefphon Jefferson; 341 rushes for 1,703 yards, 22 TD, 4.99 YPR, 141.9 YPG

Nevada averages 260 YPG rushing and Arizona 230 YPG…..   On the surface, it appears that both teams are fairly equal in rushing stats.  But not all rushing yards are created equal. Nevada’s stats are padded by these performances:  1,460 of 3,120 total rushing yards came against: New Mexico, UNLV, Hawaii & FCS NW State. While Arizona gained only 760 of their 2.765 yards against their two creampuffs; Colorado, & FCS SC State

Who is easier to run on? Stanford, Oregon, Oregon State, UCLA, Arizona State OR New Mexico, UNLV, Hawaii, Texas State, Wyoming and FCS NW State?`

Arizona has four quality wins; USC, Washington, Oklahoma State and Toledo.

Their five loses were against; Stanford, Oregon, Oregon State, UCLA, Arizona State… A combined 47-13 WL record.

Nevada has six FBS wins against teams with a combined 24-61 record.  The highest ranked team they beat was Wyoming (89). And Nevada was 0-4 against teams with winning records.

Let’s talk rushing defenses; both teams have had issues stopping the run this season.  Arizona ranks near the bottom of the PAC-12 giving up 189 rushing YPG, Nevada is giving up 213 rushing YPG. But, Not so fast….. Once again, Arizona gave up their yards to a significantly better level of competition. This stuff matters.

I have not spent much time talking about passing performances because I feel the key to this game is the rushing game. I feel that Arizona has the edge in the passing game as evidenced by a 50 YPG advantage against much better defenses. That’s my story and I am sticking to it.

Typically I look for these kinds of matchups and take the points, especially if I can get to or across a key number like 10 in this case.  It would be easy to buy it from +9.5 to +10.  You can study a matchup until you get cross-eyed. At some point you have to input your actual observations from watching actual games each team has played.

You want THE WILDCARD FACTOR for this game?  Arizona is currently ranked NUMBER ONE in the PAC-12 recruiting class!!!  I know those kids will not play in this game, but do you think Rich Rod wants to lay an egg here? I think Arizona has a LOT OF POSITIVE MOMENTUM, in spite of the ASU loss and not playing in a better bowl. I think that intangible along with an in depth analysis of the raw numbers, makes me want to lay the points here.

ARIZONA -9.5

Another way to play this game. Arizona is 17th in nation with 37.3 PPG and Nevada is 20th with 37.0 PPG… That’s 74.3 Average PPG.  The total is set at 75 in this game. I think the OVER is a very righteous play here. I would not be surprised to see it go significantly over that number.

TOTAL OVER 75

I play with actual money, so please don't be shy. Honest input would be appreciated.

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The_BigDog
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#2
Posted: 12/12/2012 5:52:38 PM
Mistype... AZ is near the top in PAC 12 recruiting...
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#3
Posted: 12/12/2012 6:03:01 PM
[Quote: Originally Posted by The_BigDog]

This bowl game offers the typical lower level bowl type matchup.  A MID LEVEL TEAM from a major conference versus A TOP LEVEL TEAM from a second tier conference.

I give you:  Arizona a MID LEVEL PAC 12 team versus Nevada a TOP LEVEL MWC team

Typically the team from the lower level conference takes this opportunity to show that they are better than the public gives them credit for.  They are EXCITED to be there and they are usually very ready to play.  

While the “better” team has typically lost their last game, which on top of what was an already a very disappointing season, is now compounded by having to play in this “shxxt bowl”   (Fill in the name of the bowl).

I give you:  Arizona versus Nevada

Keeping that in mind, this could be a very entertaining game to watch. We have two very offense minded coaches featuring the top two rushers in the nation in this game…

 #1 Arizona’s  Ka’Deem Carey; 275 rushes for 1,757 yards, 20 TD, 6.39 YPR, 146.4 YPG

#2 Nevada’s Stefphon Jefferson; 341 rushes for 1,703 yards, 22 TD, 4.99 YPR, 141.9 YPG

Nevada averages 260 YPG rushing and Arizona 230 YPG…..   On the surface, it appears that both teams are fairly equal in rushing stats.  But not all rushing yards are created equal. Nevada’s stats are padded by these performances:  1,460 of 3,120 total rushing yards came against: New Mexico, UNLV, Hawaii & FCS NW State. While Arizona gained only 760 of their 2.765 yards against their two creampuffs; Colorado, & FCS SC State

Who is easier to run on? Stanford, Oregon, Oregon State, UCLA, Arizona State OR New Mexico, UNLV, Hawaii, Texas State, Wyoming and FCS NW State?`

Arizona has four quality wins; USC, Washington, Oklahoma State and Toledo.

Their five loses were against; Stanford, Oregon, Oregon State, UCLA, Arizona State… A combined 47-13 WL record.

Nevada has six FBS wins against teams with a combined 24-61 record.  The highest ranked team they beat was Wyoming (89). And Nevada was 0-4 against teams with winning records.

Let’s talk rushing defenses; both teams have had issues stopping the run this season.  Arizona ranks near the bottom of the PAC-12 giving up 189 rushing YPG, Nevada is giving up 213 rushing YPG. But, Not so fast….. Once again, Arizona gave up their yards to a significantly better level of competition. This stuff matters.

I have not spent much time talking about passing performances because I feel the key to this game is the rushing game. I feel that Arizona has the edge in the passing game as evidenced by a 50 YPG advantage against much better defenses. That’s my story and I am sticking to it.

Typically I look for these kinds of matchups and take the points, especially if I can get to or across a key number like 10 in this case.  It would be easy to buy it from +9.5 to +10.  You can study a matchup until you get cross-eyed. At some point you have to input your actual observations from watching actual games each team has played.

You want THE WILDCARD FACTOR for this game?  Arizona is currently ranked NUMBER ONE in the PAC-12 recruiting class!!!  I know those kids will not play in this game, but do you think Rich Rod wants to lay an egg here? I think Arizona has a LOT OF POSITIVE MOMENTUM, in spite of the ASU loss and not playing in a better bowl. I think that intangible along with an in depth analysis of the raw numbers, makes me want to lay the points here.

ARIZONA -9.5

Another way to play this game. Arizona is 17th in nation with 37.3 PPG and Nevada is 20th with 37.0 PPG… That’s 74.3 Average PPG.  The total is set at 75 in this game. I think the OVER is a very righteous play here. I would not be surprised to see it go significantly over that number.

to answer your question  question...no.

however, Nevada doesn't want to lay an egg either

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#4
Posted: 12/12/2012 6:09:04 PM
"Who is easier to run on? Stanford, Oregon, Oregon State, UCLA, Arizona State OR New Mexico, UNLV, Hawaii, Texas State, Wyoming and FCS NW State?`"

The cream puff reference is this...13.7% of total yardage per opponents listed for AZ and 11.6% per opp for UNR.  That's LESS for UNR ground game per "creampuff" and yet you try to lump all the teams you declare as creampuffs PLUS Wyoming and Texas St. for UNR which I can only you think are garbage...and don't include these "creampuff" teams in your analysis of AU.

This selective analysis ruins the rest of your post thanks for nothing.

The hell happened to Colorado and SC state>?
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#5
Posted: 12/12/2012 6:26:20 PM
Liking Arizona as well  (might just be a small play for me ) 

people have been blasting the PAC 12 all season 

thinking they do pretty well in the Bowls 

Best of Luck Brother
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The_BigDog
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#6
Posted: 12/12/2012 6:41:50 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by MJCpirate:

"Who is easier to run on? Stanford, Oregon, Oregon State, UCLA, Arizona State OR New Mexico, UNLV, Hawaii, Texas State, Wyoming and FCS NW State?`"

The cream puff reference is this...13.7% of total yardage per opponents listed for AZ and 11.6% per opp for UNR.  That's LESS for UNR ground game per "creampuff" and yet you try to lump all the teams you declare as creampuffs PLUS Wyoming and Texas St. for UNR which I can only you think are garbage...and don't include these "creampuff" teams in your analysis of AU.

This selective analysis ruins the rest of your post thanks for nothing.

The hell happened to Colorado and SC state>?

selective analysis... mmmmm

I would love to address that, which AZ creampuffs you talking about?

They Played:

Arizona State

UCLA

Stanford

Oregon

Oregon State

Utah

USC

Washington

Oklahoma State

Toledo

The only teams that I could find that I could call creampuffs are:

Colorado and South Carolina State....

Even Karl Pearson would know how to weight that data....

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The_BigDog
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#7
Posted: 12/12/2012 6:48:00 PM

And YES, I call Nevada's creampuffs as:

New Mexico, UNLV, Hawaii, Texas State, Wyoming and FCS NW State

I must not understand your point, as I think those should be considered as creampuffs.   My point was that rushing against those guys is way easier than rushing against Zona's opponents.... 

 

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#8
Posted: 12/12/2012 7:23:56 PM
I agree... thanks for posting... I guess the point that I was trying to make is: A lot of times a team like AZ in a bowl after a bad beat against in state rival, and a disappointing season typical does not get up for this kind of bowl.  I think this is an EXCEPTION.....  I was trying to say that AZ is a better team, but more importantly... I think they WANT this game.... 

Ault is a hall of fame coach, he will have no trouble motivating his team for this game... no, they don't want to lay an egg... and they could win SU without question....    This would normally be a game where you take the points, the public will be all over the fav....   I just think that ZONA wants to start their 2013 season with a big win this Saturday.

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#9
Posted: 12/12/2012 7:25:41 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MJCpirate:



This selective analysis ruins the rest of your post thanks for nothing.

The hell happened to Colorado and SC state>?
Thanks for taking time to post your opinion
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#10
Posted: 12/12/2012 8:30:39 PM
i agree with your breakdown... and i think Arizona will put up 40+ pts in this game... i don't think Nevada will necessarily put up enough to make the over a great bet...

Arizona (-9.5)
Ariz TT OV 40

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#11
Posted: 12/12/2012 9:18:44 PM

Here's my take on this Bowl Game: It SUCKS.

Why doesn't Arizona play Georgia...or Florida? Why not? How come America doesn't get a cross regional Bowl game?

Because Arizona would likely kick their fools, and that is the WHOLE point. Noone cares regionally about Arizona playing Nevada--exc. maybe the players about to crack pads and helmets tomorrow night.

Arizona should have their way, and two scores is not out of reach for them. Nevada plays their best ball at home, at elevation.

 

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#12
Posted: 12/12/2012 11:21:23 PM
Complete opposite. Nevada +9.5. Nevada has the edge coaching wise and offense wise. Defenses are about the same. Nevada wants to beat the big boys, and I'm implying that Arizona is a "big boy". Would not be surprised to see Nevada win this one SU.

And I'm also taking Under 75. This is a bowl game, and defenses always show up in bowl games.


Arizona 34
Nevada 31
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#13
Posted: 12/12/2012 11:33:43 PM

great write-up bigdog. I said from day 1 which pissed off a lot of my fellow michiganders that 3 things in life would soon be certain

1. death

2. taxes

3. rich-Rod will win big at Arizona

I'm not betting the game myself but great write-up bigdog.

 

 

 

 

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#14
Posted: 12/13/2012 1:03:36 AM
[Quote: Originally Posted by Quantum_Leap]

Here's my take on this Bowl Game: It SUCKS.

Why doesn't Arizona play Georgia...or Florida? Why not? How come America doesn't get a cross regional Bowl game?

Because Arizona would likely kick their fools, and that is the WHOLE point. Noone cares regionally about Arizona playing Nevada--exc. maybe the players about to crack pads and helmets tomorrow night.

Arizona should have their way, and two scores is not out of reach for them. Nevada plays their best ball at home, at elevation.

 

Q, if you notice this and most other bowl seasons, matchups are considered for attracting fans to reasonable locales to sell the most tickets . I agree I would rather see totally different geographic matchups but, like here in Texas, they try to get in bowls that geographically fit their fan bases i.e. TX playing @ San Antonio, A&M vs Ou @ Jerryworld, they are just trying  make $$$

And yes, this bowl sucks, but I would have to play the over as long as the weather is favorable   Lets keep these bowl writeups coming, it can really help with varying opinions AND analysis
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#15
Posted: 12/13/2012 8:25:02 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TrebIecyde:

Complete opposite. Nevada +9.5. Nevada has the edge coaching wise and offense wise. Defenses are about the same. Nevada wants to beat the big boys, and I'm implying that Arizona is a "big boy". Would not be surprised to see Nevada win this one SU.

And I'm also taking Under 75. This is a bowl game, and defenses always show up in bowl games.


Arizona 34
Nevada 31

Good point on defenses showing up after a long layoff. Offenses can struggle because they lose their rhythm. However, in a matchup where neither team has played much defense all year, I had to base my call on the offensive capabilities and adjust my results based on the quality of the competition each team faced.

Ault is a hall of famer, and he deserves to be. He's a very innovative coach.

Just a footnote, I have this game at 7 in my confidence pools. That should tell you how much I think of my pick.  

Degenerate that I am, I wanted some action on the game and after my analysis just felt better about laying the chalk in this one. I do feel pretty good about the over though. Both teams can score a lot of points and this could be a shootout. I think the winner scores 50+. I am hoping the over can save my (_o_) IF the side lets me down. BOL to all  

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#16
Posted: 12/13/2012 9:07:58 AM
I hate laying DD in bowl games but I'll do it here. Arizona has scored tons of points against decent/good teams; namely Stanford, USC, Oklahoma State, etc. Nevada has not stopped anybody this year and I doubt they will be able to stop a very efficient and uptempo pac 12 team. I have Arizona scoring in the high 40's to the low 50's in this game. If they can get there I think they have a great shot at covering the spread.  Arizona -6 1st half and Arizona -9.5 full game for me.
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#17
Posted: 12/13/2012 9:27:09 AM
Backdoor scares me in this game.  Arizona doesn't often play hard for 60 minutes.  You give Nevada some breaks and let them get the pistol o rolling, and this looks like a 1 score game to me. If Zona plays their best game, they win by 20 or more.
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#18
Posted: 12/13/2012 10:36:15 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Quantum_Leap:

 

Arizona should have their way, and two scores is not out of reach for them. Nevada plays their best ball at home, at elevation.

 

might want to re-check your info Quantum. Nevada was 5-1 on the road this year including wins at PAC12 Cal, giving Hawaii their worst home loss in a decade, and in Albuquerque where this Bowl is played. They were only 2-4 at home.
RichRod was 1-3 on the road, outscored by 100+ pts.

Big Dog-against ya on this one but certainly respect all your posts and insights. GL with your Bowl'ing
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#19
Posted: 12/13/2012 3:54:03 PM

Thanks Big Dog. I agree with your take although I must admit (like thorpe) that the backdoor cover is a concern.

Nevertheless I'm on at -9.5

Good punting mate

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#20
Posted: 12/15/2012 1:42:55 AM
Arz
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#21
Posted: 12/15/2012 1:54:50 AM
Great write up and I completely agree 
As far as public being all overt the fave, that's usually the case by I've heard from my buddy at an MGM property book that the public is all over Nevada 
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#22
Posted: 12/15/2012 2:09:20 AM
your analysis is very accurate and similar to ESPN Insider preview of this match.  Your stats are identical and you make similar comparisons.  I have seen Hawaii  get blown out by NV and their running game but I also saw NV get whipped by a less than healthy AF team.  This same AF team also lost to Navy and Army.  Gun to my head I gotta take AZ.  Hopefully they will be motivated for this crap bowl.  I know NV will be disappointed because they usually spend Christmas in Hawaii.  Been to at least two in recent memory or is that Fresno St. I am thinking of.  Either case was nice watching Colin K. play here and also Ryan Matthews both in the pros now.
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#23
Posted: 12/15/2012 9:05:02 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ShadowWarrior:

.
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#24
Posted: 12/15/2012 9:05:58 AM

Shadow, you should make some picks in my bowl challenge pool.

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#25
Posted: 12/15/2012 10:20:39 AM
Best of luck BigDog
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