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Author: [College Football] Topic: 6 Rules for this years Bowls
thorpe send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#26
Posted: 12/4/2012 11:45:37 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bob_sakimano:

not sure about ASU.. Another rule is generally to back the armed forces in bowl games, especially against schools like ASU who come out undisciplined after a long layoff

Navy this year has not looked good in a lot of games.  ASU is also very inconsistent.  ASU has the D Line to stop the option and an offense that can put up a lot of points on Navy's suspect defense, but I could also see Navy winning or losing by 3 points.  I probably won't be betting this game for more than 5 bucks.

But with systems, it is usually the play you like the least that covers easiest, and if Navy falls behind they could get blown out.
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#27
Posted: 12/4/2012 11:48:27 PM
Bob, just checked my power ratings, and they agree with you.  They would have this line at ASU -9.5
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#28
Posted: 12/5/2012 12:27:35 AM
Ill be all over navy +14. They might even.win su in my opinion. Sun Devils don't look to great and navy will get some confidence going into the bowl season after the spanking they lay on the black knights
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#29
Posted: 12/5/2012 1:52:19 AM
don't forget the dark-shirted uniforms rule ...

( I'm sure those threads are still around somewhere )


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#30
Posted: 12/5/2012 3:38:12 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by thorpe:


Navy this year has not looked good in a lot of games.  ASU is also very inconsistent.  ASU has the D Line to stop the option and an offense that can put up a lot of points on Navy's suspect defense, but I could also see Navy winning or losing by 3 points.  I probably won't be betting this game for more than 5 bucks.

But with systems, it is usually the play you like the least that covers easiest, and if Navy falls behind they could get blown out.

Agree Thorpe I will lay off this game as well.. A big key to ASU stopping the trip option will be the health of DT Will Sutton.. Hes an absolute animal and means more this this team than any other player. All in all sounds like a pass on this one
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#31
Posted: 12/5/2012 7:22:21 PM
As always only the best to you and your followers with your bowl tickets thorpe! Thanks for sharing pal!
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#32
Posted: 12/5/2012 8:05:20 PM
Thorpe, great insight. I see SJSU is one of your top 3. Which schools make up the other top 3 for you?
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#33
Posted: 12/5/2012 9:21:13 PM
Gl on bowl season will look at your plays and insight 
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#34
Posted: 12/6/2012 12:08:08 AM

Good stuff bro

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#35
Posted: 12/8/2012 8:03:42 AM
I think there is some really good value in this analysis - obviously not to win every game - but I think you ll do pretty well
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#36
Posted: 12/8/2012 8:38:09 AM
Rule 2 and rule 6 don't work together...
Is there any SEC teams that are underdogs?
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#37
Posted: 12/8/2012 8:53:05 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by thorpe:

Whichever is the first rule that applies...

1.  Bet on any school with "State" in the name west of Oklahoma

2.  Bet on all SEC schools 

3.  Bet against the whole B10 

4.  Bet against the whole ACC

5.  Bet on the Big East

6.  Bet the underdog


 

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#38
Posted: 12/8/2012 9:58:11 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CapPRO:

Rule 2 and rule 6 don't work together...
Is there any SEC teams that are underdogs?

First rule that applies.  So, only take the underdog where rules 1 through 5 do not apply.


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#39
Posted: 12/9/2012 2:18:47 PM
hmmmmm I Love these SEC Squads in their Bowls 

Alabama   something like 38-9.... Will be snoozing by half time !!

LSU       Clemson is gonna get raped 

South Carolina        Michigan is in BIG DOO-DOO 

Ole Miss       Played so much better down the stretch ...Hugh Freeze is my Home Slice 

Vanderbilt       Fading the ACC's super stinker NC St .


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#40
Posted: 12/9/2012 11:03:38 PM
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#41
Posted: 12/10/2012 8:05:25 AM
GL thorpe...
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#42
Posted: 12/11/2012 1:11:33 PM
hey thorpe

just to point out

THERES NO WAY I HELL

a person in his/her rite mind can bet on Louiville facing the gators---so that might be the only BEE underdog i wont be betting on
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#43
Posted: 12/11/2012 3:28:48 PM
Very interesting.  Do you run this method every year or just specific to this year's games?  I went back to my spread sheet from last bowl season and would have racked up a lot more games.
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#44
Posted: 12/11/2012 5:10:06 PM

Very interesting perspective...and I wish you the best of luck with it.  But MY OPINION ONLY and not rapping at all, but I don't see it even busting even. I'm wrong alot  

Every year everyone loves the SEC.  Doesn't Vegas know that?! I will agree they're the cream of the crop, but look at ATS records last 3 years...4-5 in '09-10, 5-5 in '10-11, and 5-2 last year (wont count ALA-LSU).   53.8% not gonna put any money in your pocket.  The SEC upper tier...do you want to lay double digits in a Bowl Game,  I don't. And the others...Vandy, ISU, ole Miss, Miss St..you can have them...

Again, best of luck. Hope everyone makes money.

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#45
Posted: 12/11/2012 5:35:21 PM
Love it. WC love
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#46
Posted: 12/11/2012 7:04:57 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by shark_apreza:

hey thorpe

just to point out

THERES NO WAY I HELL

a person in his/her rite mind can bet on Louiville facing the gators---so that might be the only BEE underdog i wont be betting on

System says to take Florida in that bowl by rule #2.
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#47
Posted: 12/11/2012 7:08:37 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by WhiteMice:

Very interesting perspective...and I wish you the best of luck with it.  But MY OPINION ONLY and not rapping at all, but I don't see it even busting even. I'm wrong alot  

Every year everyone loves the SEC.  Doesn't Vegas know that?! I will agree they're the cream of the crop, but look at ATS records last 3 years...4-5 in '09-10, 5-5 in '10-11, and 5-2 last year (wont count ALA-LSU).   53.8% not gonna put any money in your pocket.  The SEC upper tier...do you want to lay double digits in a Bowl Game,  I don't. And the others...Vandy, ISU, ole Miss, Miss St..you can have them...

Again, best of luck. Hope everyone makes money.


If you told me SEC would be at worst 4-5 I would take that up front. 

The SEC is football 12 months a year, so they are usually peaking for their bowl game, unlike other schools who have moved on..
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#48
Posted: 12/11/2012 7:16:52 PM
Sec bomes check out ats the past decade it aint so wondeful! Vandy lost to northwester they cany be that good! Miss state please they suck! You got bama and lsu thats it!

That same georgia team lost last season to michigan state! darn sec and the homers!
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#49
Posted: 12/11/2012 7:37:49 PM

How about the school with the hottest cheerleaders angle? 

Still good, or has it petered out?

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#50
Posted: 12/11/2012 8:17:41 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by thorpe:


If you told me SEC would be at worst 4-5 I would take that up front. 

The SEC is football 12 months a year, so they are usually peaking for their bowl game, unlike other schools who have moved on..
I agree with that,  and do think upper tier SEC is the class of college foots. Can't deny that. But winning Bowl games and covering double digit spreads do not go hand-in-foot.  The spread records are what they are.
Good luck, win a bunch
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