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Author: [College Football] Topic: LOAD up on ND +11.5 v Bama at 5dimes
BLOODandTHUNDER send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#76
Posted: 11/27/2012 2:24:14 AM
[Quote: Originally Posted by jimmydafreak]

Oklahoma 13 (atrocious offensive line)

Stanford 13 (atrocious 1-dimensional offensive)

USC 13 (atrocious offensive line)

Spotting a trend?


We shall see or maybe we won't Good luck Saturday.

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Posted: 11/27/2012 2:30:29 AM

My money is on ND I am not the slightest bit concerned. I have heard this arguement about talent mismatch all year and yet ND is 12-0. Maybe Bama or UGA rolls em maybe they don't we will know Jan 7 and I will get to see it first hand.

Good Luck Saturday

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#78
Posted: 11/27/2012 2:59:16 AM
I think if you like Alabama, you play them now. Seems to me, Bama couldblow out Georgia, and reflex bettors will see only one choice, esp w/ ND on the sidelines.If you like ND you waita few days after the blowout win by Bama--who eithe rcovers by a mile or loses SU.
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#79
Posted: 11/27/2012 3:57:07 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BLOODandTHUNDER:

My money is on ND I am not the slightest bit concerned. I have heard this arguement about talent mismatch all year and yet ND is 12-0. Maybe Bama or UGA rolls em maybe they don't we will know Jan 7 and I will get to see it first hand.

Good Luck Saturday


They have not played a team anywhere close to what they will face in Miami. 
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#80
Posted: 11/27/2012 4:00:00 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:



As of right now we have no idea if Alabama will be in the national championship game yet or not, but if they do make it I get that you're going to bet on Notre Dame, and I have no desire whatsoever to change talk you out of it.  But be forewarned, however, that not only is your Notre Dame bet going to lose, it is going to lose huge.

I know you don't want to hear it, and you won't believe me even if I tell you, but this game is a huge talent mismatch in favor of Alabama.  The biggest mismatch is not even in the starting lineups.  The biggest mismatch is where games are frequently won and lost - depth.  Alabama also has a huge advantage in skill position players.

Notre Dame's offense has been atrocious all season, and they certainly aren't going to get well in the championship game playing against the #1 defense in the nation.  There is not a single player on Notre Dame's offense that poses even the slightest threat to Alabama's defense except for the possibility of their TE Tyler Eifert.  Notre Dame has no big play threats, and they have virtually no chance of driving the length of the field and scoring a touchdown.  I would rate Notre Dame's chances of scoring a touchdown in this game at under 20%.

As I said above, it doesn't bother me one bit that if this game comes to fruition that you will put your money on Notre Dame, but you can't say you weren't duly warned of the consequences of doing so.



It's fair to say that UF's defense has been the best in the nation, they haven't given up over 20 to any team and have had the toughest schedule in the nation. Other than that I agree with everything. UF's secondary is better than Alabamas this year
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#81
Posted: 11/27/2012 9:35:00 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jwheels86:


It's fair to say that UF's defense has been the best in the nation, they haven't given up over 20 to any team and have had the toughest schedule in the nation. Other than that I agree with everything. UF's secondary is better than Alabamas this year


Statistically speaking Alabama's defense ranks #1 in points allowed per game and yards allowed per game.  Notre Dame ranks #2 in ppg, and #6 in ypg.  Florida ranks #3 in ppg and #5 in ypg.  I'm not really a big stats guy in college football because of the huge schedule disparities, but statistically speaking Alabama's defense is #1.  Florida, however, played a tougher schedule than Alabama, so they may very well have a better defense.


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#82
Posted: 11/27/2012 9:39:51 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Quantum_Leap:

I think if you like Alabama, you play them now. Seems to me, Bama couldblow out Georgia, and reflex bettors will see only one choice, esp w/ ND on the sidelines.If you like ND you waita few days after the blowout win by Bama--who eithe rcovers by a mile or loses SU.


Bookmaker does not have a line out on Alabama and Notre Dame.  I'll bet as much as they'll let me on the open and add to it.  I expect the line to be around 2 touchdowns at kickoff.




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#83
Posted: 11/27/2012 9:56:25 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:



Oklahoma 13 (atrocious offensive line)

Stanford 13 (atrocious 1-dimensional offensive)

USC 13 (atrocious offensive line)

Spotting a trend?



Jimmy has it here! As I've said in a prior post, Oklahoma lost IN NORMAN TWICE! They are clearly not the team everyone thought they were. Good, but far from great. 

USC is just all around brutal. Sure, talent is there, but they remind me of the Eagles. Talent, but zero line, and many mistakes. I still firmly believe if Barkley starts that game the Irish lose. 

And Stanford's offense is the furthest thing from an offense. It is more or less a battering ram that attempts to play for field advantage. They push for a few, punt, hold good on D, push for a few, punt, hold them again, and soon are in the other team's territory. 

The teams being talked about dont have Alabama talent and execution. 
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Posted: 11/27/2012 10:41:44 AM
Ok so i typed out a nice long response to you Blood, but f'ing covers deleted it. So I'll just say this. We obviously disagree about each teams offensive potency, that's fine. But if you truly believe ND will keep bama from sniffing 20 points why the hello would you not pound the under and stay away from ND?!?! Because if you think bama's tt is under 20 how many points do you really think ND will score?? I don't see more than 9. So why risk it and instead just play the under??
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#85
Posted: 11/27/2012 11:06:42 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BLOODandTHUNDER:

My money is on ND I am not the slightest bit concerned. I have heard this arguement about talent mismatch all year and yet ND is 12-0. Maybe Bama or UGA rolls em maybe they don't we will know Jan 7 and I will get to see it first hand.

Good Luck Saturday



All of the 11 & 1 and 10 & 2 SEC teams are significantly more talented than Notre DameNotre Dame's defensive front 7 is SEC caliber in size, speed and talent.  There is no question about that.  I think you can also make an argument that their offensive line is also SEC caliber.  Notre Dame, however, does not have SEC athletes or an SEC caliber QB.  Where teams like Notre Dame and other teams outside the SEC also consistently fall short is their roster depth.  As Saban constantly preaches "the bottom 40 guys on your roster usually determines how good [a] team really is."

What made LSU so good last season???  Depth.  In laying almost two touchdowns with LSU in the SEC Championship Game last season I said that Georgia had the talent to hang with LSU for a little while, but lacked the depth to stay with them for 4 quarters.  That is exactly how that game played out.  Georgia actually outplayed LSU in the 1st half, but got steamrolled in the 2nd.

That is also what makes Alabama so good.  They have so much quality depth all across their roster.  That allows then to send wave after wave of fresh players into the game and still be extremely consistent.  Most teams simply can't withstand the onslaught for 4 quarters.  All good teams have quality starters.  What separates championship teams from good teams is what they have behind those starters.

This is what frustrates Saban about no-huddle offenses.  It negates the huge depth advantage he has over other teams.  Saban has a specific personnel packages for every situation.  When the opposing team starts pacing his defense, he can't get the personnel he wants on the field.  If he's in a dime package on 3rd and long, and the opposing team picks up a 1st down, then he has a defensive package in the game that is susceptible to the run if he is unable to make the necessary substitutions.

I'm not sure who you've been hearing the talent mismatch argument from all season, but Notre Dame hasn't played a team that has had any significant talent advantage over them.  The only teams that Notre Dame has played that you could even make that argument without being laughed at would be Oklahoma and USC, and I honestly don't think either of these teams holds a significant talent advantage over Notre Dame, if any at all.  Talent wise Michigan, Michigan State, Stanford and Notre Dame are all pretty much even.  Aside from those 5 teams Notre Dame was significantly more talented than every other team they played.

The level of talent Notre Dame will face if they play Alabama is in a completely different universe.  On the flip side, Alabama routinely plays teams like Notre Dame in conference play.  Notre Dame is the perfect match-up for Alabama.


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#86
Posted: 11/27/2012 11:18:32 AM
Jimmy i thought you were all over ND... I must have missed a few posts somewhere. Dead on post tho brotha!
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#87
Posted: 11/27/2012 11:23:12 AM
ND sucks behind in the redzone, kicking way too many FGs; this is a problem that has occured all season long. They also have one of the worst punt return teams, this is important because it seems like almost every game I watch the Tide play; they give up a kickoff TD,PUNT td or give up lots of yardage.
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#88
Posted: 11/27/2012 11:28:42 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by wheaty :

Jimmy i thought you were all over ND... I must have missed a few posts somewhere. Dead on post tho brotha!


Not hardly.  This match-up would be Alabama vs. Michigan II
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#89
Posted: 11/27/2012 11:40:35 AM
too much talking,

i will laugh my fukking behind off Bama loses on Sat,

Jimmy, i fukking called LSU under 10.5 wins in the face of many doubters, yourself included, though i respect your knowledge very much
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Posted: 11/27/2012 12:15:41 PM
Why would you laugh?? I think everyone is in agreement that Georgia is much more of a challenge than ND. Either way, my money will be on either SEC in the championship game. And grid, i will be on the winning side my man
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#91
Posted: 11/27/2012 12:18:15 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gridironguy:

too much talking,

i will laugh my fukking behind off Bama loses on Sat,

Jimmy, i fukking called LSU under 10.5 wins in the face of many doubters, yourself included, though i respect your knowledge very much


You need to go back and read that post again.  Although I didn't think it was a great bet at the time, as an Alabama fan I told you I was rooting for you to win your bet.  I knew if you won your bet that Alabama would win the SEC West so of course I would root for that.  That said, you were extremely fortunate that LSU had a plethora of critical personnel losses through injuries, non-qualifiers and Tyrann Mathieu being kick off the team.

Many draft experts projected Chris Faulk as a 1st round pick in next season's draft.  And as crippling as the Mathieu and Faulk losses were, the sum of the 9 academic non-qualifiers was probably even worse:  RB Michael Ford - huge loss, LB Tahj Jones - monster loss, TE Tyler Edwards - huge loss to LSU's running game.  All of these losses occurred AFTER you placed your bet.  I'm glad you cashed your ticket, but had these losses not occurred, LSU would likely be sitting at 12 & 0 right now, and preparing for a re-match with Georgia in the SEC Championship Game.

Also, if my memory serves me correctly, you were predicting something like 4 losses for LSU.  Again, I'm glad you cashed your bet, but even with all of the attrition LSU suffered after you placed your bet, you still only won it by the skin of your teeth.  Had I made that bet, I would consider myself extremely lucky to have done so.


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Posted: 11/27/2012 1:02:23 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by wheaty :

Ok so i typed out a nice long response to you Blood, but f'ing covers deleted it. So I'll just say this. We obviously disagree about each teams offensive potency, that's fine. But if you truly believe ND will keep bama from sniffing 20 points why the hello would you not pound the under and stay away from ND?!?! Because if you think bama's tt is under 20 how many points do you really think ND will score?? I don't see more than 9. So why risk it and instead just play the under??

there is no total up when it comes out I will probably take the under as well. ND +11.5 is in my mind not a risk.

 

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Posted: 11/27/2012 1:14:02 PM
Fair enough. Given your train of thought i would consider ND +11.5 a non-risk too. Glad to know im not alone in the under at least
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Posted: 11/27/2012 1:14:37 PM

[Quote: Originally Posted by jimmydafreak]

All of the 11 & 1 and 10 & 2 SEC teams are significantly more talented than Notre DameNotre Dame's defensive front 7 is SEC caliber in size, speed and talent.  There is no question about that.  I think you can also make an argument that their offensive line is also SEC caliber.  Notre Dame, however, does not have SEC athletes or an SEC caliber QB.  Where teams like Notre Dame and other teams outside the SEC also consistently fall short is their roster depth.  As Saban constantly preaches "the bottom 40 guys on your roster usually determines how good [a] team really is."

What made LSU so good last season???  Depth.  In laying almost two touchdowns with LSU in the SEC Championship Game last season I said that Georgia had the talent to hang with LSU for a little while, but lacked the depth to stay with them for 4 quarters.  That is exactly how that game played out.  Georgia actually outplayed LSU in the 1st half, but got steamrolled in the 2nd.

That is also what makes Alabama so good.  They have so much quality depth all across their roster.  That allows then to send wave after wave of fresh players into the game and still be extremely consistent.  Most teams simply can't withstand the onslaught for 4 quarters.  All good teams have quality starters.  What separates championship teams from good teams is what they have behind those starters.

This is what frustrates Saban about no-huddle offenses.  It negates the huge depth advantage he has over other teams.  Saban has a specific personnel packages for every situation.  When the opposing team starts pacing his defense, he can't get the personnel he wants on the field.  If he's in a dime package on 3rd and long, and the opposing team picks up a 1st down, then he has a defensive package in the game that is susceptible to the run if he is unable to make the necessary substitutions.

I'm not sure who you've been hearing the talent mismatch argument from all season, but Notre Dame hasn't played a team that has had any significant talent advantage over them.  The only teams that Notre Dame has played that you could even make that argument without being laughed at would be Oklahoma and USC, and I honestly don't think either of these teams holds a significant talent advantage over Notre Dame, if any at all.  Talent wise Michigan, Michigan State, Stanford and Notre Dame are all pretty much even.  Aside from those 5 teams Notre Dame was significantly more talented than every other team they played.

The level of talent Notre Dame will face if they play Alabama is in a completely different universe.  On the flip side, Alabama routinely plays teams like Notre Dame in conference play.  Notre Dame is the perfect match-up for Alabama.


[/Quote

ND default offensive strategy is no huddle, defense has depth up front.  You are reinforcing my arguement as to why I like ND in this game.

BOL Saturday

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Posted: 11/27/2012 1:34:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jwheels86:


They have not played a team anywhere close to what they will face in Miami. 

If you say so sweetheart. We will see Jan 7. By all means everyone unload your accounts on Bama/UGA vs ND, it is clearly free money what are the sportsbooks thinking?

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Posted: 11/27/2012 1:43:14 PM
How is your rational any different?? You're unloading on ND cuz you think the spread is too high and i quote, "you see NO risk in ND at +11.5". Apparently we're not the only ones thinking the books have the spread wrong lol. You just lay your money with the 'underated big dog'
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#97
Posted: 11/27/2012 1:45:58 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BLOODandTHUNDER:

If you say so sweetheart. We will see Jan 7. By all means everyone unload your accounts on Bama/UGA vs ND, it is clearly free money what are the sportsbooks thinking?



No, I actually believe that the public will be heavier on ND than Bama. Notre Dame will always be the public sweet heart, especially in regards to the American betting public,

I've already posted the statistics in this thread, Golson is a sub 60% passer, when he faces even a decent defense, his completion % then plummets to a whopping 47%. What this tells us is Golson is not a good passer, if he was the great passer you seem to think he is, then Notre Dame would not be running an option dominant offense. Now they will be forced to face the best defense they have all year by far, and all of a sudden Golson is supposed to be successful? It's going to be hard for a QB who's shown to have an inability to throw the ball against above average defenses to run a hurry up offense effectively. I wouldn't be surprised to see Golson complete about 35% of his passes this game.

People are coming at you with great points, yet you keep saying "we'll see." I'm not bashing you, I would just love to hear some valid points from your side, because I feel like everything potential Bama backers have countered has been spot on.
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#98
Posted: 11/27/2012 2:00:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BLOODandTHUNDER:

ND default offensive strategy is no huddle, defense has depth up front.  You are reinforcing my arguement as to why I like ND in this game.

BOL Saturday



Glad I could help.



I have no doubt whatsoever that Notre Dame will run no-huddle.  If you were Brian Kelly, won't you???  I know I would.  The problem is they lack offensive weapons.  In other words, the athletes on Alabama's defense are better than the athletes on Notre Dame's offense.

I think the only shot of keeping this game close is to run the ball effectively and dominate the time of possession like LSU did.  Running no-huddle will most-likely cause a lopsided time of possession advantage for Alabama.


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#99
Posted: 11/27/2012 2:03:58 PM
So whats the scoop guys??? No real consensus and line has already dropped to 10.5 soooooooo Im thinking 11.5 was too high... But is 10.5 still too much???  and do they cancel the bet if Georgia wins or am I SOL?? Thanks fellas

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Posted: 11/27/2012 2:06:30 PM
Spartacus, you're my hero! Lol. Im glad you recognized that ND backers are dodging valid points. Im in no way sold on a side yet since we don't know who for are is playing. Id just like a couple answers to some of the questions posed. I mean Im not calling anybody specific out here but deflecting questions about ND makes those ppl seem way more like homers than the actual homers imo
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