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[College Football] Topic: Freak Pics!!! (Week 11) |
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jimmydafreak |
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#1 Posted: 11/9/2012 10:13:38 PM
I was disappointed and surprised how the FAU/Navy played out last week. First of all I was surprised by how the game was adversely affected by high winds. I checked the weather forecast Friday night right before locking in my bet, and there was no indication that the game would be affected by high wind. The forecast was for basically perfect football weather.
The high wind caused FAU to play very conservatively which resulted in them chewing massive amounts of clock on every possession, most of which resulted in no points. That coupled with Navy's normal clock killing offense slowed the game down to a crawl. Navy really only had 3 scoring-potential possessions in the 2nd half. Navy went into clock killing mode on their 4th 2nd half possession to secure the win.
FAU's defense also played much better than I thought they would. Although Navy did real off 3 touchdowns and a field goal on consecutive possessions at one point, FAU did a great job of not giving up the big play. They also forced 2 punts and 3 field goal attempts. One of FAU's stops was when Navy had a 1st and goal on the 8, and triple option teams are typically very difficult to stop when they have 4 plays to gain less than 10 yards.
The outcome was very disappointing because of my high degree of confidence. Looking back on it I really don't think I would have done anything different based on the information I had going into the game.
Alabama @ LSU Recap:
My extreme confidence going into this game was rooted in my lack of confidence in LSU QB Zack Mettenberger. With absolutely no big-game experience, I really thought he would be rattled and make some mistakes. I thought that Mettenberger's inability to consistently make plays in the passing game would render LSU's offense one-dimensional much the same way they were in the previous two meetings.
On the other side of the ball, I was very confident that unlike the previous two meetings, Alabama would be able to find the end zone a few times. I predicted they would score 27 points. Had Alabama scored 27 points they would have covered, but would have sent the game over the total. I felt like without Morris Claiborne taking away half of the field that Alabama would be able to loosen up the run game with the pass.
LSU had a lot of success running the ball in the 1st half, but that really didn't bother me that much because I knew LSU would not score much being one-dimensional. With Alabama leading 14-3 at the half, and Saban being one of the best at making 2nd half adjustments, I was even more optimistic about the bet than I was before the game began.
The 2nd half obviously didn't play out like I envisioned. While Alabama's defense was able to make some corrections against the run, Mettenberger played with poise and made one incredibly accurate throws after another against usually very tight coverage, and usually on 3rd down. That turned the game on two fronts. By dominating time of possession, Alabama' offense got cold and out of sync, and of course the offensive domination led to two touchdowns and a 17-14 lead.
I fully understood the risks of betting against LSU at Death Valley at night, but even with a significant home field advantage, as good as any in the country, I still did not think Mettenberger would be able to lead LSU's offense to any touchdowns much less two. You have to give Mettenberger and LSU a ton of credit for how well they played. I know a lot of LSU fans and not one of them thought they would play this well. That's why they call it gambling I suppose.
What made last Saturday particularly disappointing was my overall confidence in my card. Rarely do I do so poorly when I'm as confident as I was. Hopefully I can turn things around this week.
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jimmydafreak |
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#2 Posted: 11/9/2012 10:14:17 PM
I had planned to fade Alabama and LSU following their head-to-head match-up as I did last season, but once again the Alabama UNDER looks like a much better bet than the side. I look for this to be a 27-17 type of game. I don't think the total gets close to 57.
Week 10 Final Results
Regular Bets: 6-3-1
Best Bets: 2-3
Max Bets: 0-2
UDMLs: 0-1
Year to date:
Regular Bets: 51-34-2
Best Bets: 26-11
Max Bets: 1-2
UDMLs: 3-6
Saturday Early Games:
Iowa State +10.5 @ Texas *** Best Bet ***
Louisiana Lafayette +27 @ Florida
Purdue +5 @ Iowa
Saturday Afternoon Games:
Texas A&M @ Alabama UNDER 57 *** Best Bet ***
Navy +2 @ Troy
West Virginia +10 @ Oklahoma State
Baylor +21.5 @ Oklahoma
Saturday Afternoon Games:
Georgia -14.5 @ Auburn *** Best Bet ***
Mississippi State +16 @ LSU
Notre Dame @ Boston College +19
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twinkie13 |
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#3 Posted: 11/9/2012 10:17:08 PM
see ya at the other place |
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TRAIN69 |
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#4 Posted: 11/9/2012 10:20:27 PM  |
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jerzeyboy56 |
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#5 Posted: 11/9/2012 10:21:45 PM  |
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MEGALOCKS |
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#6 Posted: 11/9/2012 10:24:20 PM |
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Lb_of_flesh |
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#7 Posted: 11/9/2012 10:24:39 PM |
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hawk007 |
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#8 Posted: 11/9/2012 10:25:29 PM Jimmy,,,,77-45 overall. Awesome.
Lets get em this weekend |
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abizzo24 |
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#9 Posted: 11/9/2012 10:25:39 PM |
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cheeersM8 |
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#10 Posted: 11/9/2012 10:26:00 PM |
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jimmydafreak |
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#11 Posted: 11/9/2012 10:26:29 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by twinkie13: GL Jimmy
see ya at the other place
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usmabama |
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#12 Posted: 11/9/2012 10:26:57 PM
With you on Miss St, BAMA U 57 and a couple others.
I was leaning ULL but couldnt pull the trigger, I probably will tomorrow.
Also liked Iowa St, but the loss of the LB scares me....he and the other LB were the heart of the D.
Against you on BC...was on Pitt last week, but I think ND had its wake up call and will come out swinging. Hope they can run at will. Im thinking ND 31 BC 10 or less...anyway, BOL
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jimmydafreak |
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#13 Posted: 11/9/2012 10:28:41 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by cheeersM8:
BOL dont' let the haters bother you
Been getting in real late every night, so I haven't had time to post much less read the haters.
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jford0523 |
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#14 Posted: 11/9/2012 10:34:03 PM |
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jimmydafreak |
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#15 Posted: 11/9/2012 10:37:10 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by usmabama:
Hey brother...Roll Tide!
With you on Miss St, BAMA U 57 and a couple others.
I was leaning ULL but couldnt pull the trigger, I probably will tomorrow.
Also liked Iowa St, but the loss of the LB scares me....he and the other LB were the heart of the D.
Against you on BC...was on Pitt last week, but I think ND had its wake up call and will come out swinging. Hope they can run at will. Im thinking ND 31 BC 10 or less...anyway, BOL
I'll be at the game tomorrow.
BC, not matter how bad they are, always seem to play Notre Dame tough. BC lives for this game. Results for the past 5 years are as follows:
16-14 (Loss by 2)
31-13 (Loss by 18
20-16 (Loss by 4)
17-0 (Won by 17)
27-14 (Won by 13)
The point is that Notre Dame haven't beat BC by 19 points anytime recently.
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jimmydafreak |
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#16 Posted: 11/9/2012 10:40:12 PM  How the hell can you not like Kayleigh Pearson??? 
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thorpe |
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#17 Posted: 11/9/2012 10:40:48 PM
I like Bama minus the points this week. But also leaning towards the under. This is A&M's 5th road game in 6 weeks, that has to take a toll. The only way to beat Bama is to play great defense and have a pocket passer pick apart the secondary, and A&M shouldn't be able to do either.
Good luck this week. |
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BigJoe83 |
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#18 Posted: 11/9/2012 10:46:26 PM 
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ksuwins |
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#19 Posted: 11/9/2012 10:47:25 PM
Wanted to hit Alabama/A&M first hlf Under...might still do it. I just hope the McCarron's bawling episode on the sideline isn't indicative of how the team feels. Geez, during the post-game on-field interview with Saban by his side...seemed like Saban wanted to say "get a grip, fool...we've been there, done that- for garbage's sake".
On MSU at 15...I think. Letdown city for LSU.
Gonna have a look at ISU. UT looked awful good last week...problem is...they seem to always do well vs TTech, so they might bet back to their shitty reality this week. |
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jaredl |
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#20 Posted: 11/9/2012 10:56:38 PM |
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EatWeights |
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#21 Posted: 11/9/2012 10:59:45 PM  |
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TRAIN69 |
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#22 Posted: 11/9/2012 11:04:14 PM 
I also think ISU and MSU can win SU......
Tex A&M TT 21.5 ? Biggest of the season vs Bama 
Freak
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jimmydafreak |
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#23 Posted: 11/9/2012 11:14:19 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by ksuwins: I've got BC...looking at Purdue.
Wanted to hit Alabama/A&M first hlf Under...might still do it. I just hope the McCarron's bawling episode on the sideline isn't indicative of how the team feels. Geez, during the post-game on-field interview with Saban by his side...seemed like Saban wanted to say "get a grip, fool...we've been there, done that- for garbage's sake".
On MSU at 15...I think. Letdown city for LSU.
Gonna have a look at ISU. UT looked awful good last week...problem is...they seem to always do well vs TTech, so they might bet back to their shitty reality this week.
I though Saban was going to girl slap him, and tell him to get a grip!!!
I can't justify a bet on Alabama this week, but the -13.5 line is begging for Alabama money. I realize this is not a great spot for TAMU either, but I can't back a team coming off such a physical game, and such a huge emotional victory. I think TAMU's defense is good enough to keep Bama under 30 points. If so, then the under is pretty much a lock.
I "Best Bet" WKU last season when they played LSU after their huge victory over Alabama last season. I think they should be faded following their Alabama game again this season.
You know that everyone in the Big 12 hates Texas, and want to beat the garbage out of them. And with TAMU moving on to the SEC, I'm guessing Texas Tech will be their new huge in-state rivalry game. I like the Cyclones to keep it close in what I perceive to be a slight letdown spot for the Longhorns.
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usmabama |
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#24 Posted: 11/9/2012 11:15:44 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:
I'll be at the game tomorrow.
BC, not matter how bad they are, always seem to play Notre Dame tough. BC lives for this game. Results for the past 5 years are as follows:
16-14 (Loss by 2)
31-13 (Loss by 18
20-16 (Loss by 4)
17-0 (Won by 17)
27-14 (Won by 13)
The point is that Notre Dame haven't beat BC by 19 points anytime recently.
Yeah, and they beat them in 93 and 2000 when ND was undefeated, I think?
My thought process is if ND can run against a BC's awful D then they can put up some points...
I was supposed to go to the game, but I have to stay work. Friends and family will be there though.
What do you think about Arky/USCe?
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KiemTienChoiGai |
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#25 Posted: 11/9/2012 11:17:02 PM
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