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Author: [College Football] Topic: Lefty's Leans: Week 6 (+$1,167 last week)
Lefty_Rosenthal send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: M Resort |
Lefty_Rosenthal
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#1
Posted: 10/4/2012 1:32:41 PM


Finally, the gambling gods were good to us.  I ended the week 7-1 and more importantly +$1,167

week 5

That pushes the ytd mark to -$31.  As moose as I was weeks 2-4, that in itself is a miracle.  On the year my ML locks are 9-1, right on pace of my usual 95% pace of the past years.  Onward we go, time to rake in the profits

Now again, my philosophy for betting college football is simple.  Players and coaches care about winning ball games, not covering point spreads.  I like my money on the side of these motivations.

I will be playing TWO ML locks with EVERY play I make.   Last week it was N Illinois and Utah st, both won and covered comfortably.  Here are this weeks two money line locks.

Toledo ML (-440) - I faded an average C Mich last week as N Ill was one of my ML locks.  Last week it was because C Mich was coming off it's big win vs Iowa, this week it's because of a look ahead spot to a Friday Night ESPN game when C Mich takes on Navy.  Not to mention, Toledo is just plain better than C mich, recently beating down a good W Mich team on the road. Look ahead spot for C Mich, Toledo slightly under the radar.  Book it.

Mich St(-650) - Mich St coming off their tough loss against Ohio St, Indiana looked pretty lackluster for majority of their game against Northwestern.  I was not overly impressed with Indiana's offense last week vs a poor northwestern secondary.  They won't be able to move the ball whatsoever on a stout Mich St defense.  And yes, I know Mich St has a dismal offense, but they have been going against some pretty good defenses in Notre Dame and Ohio St, with also a poor performance against E Mich sandwiched in there.  The problem is, Indiana is wretched against the run, Bell will have a field day as they control the game, move the chains.  Great defense, good running game equals Mich St in a blowout win.  They can't afford to start 0-2 in the big ten, and won't against the lowly Hoosiers.

1) Utah +14(-110) - I learned my lesson last week taking the road fav with Stanford handing me my lone ML loss.  This week, an overrated USC team comes into Utah giving way too many points.  Not to mention the weakness of USC is their offensive line and Utah's strength is their defensive line.  We might see something similar as we did in the Stanford/USC matchup, maybe not an upset, but definitely a cover.

Bet $117/$200

2) Clemson ML(-390) - Clemson looked really good against a decent Boston College team on the road last week.  Showed some heart after getting destroyed by FSU the week before.  Georgia Tech on the other hand was exposed, losing to MTSU by 21, a team that lost to Mcneese St in week 1, lol.  Gross.  Georgia Tech is in disarray, now goes into Clemson where it will get destroyed. 

Bet $386/$300
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#2
Posted: 10/4/2012 1:49:26 PM
3) Cincinnati ML(-1000) - Cincinnati at home vs a bad Ball St team.  Cinci has two quality wins, beating Pitt and V Tech while Ball St beaten Mass, Akron, and Southern Illinois.  I love this QB Munchie, great dual threat guy.  Cinci rolls here.

Bet $357/$200

4) Rutgers(-280) - UConn has a good defense, and a truly wretched offense. Rutgers is coming off two great road wins, beating S Fl and Arkansas.  Uconn is not on the same level.  The joint will be hyped, Rutgers rolls, shutting down a mediocre Uconn squad.

Bet $217/$200

5) Mich/Purdue OVER 57.5 - This game is flying under radar a little bit.  Purdue has scored over 100 points in their last two games, while Michigan's offense can still score even though they didn't show it against ND and Alabama, two VERY good defenses.  Marshall was able to hang 40 on Purdue last week, and Mich will do the same.  

Bet $117/$200

6) Louisiana Monroe ML(-170) - Middle Tennessee St coming off their HUGE upset win vs Georgia St now come in a little overrated.  Classic let down spot playing a very good Monroe team that is now 4-0 against the spread.  This game will get ugly, Monroe is the real deal, MTSU lost to Mcneese St this year. 

Bet $320/$400



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#3
Posted: 10/4/2012 2:17:24 PM

Hey Lefty,

i had a great week too, only loss was Arizona and they blew that game away.  I'm having better read on teams now it seems.

i love Toledo too but you have bad line, Cantor is -380. 

I like USC to win by around 7-10 so i'll be on their ml, utah is not as physical as stanford but still will be a challenge.

i really like clemson too, geo tech has played 99th strength of schedule and getting smoked, clemson still has a lot to play for and team regrouped nice last week.

i like rutgers too just worried they may take uconn lightly, see a tight game

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#4
Posted: 10/4/2012 2:22:55 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nickeydyme:

Hey Lefty,

i had a great week too, only loss was Arizona and they blew that game away.  I'm having better read on teams now it seems.

i love Toledo too but you have bad line, Cantor is -380. 

I like USC to win by around 7-10 so i'll be on their ml, utah is not as physical as stanford but still will be a challenge.

i really like clemson too, geo tech has played 99th strength of schedule and getting smoked, clemson still has a lot to play for and team regrouped nice last week.

i like rutgers too just worried they may take uconn lightly, see a tight game



congrats on successful week last week

And as far as the Toledo ML, I agree that's a bad line.  But I have to give up to the date lines, and as of right now I don't see anywhere that has it less than -430 on vegas insider.
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#5
Posted: 10/4/2012 2:27:07 PM
i thought you bet through cantor? i just checked on my phone and its -380, cantor consistently has the best ml's for favorites every week
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#6
Posted: 10/4/2012 4:01:23 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nickeydyme:

i thought you bet through cantor? i just checked on my phone and its -380, cantor consistently has the best ml's for favorites every week


Yeah, I was.  Unfortunately I've had trouble with their software, and the only reason I wanted to go with them is because of the ease of betting on my computer, legally, and that has not been the case.  I think it was you that pointed me to William Hill and I actually like them.  So I'm currently only going thru William Hill on my live bets and 5dimes for my online action
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SportsFreak69
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#7
Posted: 10/4/2012 4:30:42 PM
Best of Luck 
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#8
Posted: 10/4/2012 4:34:06 PM
lol yea thats true and you sent me to cantor, their software was down last saturday morning but that has been only time so far when i tried but it is a bit annoying, but their lines are better than william hill
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#9
Posted: 10/4/2012 4:56:46 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ogtngww891:

***THIS IS A MUST READ *** I NEVER DO THIS BUT I AM TRYING TO HELP EVERYONE WIN THIS YEAR THE WAY I HAVE!!


Eat a person spammer
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#10
Posted: 10/4/2012 4:57:44 PM
sportsfreak -

nickey - that's hilariously ironic.  You got me to go to william hill and i got you to go to cantor, lol
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#11
Posted: 10/5/2012 12:45:47 PM

do you like ohio, toledo, clemson, and rutgers

or ohio, toledo, clemson, and boise

or ohio, toledo, clemson, and miss st

or ohio, toledo, clemson, and wisconsin

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#12
Posted: 10/5/2012 12:48:39 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nickeydyme:

do you like ohio, toledo, clemson, and rutgers

or ohio, toledo, clemson, and boise

or ohio, toledo, clemson, and miss st

or ohio, toledo, clemson, and wisconsin


Definitely The Rutgers one. No way Uconn goes on the road and beats that team the way they are playing 
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#13
Posted: 10/5/2012 1:58:23 PM
ok thx, yea just a lil concerned with the rutgers injuries on defense but revenge spot, at home, better qb, better rb, better def...
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#14
Posted: 10/6/2012 8:16:22 PM
Both ML locks won(Mich St closer than I wanted).  Another big week $$$

1) Utah +14           
2) Clemson ML      
3) Cinci ML             Pending
4) Rutgers ML        
5) Michigan Over      Missed by .5 point.  Sick
6) LA Monre ML     

So far +$983 with Cinci ML still pending

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#15
Posted: 10/6/2012 9:15:16 PM
great day.  i refuse to believe the moneyline parlay is a suckers bet.  i got in on fl st at -600.  seemed like better value than a terrible mich st team..i guess we'll see.   
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#16
Posted: 10/6/2012 9:54:16 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dickritchie:

great day.  i refuse to believe the moneyline parlay is a suckers bet.  i got in on fl st at -600.  seemed like better value than a terrible mich st team..i guess we'll see.   


It's only a sucker's bet if sucker are making it

I've made money with my ML parlay strategy for almost ten years now.  If you do your work, pick about 95% winners on your ML locks like I have done, you will be profitable.  And sometimes you can even be on the wrong side and still win(look at Mich St this week)
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#17
Posted: 10/6/2012 10:31:48 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Lefty_Rosenthal:

Both ML locks won(Mich St closer than I wanted).  Another big week $$$

1) Utah +14           
2) Clemson ML      
3) Cinci ML            
4) Rutgers ML        
5) Michigan Over      Missed by .5 point.  Sick
6) LA Monre ML     

week 6 +$1,183

Ship that garbage

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#18
Posted: 10/6/2012 11:41:33 PM
f me wtf fsu
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#19
Posted: 10/6/2012 11:46:50 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dickritchie:

f me wtf fsu


You got unlucky with that one.  Three fourth down conversions on last drive.  So sick.  Fisher should be blamed for that loss.  Waaaayyy to conservative when they had ball up one with two minutes left.  NC State had all three timeouts, WTF was he thinking.  Playaction on second down, get first, game over.
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#20
Posted: 10/6/2012 11:50:46 PM
Like your system man 
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#21
Posted: 10/7/2012 12:13:27 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by HookEmHorns22:

Like your system man 


thanks brotha
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