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Author: [College Football] Topic: if lsu is getting pounded, why is the line not changing?
pixelchild send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
pixelchild
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#1
Posted: 9/15/2011 12:40:45 PM
not really well versed on betting so any education would be great.

i always assumed if one side gets pounded like lsu is tonight, that the line would change?

the bookies are supposed to even it out in the end right so it has generally 50/50 on bets and they win with juice? i'm so confused.

it worries me that the books have not really changed the line though it seems one side is so lopsidded.
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#2
Posted: 9/15/2011 12:47:03 PM
I'm not expert in capping but I have the same thoughts.  From my past experience this means some heavy money are slammed on MSU side as well.  In Qty bets, for sure LSU has the higher #. 
So far my book has LSU -3.5 (0.5 increase), heard some books are at -4 now. 

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D-X send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#3
Posted: 9/15/2011 12:51:19 PM
maybe vegas see's something we don't....
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pixelchild send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#4
Posted: 9/15/2011 1:14:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by D-X:

maybe vegas see's something we don't....


hope not. i worry lots of secret monies and major players monies are on miss. garbage like this makes me think they're rigging something major.
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tsw send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
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#5
Posted: 9/15/2011 1:22:13 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by pixelchild:



hope not. i worry lots of secret monies and major players monies are on miss. garbage like this makes me think they're rigging something major.

 

 

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KOAJ send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#6
Posted: 9/15/2011 1:30:24 PM
thursday night in conference home dog

have fun laying the points

a few years ago, there were 7 or 8 thurs night dogs in a row and like 85% of them hit
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Professional1 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#7
Posted: 9/15/2011 1:34:32 PM
secret monies
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Greengrass send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#8
Posted: 9/15/2011 1:40:52 PM
IOWA ST OPENED AT -6.5
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#9
Posted: 9/15/2011 2:28:18 PM
First I would ask how do you know LSU is getting pounded?

As far as the line goes it opened at 3 at most shops. It takes a ton of money to move off of that number. When I say a ton I mean a gross amount of money. The line now stands at 3.5 at most shops so I would say a lot of money was bet on LSU. 

Rarely if ever do you see an open of 3 move far off that number unless you have major injuries or suspensions.

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Sosana
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#10
Posted: 9/15/2011 2:34:14 PM

I like how betting % must indicate that somehow one team is getting pounded....

you could have 80% on one side and 20% on the other with no line movement....that 20% could be sharps slapping larger bets with hundreds of thousands of dollars with the other 80% coming close to matching it with smaller bets etc....

You see line movements primarly on two things injuries/suspensions/ or a hell of a lot more money coming on one side the line will be adjusted to lure more money on the other side......

Just my 2 cents....

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pixelchild send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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Posted: 9/15/2011 2:35:22 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Sosana:

I like how betting % must indicate that somehow one team is getting pounded....

you could have 80% on one side and 20% on the other with no line movement....that 20% could be sharps slapping larger bets with hundreds of thousands of dollars with the other 80% coming close to matching it with smaller bets etc....

You see line movements primarly on two things injuries/suspensions/ or a hell of a lot more money coming on one side the line will be adjusted to lure more money on the other side......

Just my 2 cents....



to both tep and sosana, that makes sense thanks.

i think i was confusing betting % with overwhelming money.
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DoubleUp4Life
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#12
Posted: 9/15/2011 2:49:05 PM

Trying to Figure out Line Movement is a waste of time

Trying to figure out who is getting pounded is a waste of time

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RJSizzle send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#13
Posted: 9/15/2011 2:50:01 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:

Trying to Figure out Line Movement is a waste of time

Trying to figure out who is getting pounded is a waste of time




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#14
Posted: 9/15/2011 2:52:21 PM
I looked at 20 or so threads here and give slight edge to miss st picks.
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4degreeswarmer send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BookMaker |
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#15
Posted: 9/15/2011 4:41:55 PM
The books clearly like MSU and would love to take in 2 dollars of LSU money for every MSU dollar they believe they will have to pay out. They dont want it to be 50/50. But books can be wrong. A lot. Wrong tonight? Who knows but just because the books like MSU doesnt mean LSU isnt worth a look. Ive left many bets on the table that just looked too easy, and a lot of them were easy money. Ive learned to not take the book's opinion as pure gospel and its helped my handicapping.
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#16
Posted: 9/15/2011 4:44:00 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Chimpo:

I looked at 20 or so threads here and give slight edge to miss st picks.


20 or so threads here is about 0.0000000000000000000000001% of the people betting this game

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