WASHINGTON +19.5 (USC) 2 Units
Washington won for me 2 weeks ago, playing LSU tough as a DD dog. Tho I never let past results influence the action of today.
But I do expect the Huskies to again cover the spot. And so apparently do others - the opening number of 23 (see covers odds) was knocked down shortly after the opening bell, almost certainly by sharps seeking bargains).
I did get the number at 20, but it's now 19.5 at the consensus Scores and Odds site, so I'll use that. As the public gets into the action as Saturday approaches it may go up to 20, or higher. (John Q Public almost always likes faves and Overs)
BTW, it's strange that anyone doing a public handicap should "shop" for lines, and post the best ones. Everyone should do as I do, use a consensus line, Because if you're doing a public cap, most of the public do not have multiple outs and so often the favorable line the capper gives himself has no relation to reality for his target audience. I'd rather go down in flames than to stoop to those ego-fattening devices. King Ego is a tyrant, true, but we Americans don't care for kings!!
OK. Huskies at home vs a big in-conference team, this one ranked 3rd nationwise.
Here are, as I see it, the positives for USC.
(1) Pete Carroll a top recruiter, so USC is deepest team in college ball. (Tho his recruiting may be on a slow slide down, as other Pac 10 coaches tell top players that if they want NFL later on - they ALL do - they have to play in college, not bench-warm)
(2) Trojans have more speed, especially on defense, than Wash
(3) Top O-line in nation.
All that is pretty formidable, even on the road.
Negs for USC:
(1) Second game in row on road, after a very tough hard-fought win vs Ohio St
(2) Huskie HC Sarkisian knows the offensive game plans of Trojans - he was at SC for 7 years, the last few as "assistant" HC to Pete. Sark also well knows the SC players, esp the QBs, and will be able to exploit their weaknesses.
(3) Several key players injured and either may not play or may be a bit gimpy if they do. Top DB Taylor Mays might play for Trojans, but he still is suffering from a knee. And QB Barkley has not taken any snaps all week, so the lightly experienced Aaron Corps will probably start. Sark knows 'em both, esp Corps.
Positives for Washington:
(1) Last week an easy breeze against Idaho, to re-cuperate from their gargantuan effort agaisnt LSU. Home for this, with their newly-rabid fans rocking the rafters.
(2)Washington, because their school year does not officially start unil Oct 1, get unlimited practrice time !! Most other schools, including USC, have to abide by NCAA rules and limit practice time. That's a big advenage for Dub U.
(3) Jake Locker, Wash QB, vs either Barkley or Corps. A man amongst boys. Not a good time for Mays to have an ouchy knee.
Negs for Washington
(1) Their defensive back 7 doesn't have enough speed to consistently keep up with Troy receivers or breakaway rushers.
I agree with ex-coach Bob Davie that while Willingham did recruit some excellent offenisive players, he fell behind on the defensive side.
(2) While Sark knows Pete and the team, Pete also knows Sark. It works both ways, but the nature of the thing gives Sark a slight advantage.
In all, I'd guess that the negs for Washington are erased by the positives, and the negs for SC only partially countered by the positives.
And the final arbiter, the pointspread, is givng the Huskies almost 3 TDs. I'll take it.
Back in a few minutes with the under for UCLA/K St
. That should be my final college play until maybe Sat