5. Jays 1st 5 RL(even) *2.50
6. Jays 1st 5 ML(+150) *1.25/1.87
7. 1st 5 UNDER 5.5(-110) *1/.91
8. Jays FG ML(+153) *.75/1.15
9. Jays FG -1.5(+230) *.25/.57
I'll start with a whack a s s trend that I've cashed on a few times this year...
Teams that have played at Camden, then on the road the following game are 10-1 SU. Averaging 6.18 rpg, and 3.09 rpga.
The Jays themselves have played at Camden 3 times this year and are 2-0 SU the following road game. Averaging 4.5 rpg, and 2.5 rpga. Their last series was at Camden.
JA Happ last 5 games:
ERA=4.08, FIP=2.98, WHIP=1.50
Rick Porcello last 5 games:
ERA=3.26, FIP=4.86, WHIP=1.32
Pretty similar, Porcello looks better by traditional stats, but there's a 1.88 difference in field independent pitching.
JA Happ vs the Red Sox lineup(15 possible batters):
.193/.658/.292 wOBA
2 guys are hitting over .300 vs Happ, 1 guy is hitting over .400
They are averaging 1 run per 10.76 plate appearances
Rick Porcello vs the Jays lineup(14 possible batters):
.280/.805/.349 wOBA
8 guys are hitting over .300 vs Rick, 4 hitting over .400
They are averaging 1 run per 8.30 plate appearances
JA Happ is a ground ball pitcher, and Porcello has an average fly/ball to GB ratio this year. With strong winds(10 to 14 mph) blowing out today, Porcello should be in slightly more danger with his pitching style.
Last 7 games, both teams are hitting like crap:
Toronto .196/.628
Boston .204/.616
Yet the Jays have and slightly better OPS
Boston vs LHS/Toronto vs RHS:
Toronto .243/.734/ #21 in sOPS+
Boston .244/.700/ #26 in sOPS+
Boston 1st 5, vs LHP, at home: .272/.744
Toronto 1st 5, vs RHP, away: .250/.751
Boston better in average, Toronto slight edge in OPS.
On Mondays:
Toronto .273/.829
Boston .247/.695
Despite the Jays travelling, it's a short ways from Baltimore to Boston. They played early yesterday, the Red Sox played the late game. I don't see any edges to either side in that regard.
As I type this the Pirates are up 3-0 on the Cubs and Jake Arrieta has just been pulled in the 3rd.
That's why I'm a mush. Best of Luck Folks