While it is always a bit risky to lock in a totals play before seeing
the batting lineups and umpire, there were two games that caught my eye
in betting the over. One is the Cubs vs Marlins over 7.5. Second one
is this Boston game. I could make the case for both, but I lean just a
bit more to Boston over, even though it is an early day start. This is a
bit of a risk as a lot of day games seem to trend towards lower scores.
Guess the hitters are still trying to wake up and/or get over the
hangover from last night.
There is also the chance that the F5 total may be more tempting
than full game, or even Boston TT over. I'm guessing F5 will be 6.5 to
7, and Boston TT will be 7 as well.
But when I look at the starting pitchers, there are the
potential for fireworks. First of all we have God's gift to overs in
James 'I really need to retire' Shields. I don't think I need to go
over how hideous he has pitched ever since the White Sox stupidly traded
for him. Just awful, horrible, horrendous. Even when Shields was
still decent, his metrics vs Boston bats was just so-so. FIP of 4.86,
BAA of .262. But I will say it again, something is *very* wrong with
Shields. He is fooling absolutely nobody out there, one can see this by
noting the ridiculous amount of runs he is giving up right away in the
1st inning, 2nd inning. Nobody is fooled. Boston bats have been in a
bit of a slump until today's mini explosion. The only current Boston
bats that have seen a lot of Shields are Ortiz, Pedroia, Ramirez. All 3
have done decent to good vs Shields, and again that was when he was
still above average. Something tells me the other 6 Red Sox hitters
will also be comfortable batting against him tomorrow morning.
Here is the surprise though, let's take a look at Boston SP Rick
Porcello. At first glance one comes off pretty impressed with this
guy. He is having a decent year, and especially so at home. Good
numbers pitching at Boston. The veneer starts to slip just a bit when
looking at his day splits. During day starts, Porcello has seen ERA,
WHIP, BAA rise by a decent margin compared to night starts. Then,
veneer slips even more when one looks at his efficiency against current
White Sox bats. Porcello has a FIP of 5.0 against them and BAA of .398.
Quite a few White Sox bats have done well against Porcello, from Melky
Cabrera, Adam Eaton, Avisail Garcia, Brett Lawrie. Abreu also has done
decent in limited at bats. Thing with Porcello is he is a lot more
effective against left handed batters than right handed. White Sox
lineup is all right handed (or switch) except for Eaton.
Plus, White Sox have to know they will need to score early and
often and knock out Porcello and get to the vulnerable Red Sox bullpen
early in order to have a chance tomorrow. Looking at the White Sox
bullpen, if recent past is any indication the White Sox will not waste
their better relievers tomorrow if they find themselves in a big
deficit. Assuming Shields gets pulled after giving up 4-6 early runs,
then it could well be a series of unproven young guys being thrown out
there to try to eat up some innings. More tinder for the fire.
Thus given it seems Boston offense could well score 10 runs
tomorrow all by themselves, the full game total of 10.5 is doable. Then
throw in a White Sox batting lineup that has a very productive history
vs Porcello and the bet looks very doable. Then throw in an iffy Boston
bullpen along with a high likelihood of White Sox using their lesser
relievers in a losing effort, the over bet looks very very doable.
Again, the biggest drawback to this bet is the fact the game starts at
10am. I do not have the hard data to back it up, but my memory tells me
early games do trend under rather than over. I am just thinking this
particular game will buck that trend.
I also like and bet the Cubs over 7.5 @Marlins. Marlin bats
have had some decent success vs Lester in the past, and Miami SP Chen is
very average himself at home. Cubs infielder Zobrist just owns Chen,
and everybody knows that Cubs batting lineup can explode for a big
offensive game any given day.
While it is always a bit risky to lock in a totals play before seeing
the batting lineups and umpire, there were two games that caught my eye
in betting the over. One is the Cubs vs Marlins over 7.5. Second one
is this Boston game. I could make the case for both, but I lean just a
bit more to Boston over, even though it is an early day start. This is a
bit of a risk as a lot of day games seem to trend towards lower scores.
Guess the hitters are still trying to wake up and/or get over the
hangover from last night.
There is also the chance that the F5 total may be more tempting
than full game, or even Boston TT over. I'm guessing F5 will be 6.5 to
7, and Boston TT will be 7 as well.
But when I look at the starting pitchers, there are the
potential for fireworks. First of all we have God's gift to overs in
James 'I really need to retire' Shields. I don't think I need to go
over how hideous he has pitched ever since the White Sox stupidly traded
for him. Just awful, horrible, horrendous. Even when Shields was
still decent, his metrics vs Boston bats was just so-so. FIP of 4.86,
BAA of .262. But I will say it again, something is *very* wrong with
Shields. He is fooling absolutely nobody out there, one can see this by
noting the ridiculous amount of runs he is giving up right away in the
1st inning, 2nd inning. Nobody is fooled. Boston bats have been in a
bit of a slump until today's mini explosion. The only current Boston
bats that have seen a lot of Shields are Ortiz, Pedroia, Ramirez. All 3
have done decent to good vs Shields, and again that was when he was
still above average. Something tells me the other 6 Red Sox hitters
will also be comfortable batting against him tomorrow morning.
Here is the surprise though, let's take a look at Boston SP Rick
Porcello. At first glance one comes off pretty impressed with this
guy. He is having a decent year, and especially so at home. Good
numbers pitching at Boston. The veneer starts to slip just a bit when
looking at his day splits. During day starts, Porcello has seen ERA,
WHIP, BAA rise by a decent margin compared to night starts. Then,
veneer slips even more when one looks at his efficiency against current
White Sox bats. Porcello has a FIP of 5.0 against them and BAA of .398.
Quite a few White Sox bats have done well against Porcello, from Melky
Cabrera, Adam Eaton, Avisail Garcia, Brett Lawrie. Abreu also has done
decent in limited at bats. Thing with Porcello is he is a lot more
effective against left handed batters than right handed. White Sox
lineup is all right handed (or switch) except for Eaton.
Plus, White Sox have to know they will need to score early and
often and knock out Porcello and get to the vulnerable Red Sox bullpen
early in order to have a chance tomorrow. Looking at the White Sox
bullpen, if recent past is any indication the White Sox will not waste
their better relievers tomorrow if they find themselves in a big
deficit. Assuming Shields gets pulled after giving up 4-6 early runs,
then it could well be a series of unproven young guys being thrown out
there to try to eat up some innings. More tinder for the fire.
Thus given it seems Boston offense could well score 10 runs
tomorrow all by themselves, the full game total of 10.5 is doable. Then
throw in a White Sox batting lineup that has a very productive history
vs Porcello and the bet looks very doable. Then throw in an iffy Boston
bullpen along with a high likelihood of White Sox using their lesser
relievers in a losing effort, the over bet looks very very doable.
Again, the biggest drawback to this bet is the fact the game starts at
10am. I do not have the hard data to back it up, but my memory tells me
early games do trend under rather than over. I am just thinking this
particular game will buck that trend.
I also like and bet the Cubs over 7.5 @Marlins. Marlin bats
have had some decent success vs Lester in the past, and Miami SP Chen is
very average himself at home. Cubs infielder Zobrist just owns Chen,
and everybody knows that Cubs batting lineup can explode for a big
offensive game any given day.
Shields was better than I thought he would be, pitched 4+ productive innings before unraveling. Tip of the cap to him, it had to be embarrassing to be on the kind of bad streak he was experiencing.
That darn total on the Miami game dropped to 7, and I tried to bet more but bet would not go through before game start. Who knows, maybe that is a sign from above (or just slow reaction time by me).
Shields was better than I thought he would be, pitched 4+ productive innings before unraveling. Tip of the cap to him, it had to be embarrassing to be on the kind of bad streak he was experiencing.
That darn total on the Miami game dropped to 7, and I tried to bet more but bet would not go through before game start. Who knows, maybe that is a sign from above (or just slow reaction time by me).
Ugly start to that Bosox game had me at the edge of my seat. Boston TT Over 5.5 Over 6 F5 Over 10.5 Game Managed to take 2 out of 3 when it looked like a disastrous card after 5.
Ugly start to that Bosox game had me at the edge of my seat. Boston TT Over 5.5 Over 6 F5 Over 10.5 Game Managed to take 2 out of 3 when it looked like a disastrous card after 5.
I have the over on the cubs/marlins as well. Thoughts on the dbacks/rockies over?
I do not have any kind of feel for this particular game to be honest. Looked into it a bit and seems current line is reasonable. Butler has bad home metrics, but Arizona has not seen much of him at all. Looking at Grienke, there are quite a few Rockies bats that hit him pretty decent. With the exception of Arenado, Raburn, and Reynolds, the other bats could well find some success. Grienke has been brilliant on the road this season though.
Both teams had to fly into Colorado from the East coast last night (Arizona all the way from Toronto), so that can sometimes lead to sluggish bats the next day. For that reason I would slightly lean towards under 11.5. But with both teams bullpens being kind of scary, again I am just avoiding picking a side on this one.
I have the over on the cubs/marlins as well. Thoughts on the dbacks/rockies over?
I do not have any kind of feel for this particular game to be honest. Looked into it a bit and seems current line is reasonable. Butler has bad home metrics, but Arizona has not seen much of him at all. Looking at Grienke, there are quite a few Rockies bats that hit him pretty decent. With the exception of Arenado, Raburn, and Reynolds, the other bats could well find some success. Grienke has been brilliant on the road this season though.
Both teams had to fly into Colorado from the East coast last night (Arizona all the way from Toronto), so that can sometimes lead to sluggish bats the next day. For that reason I would slightly lean towards under 11.5. But with both teams bullpens being kind of scary, again I am just avoiding picking a side on this one.
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