Traveling today and haven't been able to update all the pieces to my thread yet. I will update either later today when I get situated or for tomorrow's thread.
1-4 yesterday. Boo. Couple of tough beats in there. Moving on to today. https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=102121603
Wednesday's Card All plays are 1.00% of Bankroll (~$55 right now).
Picks of the Day
Tampa Bay Rays (J. Odorizzi) FG, -126
Cincinnati (Marquis) / Kansas City (Guthrie) Over 4 F5, -105 Has anyone watched Marquis pitch this year (i.e., not the box score)? I have watched 3 of his starts and he should probably hang them up. You can see flashes of someone who was once mediocre, but his days are long gone. Regardless, Marquis has given up 3+ runs F5 in 5 of his 7 starts this season. This KC lineup has also dominated righties. Likewise, Guthrie has given up 3+ runs F5 in 5 of his 7 starts (only given up fewer than 2 runs F5 once on the season). Put last night's low scoring affair behind you. The F5 line should be 5 (-125) / 5.5 (+100) runs. This gives me 1-1.5 runs at the current line.
Minnesota (Pelfrey) / Pittsburgh (Locke) Over 4 F5, -120 Regular Plays
Minnesota Twins (M. Pelfrey) FG, +144 Surprisingly, Pelfrey has been quite effective this year. He's getting those groundballs and the Twins are 5-2 in his 7 starts. Bad
news for Locke, who has given up 3+ runs in each of his last 5 starts
and has been underwhelming by any measure, is that the Twins have one of
the better vs. lefty splits vs. in MLB. Pittsburgh, on the other hand,
has struggled vs. righties.
Leans Might play one of: Angels (J. Weaver) FG, +118 Arizona (C. Anderson) FG, +128 Padres (T. Ross) FG, -133
Traveling today and haven't been able to update all the pieces to my thread yet. I will update either later today when I get situated or for tomorrow's thread.
1-4 yesterday. Boo. Couple of tough beats in there. Moving on to today. https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=102121603
Wednesday's Card All plays are 1.00% of Bankroll (~$55 right now).
Picks of the Day
Tampa Bay Rays (J. Odorizzi) FG, -126
Cincinnati (Marquis) / Kansas City (Guthrie) Over 4 F5, -105 Has anyone watched Marquis pitch this year (i.e., not the box score)? I have watched 3 of his starts and he should probably hang them up. You can see flashes of someone who was once mediocre, but his days are long gone. Regardless, Marquis has given up 3+ runs F5 in 5 of his 7 starts this season. This KC lineup has also dominated righties. Likewise, Guthrie has given up 3+ runs F5 in 5 of his 7 starts (only given up fewer than 2 runs F5 once on the season). Put last night's low scoring affair behind you. The F5 line should be 5 (-125) / 5.5 (+100) runs. This gives me 1-1.5 runs at the current line.
Minnesota (Pelfrey) / Pittsburgh (Locke) Over 4 F5, -120 Regular Plays
Minnesota Twins (M. Pelfrey) FG, +144 Surprisingly, Pelfrey has been quite effective this year. He's getting those groundballs and the Twins are 5-2 in his 7 starts. Bad
news for Locke, who has given up 3+ runs in each of his last 5 starts
and has been underwhelming by any measure, is that the Twins have one of
the better vs. lefty splits vs. in MLB. Pittsburgh, on the other hand,
has struggled vs. righties.
Leans Might play one of: Angels (J. Weaver) FG, +118 Arizona (C. Anderson) FG, +128 Padres (T. Ross) FG, -133
totally agree with you on the Royals and Reds...and want so badly to take the Twins like I did last night...but something is telling me not to pull the trigger bol
totally agree with you on the Royals and Reds...and want so badly to take the Twins like I did last night...but something is telling me not to pull the trigger bol
Minnesota Twins (M. Pelfrey) FG, +144 Surprisingly,
Pelfrey has been quite effective this year. He's getting those
groundballs and the Twins are 5-2 in his 7 starts. Bad
news for Locke, who has given up 3+ runs in each of his last 5 starts
and has been underwhelming by any measure, is that the Twins have one of
the better vs. lefty splits vs. in MLB. Pittsburgh, on the other hand,
has struggled vs. righties. _________________________ That is the good news and it gets even better. Twinkies are now 12-5 versus lefty starters and averaging a whopping 8.4 earned offensive runs per 9 innings. They just blew Liriano off the hill last night with 7 earned runs in 2+ innings, far and away his worst start of the year. Versus a stiff like Locke it looks like "the lock of the century", BUT: Apparently 60% of the bettors know that and are all over the Twinks. The problem there is that the line, which should be dropping like a bowling ball off a 10 story building is not going anywhere. The Twins are as high now, higher at some books, than they opened at. Either some deep pocket bettors have nailed the Pirates or the books fear they will if the number is lowered. Speaking of unsustainable numbers, as I diid in my thread yesterday, is not the Twins 70.6% win rate versus lefty starters probably unsustainable? I am going to hold back on this one until I know why the line is not dropping. Best of luck and I do agree the Twins are the right side, but don't ever think line makers are stupid people. They prove otherwise every day and have 10X as much info as I just posted. BOL
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
Minnesota Twins (M. Pelfrey) FG, +144 Surprisingly,
Pelfrey has been quite effective this year. He's getting those
groundballs and the Twins are 5-2 in his 7 starts. Bad
news for Locke, who has given up 3+ runs in each of his last 5 starts
and has been underwhelming by any measure, is that the Twins have one of
the better vs. lefty splits vs. in MLB. Pittsburgh, on the other hand,
has struggled vs. righties. _________________________ That is the good news and it gets even better. Twinkies are now 12-5 versus lefty starters and averaging a whopping 8.4 earned offensive runs per 9 innings. They just blew Liriano off the hill last night with 7 earned runs in 2+ innings, far and away his worst start of the year. Versus a stiff like Locke it looks like "the lock of the century", BUT: Apparently 60% of the bettors know that and are all over the Twinks. The problem there is that the line, which should be dropping like a bowling ball off a 10 story building is not going anywhere. The Twins are as high now, higher at some books, than they opened at. Either some deep pocket bettors have nailed the Pirates or the books fear they will if the number is lowered. Speaking of unsustainable numbers, as I diid in my thread yesterday, is not the Twins 70.6% win rate versus lefty starters probably unsustainable? I am going to hold back on this one until I know why the line is not dropping. Best of luck and I do agree the Twins are the right side, but don't ever think line makers are stupid people. They prove otherwise every day and have 10X as much info as I just posted. BOL
Minnesota Twins (M. Pelfrey) FG, +144 Surprisingly,
Pelfrey has been quite effective this year. He's getting those
groundballs and the Twins are 5-2 in his 7 starts. Bad
news for Locke, who has given up 3+ runs in each of his last 5 starts
and has been underwhelming by any measure, is that the Twins have one of
the better vs. lefty splits vs. in MLB. Pittsburgh, on the other hand,
has struggled vs. righties. _________________________ That is the good news and it gets even better. Twinkies are now 12-5 versus lefty starters and averaging a whopping 8.4 earned offensive runs per 9 innings. They just blew Liriano off the hill last night with 7 earned runs in 2+ innings, far and away his worst start of the year. Versus a stiff like Locke it looks like "the lock of the century", BUT: Apparently 60% of the bettors know that and are all over the Twinks. The problem there is that the line, which should be dropping like a bowling ball off a 10 story building is not going anywhere. The Twins are as high now, higher at some books, than they opened at. Either some deep pocket bettors have nailed the Pirates or the books fear they will if the number is lowered. Speaking of unsustainable numbers, as I diid in my thread yesterday, is not the Twins 70.6% win rate versus lefty starters probably unsustainable? I am going to hold back on this one until I know why the line is not dropping. Best of luck and I do agree the Twins are the right side, but don't ever think line makers are stupid people. They prove otherwise every day and have 10X as much info as I just posted. BOL
Minnesota Twins (M. Pelfrey) FG, +144 Surprisingly,
Pelfrey has been quite effective this year. He's getting those
groundballs and the Twins are 5-2 in his 7 starts. Bad
news for Locke, who has given up 3+ runs in each of his last 5 starts
and has been underwhelming by any measure, is that the Twins have one of
the better vs. lefty splits vs. in MLB. Pittsburgh, on the other hand,
has struggled vs. righties. _________________________ That is the good news and it gets even better. Twinkies are now 12-5 versus lefty starters and averaging a whopping 8.4 earned offensive runs per 9 innings. They just blew Liriano off the hill last night with 7 earned runs in 2+ innings, far and away his worst start of the year. Versus a stiff like Locke it looks like "the lock of the century", BUT: Apparently 60% of the bettors know that and are all over the Twinks. The problem there is that the line, which should be dropping like a bowling ball off a 10 story building is not going anywhere. The Twins are as high now, higher at some books, than they opened at. Either some deep pocket bettors have nailed the Pirates or the books fear they will if the number is lowered. Speaking of unsustainable numbers, as I diid in my thread yesterday, is not the Twins 70.6% win rate versus lefty starters probably unsustainable? I am going to hold back on this one until I know why the line is not dropping. Best of luck and I do agree the Twins are the right side, but don't ever think line makers are stupid people. They prove otherwise every day and have 10X as much info as I just posted. BOL
Is this a serious question? I logged into my online books, glanced over some of the leans I had earlier in the day, and then placed the bet (on STL) on my 5dimes account.
Is this a serious question? I logged into my online books, glanced over some of the leans I had earlier in the day, and then placed the bet (on STL) on my 5dimes account.
Minnesota Twins (M. Pelfrey) FG, +144 Surprisingly,
Pelfrey has been quite effective this year. He's getting those
groundballs and the Twins are 5-2 in his 7 starts. Bad
news for Locke, who has given up 3+ runs in each of his last 5 starts
and has been underwhelming by any measure, is that the Twins have one of
the better vs. lefty splits vs. in MLB. Pittsburgh, on the other hand,
has struggled vs. righties. _________________________ That is the good news and it gets even better. Twinkies are now 12-5 versus lefty starters and averaging a whopping 8.4 earned offensive runs per 9 innings. They just blew Liriano off the hill last night with 7 earned runs in 2+ innings, far and away his worst start of the year. Versus a stiff like Locke it looks like "the lock of the century", BUT: Apparently 60% of the bettors know that and are all over the Twinks. The problem there is that the line, which should be dropping like a bowling ball off a 10 story building is not going anywhere. The Twins are as high now, higher at some books, than they opened at. Either some deep pocket bettors have nailed the Pirates or the books fear they will if the number is lowered. Speaking of unsustainable numbers, as I diid in my thread yesterday, is not the Twins 70.6% win rate versus lefty starters probably unsustainable? I am going to hold back on this one until I know why the line is not dropping. Best of luck and I do agree the Twins are the right side, but don't ever think line makers are stupid people. They prove otherwise every day and have 10X as much info as I just posted. BOL
Yeah, the lack of line movement despite a heavy public backing had me scratching my head a bit.
However, I placed the wager last night shortly after lines were posted so I didn't have the luxury of knowing how many people saw what i saw in the line. I actually like the over better than the side, but I couldn't resist taking a shot at it when I saw it.
Minnesota Twins (M. Pelfrey) FG, +144 Surprisingly,
Pelfrey has been quite effective this year. He's getting those
groundballs and the Twins are 5-2 in his 7 starts. Bad
news for Locke, who has given up 3+ runs in each of his last 5 starts
and has been underwhelming by any measure, is that the Twins have one of
the better vs. lefty splits vs. in MLB. Pittsburgh, on the other hand,
has struggled vs. righties. _________________________ That is the good news and it gets even better. Twinkies are now 12-5 versus lefty starters and averaging a whopping 8.4 earned offensive runs per 9 innings. They just blew Liriano off the hill last night with 7 earned runs in 2+ innings, far and away his worst start of the year. Versus a stiff like Locke it looks like "the lock of the century", BUT: Apparently 60% of the bettors know that and are all over the Twinks. The problem there is that the line, which should be dropping like a bowling ball off a 10 story building is not going anywhere. The Twins are as high now, higher at some books, than they opened at. Either some deep pocket bettors have nailed the Pirates or the books fear they will if the number is lowered. Speaking of unsustainable numbers, as I diid in my thread yesterday, is not the Twins 70.6% win rate versus lefty starters probably unsustainable? I am going to hold back on this one until I know why the line is not dropping. Best of luck and I do agree the Twins are the right side, but don't ever think line makers are stupid people. They prove otherwise every day and have 10X as much info as I just posted. BOL
Yeah, the lack of line movement despite a heavy public backing had me scratching my head a bit.
However, I placed the wager last night shortly after lines were posted so I didn't have the luxury of knowing how many people saw what i saw in the line. I actually like the over better than the side, but I couldn't resist taking a shot at it when I saw it.
Is this a serious question? I logged into my online books, glanced over some of the leans I had earlier in the day, and then placed the bet (on STL) on my 5dimes account.
he's asking that question because 5dimes currently has the cardinals at -130
Is this a serious question? I logged into my online books, glanced over some of the leans I had earlier in the day, and then placed the bet (on STL) on my 5dimes account.
he's asking that question because 5dimes currently has the cardinals at -130
I see why you're asking that question now. I placed the bet at 6:09PM EST. The line was between +100 and -105 all day. Not sure when the line moved 20pts (and didn't see it until I went back to check on the Angels line again just now).
I don't know what to tell you other than I have no reason to BS. You're going to have to take my word for it or you can PM me and I can figure out a way to show you a screen shot if it's that important to you. After I pick plays, it's not always my first thought to immediately jump into my covers thread. I post plays w/ lines and where I placed them (e.g., 5dimes, bovada, etc.) on a daily basis.
That said, I do not find the Cardinals as attractive above -120.
I see why you're asking that question now. I placed the bet at 6:09PM EST. The line was between +100 and -105 all day. Not sure when the line moved 20pts (and didn't see it until I went back to check on the Angels line again just now).
I don't know what to tell you other than I have no reason to BS. You're going to have to take my word for it or you can PM me and I can figure out a way to show you a screen shot if it's that important to you. After I pick plays, it's not always my first thought to immediately jump into my covers thread. I post plays w/ lines and where I placed them (e.g., 5dimes, bovada, etc.) on a daily basis.
That said, I do not find the Cardinals as attractive above -120.
Love how the Twins scored 3 runs without recording their 2nd out of the game… and have managed to score 0 runs over the course of their next 35 outs.
This would be a smaller pill to swallow had they either (i) let the Pirates score the extra run during F5 or (ii) not blown the lead late in the game. Boooooo. There is still hope I guess, as the fat lady hasn't sung yet.
tomorrow:
954 New York Mets (J. deGrom) FG, -110 --- Risk 1.00% of Bankroll (5dimes)
966 Detroit Tigers (D. Price) -1 RL, -113 --- Risk 1.00% of Bankroll (5dimes)
Love how the Twins scored 3 runs without recording their 2nd out of the game… and have managed to score 0 runs over the course of their next 35 outs.
This would be a smaller pill to swallow had they either (i) let the Pirates score the extra run during F5 or (ii) not blown the lead late in the game. Boooooo. There is still hope I guess, as the fat lady hasn't sung yet.
tomorrow:
954 New York Mets (J. deGrom) FG, -110 --- Risk 1.00% of Bankroll (5dimes)
966 Detroit Tigers (D. Price) -1 RL, -113 --- Risk 1.00% of Bankroll (5dimes)
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