Let's look at some numbers:
Clev Bauer P3
135 Det Simon 14
Det opens as a 135 fav (donbest.com), currently around 115-120. Bauer has a rating of P3 (based on a formula I use to rank pitchers) and Simon 14. A pitcher with a P rating indicates to me that he has more strikeouts than innings pitched - which is a great sign for the strength of a pitcher. Clearly on paper Bauer is a lot better than Simon. However, when you look at history and you have pitchers with the similar ratings and an opening line of 135 - the home team has shown to win these games. Going with history and taking Det. Good luck all.