Picks of the Day Record YTD: 17-8-1 (68%) *** +34.71% Return on Risk *** ML: 5-1 (83%) F5: 5-2-0 (71%) RL: 1-2 (33%) O/U: 6-3-1 (67%)
Yesterday's Results, 7/22/2014 Record: 3-6-1 (33%) Risked / To Win: 10.00 Units / 8.64 Units (avg. line of -116) Profit: -2.99 Units / -$58.17 Return on Risk: -29.90% https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=101920462
Bet Sizing: 1 Unit is 1% of my bankroll (~$22 as of today). Admittedly, I place relatively small wagers in comparison to other bettors on individual plays. But, to put things into perspective, if you were a dime bettor and followed all of my plays you would be up $61,793 on the season based on my return on risk performance.
Number of plays: I have received some feedback regarding the amount of action (plays) I have each day. I often elect to spread my risk out by selecting wagers that express the same view. So, while the number of bets might seem high, 2-3 plays on the same game can often be consolidated into 1 play with more concentrated risk. For example, sometimes I split my risk between the first 5 innings and the full game while also placing a wager on the run total.
Diversification/Money Management: Remember, you can express a view in a number of ways and it's about finding the cheapest way with the best risk/reward profile. Don't fall into the trap of putting too much risk in one place. You (and I) will lose "sure thing" wagers, so limiting the damage from one pick is imperative. If there is one takeaway this is it. Diversification is key to money management. There's a reason why I have placed 1,000+ wagers this season and still have my original bankroll (and some profit) to play with in the second half! As the season goes on, I will begin wagering plays with higher payouts but only with a portion of my profit.
Picks of the Day (POD) / Regular Play (RP): Going forward I will color code my plays to differentiate between my favorite plays (orange) and my regular value plays (blue). I won't necessarily size any differently. A few people approached me and asked me to do this, so I am going to try it out for the second half of the season. Maybe I will discover something that I can incorporate for the next season.
Picks of the Day Record YTD: 17-8-1 (68%) *** +34.71% Return on Risk *** ML: 5-1 (83%) F5: 5-2-0 (71%) RL: 1-2 (33%) O/U: 6-3-1 (67%)
Yesterday's Results, 7/22/2014 Record: 3-6-1 (33%) Risked / To Win: 10.00 Units / 8.64 Units (avg. line of -116) Profit: -2.99 Units / -$58.17 Return on Risk: -29.90% https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=101920462
Bet Sizing: 1 Unit is 1% of my bankroll (~$22 as of today). Admittedly, I place relatively small wagers in comparison to other bettors on individual plays. But, to put things into perspective, if you were a dime bettor and followed all of my plays you would be up $61,793 on the season based on my return on risk performance.
Number of plays: I have received some feedback regarding the amount of action (plays) I have each day. I often elect to spread my risk out by selecting wagers that express the same view. So, while the number of bets might seem high, 2-3 plays on the same game can often be consolidated into 1 play with more concentrated risk. For example, sometimes I split my risk between the first 5 innings and the full game while also placing a wager on the run total.
Diversification/Money Management: Remember, you can express a view in a number of ways and it's about finding the cheapest way with the best risk/reward profile. Don't fall into the trap of putting too much risk in one place. You (and I) will lose "sure thing" wagers, so limiting the damage from one pick is imperative. If there is one takeaway this is it. Diversification is key to money management. There's a reason why I have placed 1,000+ wagers this season and still have my original bankroll (and some profit) to play with in the second half! As the season goes on, I will begin wagering plays with higher payouts but only with a portion of my profit.
Picks of the Day (POD) / Regular Play (RP): Going forward I will color code my plays to differentiate between my favorite plays (orange) and my regular value plays (blue). I won't necessarily size any differently. A few people approached me and asked me to do this, so I am going to try it out for the second half of the season. Maybe I will discover something that I can incorporate for the next season.
Yesterday
was a frustrating day to say the least. So close to being a very good
day, but ended up being a bad day. I don't hide from losses and actually
try to learn from them (if there is something to be learned). Quick overview of the losses:
Tampa/St. Louis Under 4 F5 & St. Louis F5 (POD):
the score was 1-1 going into the 5th, and then Wainwright loses it and
give up 5 runs on 2 hits. I mean, really?!?! That inning lost both F5
bets for me. Detroit Tigers ML (POD): Tigers have a 4-3 lead
going into the bottom of the 8th and the Tigers bullpen did what it does
best... gave up 2 runs on 1 hit that - of course - came with 2 outs.
Walks are a killer. I might put more weight on F5 for the Tigers going
forward. Houston/Oakland Over 3.5 F5: had plenty of opportunities to plate that last run, but neither team took advantage of the plethora of scoring opportunities. Los Angeles Dodgers ML:
My goodness, what a rollercoaster! The LA offense did all it could to
keep them in the game, but Chris Perez managed to single handed pulling
the chord on a comeback by walking 4 straight in the 8th. I would have
never thought that 7 runs wouldn't have been sufficient to win that game.
I
feel my reasoning was sound and I am not discouraged by the result; I
would put these same bets on today. Baseball really has a way of teasing
you and slapping you in the face sometimes. But, you can't let
yesterday make you timid today. Stick to the game-plan and look for good
games.
No write-ups on the side plays yet. I will likely post some rationale on my side bets later this afternoon. I wanted to get this out now, since I am playing an early afternoon game.
Sides
Cleveland Indians ML (-126) --- 1.50 Units / 1.50% of Bankroll
Texas Rangers F5 (-114) --- 1.50 Units / 1.50% of Bankroll
San Francisco Giants F5 (-135) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll
Detroit Tigers F5 (-140) --- 1.50 Units / 1.50% of Bankroll
Totals
Los Angeles/Pittsburgh Over 3.5 F5 (-125) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll We
will center this one around Dan Haren. Over his last 15 starts, how
many times has he given up fewer than 2 runs in F5? ONCE! Haren has been flat out awful and has given up 2+/3+ runs in 14/11 of his last 15 (93%/73%) starts in the first 5 innings. Basically, we stand a good chance of hitting the over before the Dodgers even hit.
The
Dodgers are pitiful this season versus lefties and Liriano has already
shut them down once. However, Liriano's control has been awful this year
(45 BBs in 81 innings) and he has only shutout his opponent in F5 twice
in 16 starts. It's more likely than not that the Dodgers score at least
1 run.
Some books are offering the Over on 4 at +100. I like this line as well. However, these lines will not hold. Not a chance.
Miami/Atlanta Over 3.5 F5 (-115) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll Yep,
we played this one last night and I am going for it again. Santana has
given up 2+/3+ runs in 9/6 of his last 15 (60%/40%) starts in the first 5
innings, while Eovaldi has given up 2+/3+ runs in 8/6 of his last 15
(53%/40%) starts in the first 5 innings. According to my calculations, I
would expect this over to hit about 60% of the time (i.e., a fair value
line of approximately -150). There is significant value in this line
and I don't expect this one to hold either. The Over 4 should be closer to -115, in my opinion.
San Francisco/Philadelphia Under 8 (-125) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll
Texas/New York Under 7.5 (-110) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll
Yesterday
was a frustrating day to say the least. So close to being a very good
day, but ended up being a bad day. I don't hide from losses and actually
try to learn from them (if there is something to be learned). Quick overview of the losses:
Tampa/St. Louis Under 4 F5 & St. Louis F5 (POD):
the score was 1-1 going into the 5th, and then Wainwright loses it and
give up 5 runs on 2 hits. I mean, really?!?! That inning lost both F5
bets for me. Detroit Tigers ML (POD): Tigers have a 4-3 lead
going into the bottom of the 8th and the Tigers bullpen did what it does
best... gave up 2 runs on 1 hit that - of course - came with 2 outs.
Walks are a killer. I might put more weight on F5 for the Tigers going
forward. Houston/Oakland Over 3.5 F5: had plenty of opportunities to plate that last run, but neither team took advantage of the plethora of scoring opportunities. Los Angeles Dodgers ML:
My goodness, what a rollercoaster! The LA offense did all it could to
keep them in the game, but Chris Perez managed to single handed pulling
the chord on a comeback by walking 4 straight in the 8th. I would have
never thought that 7 runs wouldn't have been sufficient to win that game.
I
feel my reasoning was sound and I am not discouraged by the result; I
would put these same bets on today. Baseball really has a way of teasing
you and slapping you in the face sometimes. But, you can't let
yesterday make you timid today. Stick to the game-plan and look for good
games.
No write-ups on the side plays yet. I will likely post some rationale on my side bets later this afternoon. I wanted to get this out now, since I am playing an early afternoon game.
Sides
Cleveland Indians ML (-126) --- 1.50 Units / 1.50% of Bankroll
Texas Rangers F5 (-114) --- 1.50 Units / 1.50% of Bankroll
San Francisco Giants F5 (-135) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll
Detroit Tigers F5 (-140) --- 1.50 Units / 1.50% of Bankroll
Totals
Los Angeles/Pittsburgh Over 3.5 F5 (-125) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll We
will center this one around Dan Haren. Over his last 15 starts, how
many times has he given up fewer than 2 runs in F5? ONCE! Haren has been flat out awful and has given up 2+/3+ runs in 14/11 of his last 15 (93%/73%) starts in the first 5 innings. Basically, we stand a good chance of hitting the over before the Dodgers even hit.
The
Dodgers are pitiful this season versus lefties and Liriano has already
shut them down once. However, Liriano's control has been awful this year
(45 BBs in 81 innings) and he has only shutout his opponent in F5 twice
in 16 starts. It's more likely than not that the Dodgers score at least
1 run.
Some books are offering the Over on 4 at +100. I like this line as well. However, these lines will not hold. Not a chance.
Miami/Atlanta Over 3.5 F5 (-115) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll Yep,
we played this one last night and I am going for it again. Santana has
given up 2+/3+ runs in 9/6 of his last 15 (60%/40%) starts in the first 5
innings, while Eovaldi has given up 2+/3+ runs in 8/6 of his last 15
(53%/40%) starts in the first 5 innings. According to my calculations, I
would expect this over to hit about 60% of the time (i.e., a fair value
line of approximately -150). There is significant value in this line
and I don't expect this one to hold either. The Over 4 should be closer to -115, in my opinion.
San Francisco/Philadelphia Under 8 (-125) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll
Texas/New York Under 7.5 (-110) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll
As I said above (money management section), I will be putting some of my winnings from earlier in the season to work in higher payout plays from time to time. Today, I am going to wager 1.50% of my bankroll on two dogs who I feel offer value. I am more than happy to discuss my rationale on the dog picks, so feel free to fire away.
Miami Marlins F5 (+156) --- 0.75 Units / 0.75% of Bankroll Eovaldi has been surprisingly better on the road than at home these last two years posting ERAs of 2.80 and 3.11 in 2013 (9 starts) and 2014 (9 starts), respectively. The Braves don't hit righties well (26th in MLB in OPS) and are sending a rather mediocre pitcher in Santana to the mound. In 3 starts vs. Atlanta this season, Eovaldi has a 1.29 ERA over 21 innings of work. The first 5 innings of this game is much closer to a coin flip, and I feel an argument could be made that Eovaldi and the Marlins should be the favorite for F5.
Baltimore Orioles ML (+158) --- 0.75 Units / 0.75% of Bankroll I was originally looking at the under in this game, but ultimately decided the ML offered too much value to pass on. That said, I still think the under on 8.5 (-115) looks good.
I recognize that Weaver has been nothing short of spectacular at home the last 4 years, going 31-11 with a low-2s ERA, but the Orioles have a stacked lineup that has been one of the best road hitting teams in baseball and hit righties very well.
Chris Tillman is probably happy he is creating more distance between May and today. After an absolutely horrid May, where he posted a 5.68 ERA, Tillman seems to have returned to form. Over his last 8 starts, he has posted a 2.50 ERA / 1.17 WHIP line. Moreover, the Orioles are 9-3 in Tillman's 12 road starts.
Lastly, the Angels' offense seems to have hit a bit of a rough patch, only scoring 15 runs over their last 5 games (at home) since the all-star break. The Orioles have scored 22 runs over the same 5 game span (on the road) vs. two playoff contending teams. This presents itself has a great opportunity to hopefully monetize a line that should be much closer to +120.
As I said above (money management section), I will be putting some of my winnings from earlier in the season to work in higher payout plays from time to time. Today, I am going to wager 1.50% of my bankroll on two dogs who I feel offer value. I am more than happy to discuss my rationale on the dog picks, so feel free to fire away.
Miami Marlins F5 (+156) --- 0.75 Units / 0.75% of Bankroll Eovaldi has been surprisingly better on the road than at home these last two years posting ERAs of 2.80 and 3.11 in 2013 (9 starts) and 2014 (9 starts), respectively. The Braves don't hit righties well (26th in MLB in OPS) and are sending a rather mediocre pitcher in Santana to the mound. In 3 starts vs. Atlanta this season, Eovaldi has a 1.29 ERA over 21 innings of work. The first 5 innings of this game is much closer to a coin flip, and I feel an argument could be made that Eovaldi and the Marlins should be the favorite for F5.
Baltimore Orioles ML (+158) --- 0.75 Units / 0.75% of Bankroll I was originally looking at the under in this game, but ultimately decided the ML offered too much value to pass on. That said, I still think the under on 8.5 (-115) looks good.
I recognize that Weaver has been nothing short of spectacular at home the last 4 years, going 31-11 with a low-2s ERA, but the Orioles have a stacked lineup that has been one of the best road hitting teams in baseball and hit righties very well.
Chris Tillman is probably happy he is creating more distance between May and today. After an absolutely horrid May, where he posted a 5.68 ERA, Tillman seems to have returned to form. Over his last 8 starts, he has posted a 2.50 ERA / 1.17 WHIP line. Moreover, the Orioles are 9-3 in Tillman's 12 road starts.
Lastly, the Angels' offense seems to have hit a bit of a rough patch, only scoring 15 runs over their last 5 games (at home) since the all-star break. The Orioles have scored 22 runs over the same 5 game span (on the road) vs. two playoff contending teams. This presents itself has a great opportunity to hopefully monetize a line that should be much closer to +120.
Tillman is one of the strongest pitchers in the game and he's had ample rest and he comes into the game as a complete contrast to Gonzalez. The Orioles are a strong contender. Do not underestimate how their fielding contributes to the run totals. On their side they rely on the 3 run homer to win, which has been the mantra in the organization forver, but hitting home runs in California at night is hard. That being said, they have still managed to take 2 of 3 with solid pitching a couple dingers, and great D. Results of first two games not a fluke. That is all I will say
Tillman is one of the strongest pitchers in the game and he's had ample rest and he comes into the game as a complete contrast to Gonzalez. The Orioles are a strong contender. Do not underestimate how their fielding contributes to the run totals. On their side they rely on the 3 run homer to win, which has been the mantra in the organization forver, but hitting home runs in California at night is hard. That being said, they have still managed to take 2 of 3 with solid pitching a couple dingers, and great D. Results of first two games not a fluke. That is all I will say
I really lucked out on the Rangers/Yankees game. My F5 wager was cancelled, since the game didn't go a full 5 innings. So, despite the Rangers being down 2-1 going in the bottom of the 5th, I received a refund. Phew! Unfortunately, that means my under on the FG was also cancelled. This guarantees a positive day though, and if the Orioles win this could very well wind up being a good day.
I really lucked out on the Rangers/Yankees game. My F5 wager was cancelled, since the game didn't go a full 5 innings. So, despite the Rangers being down 2-1 going in the bottom of the 5th, I received a refund. Phew! Unfortunately, that means my under on the FG was also cancelled. This guarantees a positive day though, and if the Orioles win this could very well wind up being a good day.
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