Been hovering just below these numbers all season until a two day stretch where I went 7-21 (33%) to drop me back to just over 55% and just below 6% ROI. To keep my eye on the prize, I will be posting my picks and discussing my logic for exactly one week.
I believe in diversification so I bet lots of games, varying the units between 1% of BR and 6%. Therefore, each unit is 1% of BR.
This line may seem high but I'm going with it because I still think the O's are under-rated. Although Greene pitched pretty well in his debut, he's going against the team with the highest BA in the majors in a hitter friendly park on the road. Tillman is a bit of enigma. He's very strong but his mechanics are lousy, just watching him pitch hurts my arm, and he shut out the yanks over 8 innings the last time he faced them, but he's also gone 7+ innings in 4 of his last 5 starts and I just don't think he can hold it together for that long with his herky jerky motion to the plate. If the yanks score 3 runs, the over is in play.
Chicago/Atlanta over 8.5 1u over 27.5 RHE -110 Atlanta -120 1u
Not sure where the value is in the game line but I will take my chances on the better fielding team and the lefty-lefty matchup on the cubs best hitter. I expect a lot of contact today by the hitters and the cubs poor fielding will help the RHE, so that's why I'm splitting the over wager between the 2. Weather looks conducive to balls going out and neither pitcher can get it past the free-swinging hitters. If the K total is low for both pitchers there will be a lot of action on the base paths and chances of a few or more crossing the plate seem high to me and well worth the over sweat.
Arizona +113 2u over 7
I'm going to go with the better pitcher here, and yes, Miley is a better pitcher . Vog is flattered by two straight years of unexpected success but his numbers have regressed and he isn't getting any younger. The total is an auto play for me since it's a day game in SF.
Miami f5 +105 2u Miami TTo 3.5 -120 4u
Dice-K may look at first glance like the original incarnation but look a little closer and you may find it's time to fade him. Opps are batting just .200 against him this year but he's walked 40 batters in just 65 innings, he's thrown a lot of stress pitches over the last few games, and you have to question his stamina after only 25 starts over the previous 3 years. He always throws high in the zone anyway so if he's off in velocity it could be a long day. The team total seems like great value since they will definitely get 9 frames to score it. Lets not forget that despite recent struggles, Miami has a respectable OBP and is 4th in the NL in that category.
STL/Mil under 7.5 1u
I don't know who this Mil pitcher is but neither does STL, a team that has little depth and looks beat up and tired to me. They scored plenty of runs yesterday but they match up well vs Gallardo, so I'm throwing that result out. The league seems to have figured out how to get the Brewers out, where there weaknesses are, not that Wainright needed it.
TB f5 -0.5 even 1u TB f5 -135 2u
Enough is enough. How can Toronto keep losing bats and still keep scoring? Odorizzi has wicked stuff for 5 innings, but can't go longer. I'm not touching him for the FG but his K rate in the first 4 innings is well over 9. Definitely a candidate for short relief when TB gets healthy again. This is a tough park to hit homers in since it's indoor with AC and the fences are far away from the plate, toronto is reliant on the long ball for scoring, don't see the jays scoring much early. If I get 2 runs from the rays I think I'm in good shape.
Boston -115 under 8.5
The question is if Peavy's pitching numbers this year are an abberration or the new norm, and if the Bosox hitting woes are an aberration or the new norm. It's usually the former and worth a unit on each.
Colorado -1.5 +120 1u
still terrific value on this. I love it when the markets misadjust to new information. The return of everyone but Cuddyer to the lineup paid off dividends in the first game, Colorado has a huge edge at home vs at team that doesn't play there and that advantage should hold today. Better team at home wins convincingly today, worth the unit anyway.
Cleveland/Chisox u9
I don't need to even know who is pitching to take this. Cleveland is a hard place to hit during the day, I don't see these teams as being that great at hitting. Taking this as late as I can because I expect reverse levelling from the public and action on the over.
Been hovering just below these numbers all season until a two day stretch where I went 7-21 (33%) to drop me back to just over 55% and just below 6% ROI. To keep my eye on the prize, I will be posting my picks and discussing my logic for exactly one week.
I believe in diversification so I bet lots of games, varying the units between 1% of BR and 6%. Therefore, each unit is 1% of BR.
This line may seem high but I'm going with it because I still think the O's are under-rated. Although Greene pitched pretty well in his debut, he's going against the team with the highest BA in the majors in a hitter friendly park on the road. Tillman is a bit of enigma. He's very strong but his mechanics are lousy, just watching him pitch hurts my arm, and he shut out the yanks over 8 innings the last time he faced them, but he's also gone 7+ innings in 4 of his last 5 starts and I just don't think he can hold it together for that long with his herky jerky motion to the plate. If the yanks score 3 runs, the over is in play.
Chicago/Atlanta over 8.5 1u over 27.5 RHE -110 Atlanta -120 1u
Not sure where the value is in the game line but I will take my chances on the better fielding team and the lefty-lefty matchup on the cubs best hitter. I expect a lot of contact today by the hitters and the cubs poor fielding will help the RHE, so that's why I'm splitting the over wager between the 2. Weather looks conducive to balls going out and neither pitcher can get it past the free-swinging hitters. If the K total is low for both pitchers there will be a lot of action on the base paths and chances of a few or more crossing the plate seem high to me and well worth the over sweat.
Arizona +113 2u over 7
I'm going to go with the better pitcher here, and yes, Miley is a better pitcher . Vog is flattered by two straight years of unexpected success but his numbers have regressed and he isn't getting any younger. The total is an auto play for me since it's a day game in SF.
Miami f5 +105 2u Miami TTo 3.5 -120 4u
Dice-K may look at first glance like the original incarnation but look a little closer and you may find it's time to fade him. Opps are batting just .200 against him this year but he's walked 40 batters in just 65 innings, he's thrown a lot of stress pitches over the last few games, and you have to question his stamina after only 25 starts over the previous 3 years. He always throws high in the zone anyway so if he's off in velocity it could be a long day. The team total seems like great value since they will definitely get 9 frames to score it. Lets not forget that despite recent struggles, Miami has a respectable OBP and is 4th in the NL in that category.
STL/Mil under 7.5 1u
I don't know who this Mil pitcher is but neither does STL, a team that has little depth and looks beat up and tired to me. They scored plenty of runs yesterday but they match up well vs Gallardo, so I'm throwing that result out. The league seems to have figured out how to get the Brewers out, where there weaknesses are, not that Wainright needed it.
TB f5 -0.5 even 1u TB f5 -135 2u
Enough is enough. How can Toronto keep losing bats and still keep scoring? Odorizzi has wicked stuff for 5 innings, but can't go longer. I'm not touching him for the FG but his K rate in the first 4 innings is well over 9. Definitely a candidate for short relief when TB gets healthy again. This is a tough park to hit homers in since it's indoor with AC and the fences are far away from the plate, toronto is reliant on the long ball for scoring, don't see the jays scoring much early. If I get 2 runs from the rays I think I'm in good shape.
Boston -115 under 8.5
The question is if Peavy's pitching numbers this year are an abberration or the new norm, and if the Bosox hitting woes are an aberration or the new norm. It's usually the former and worth a unit on each.
Colorado -1.5 +120 1u
still terrific value on this. I love it when the markets misadjust to new information. The return of everyone but Cuddyer to the lineup paid off dividends in the first game, Colorado has a huge edge at home vs at team that doesn't play there and that advantage should hold today. Better team at home wins convincingly today, worth the unit anyway.
Cleveland/Chisox u9
I don't need to even know who is pitching to take this. Cleveland is a hard place to hit during the day, I don't see these teams as being that great at hitting. Taking this as late as I can because I expect reverse levelling from the public and action on the over.
BTW, bankroll starts at $5K, each unit is $50. I currently have $1175 invested representing over 20% of my BR. That is mostly because I had to buy more of TB at the lower number but I usually have upwards of 20% in play during a set of games.
Most of the games won't end before the others start but I'll have a good idea what to do for the early night games. Bet sizing will be adjusted but 20% of my roll in play at any given time is std. If I lose my units for tonight will decrease or increase if i win
BTW, bankroll starts at $5K, each unit is $50. I currently have $1175 invested representing over 20% of my BR. That is mostly because I had to buy more of TB at the lower number but I usually have upwards of 20% in play during a set of games.
Most of the games won't end before the others start but I'll have a good idea what to do for the early night games. Bet sizing will be adjusted but 20% of my roll in play at any given time is std. If I lose my units for tonight will decrease or increase if i win
Ok looks like I made a terrible call on the orioles today. Maybe it's best to stay away from your favorite team. I'm still putting Greene on my fade list. Third MLB start is always a girl.
That being said I won't be in too bad shape regardless of that outcome because I won my 4 unit play on Miami TTo. Too bad the Mets got 2 runs to spoil first 5
Since it appears I'm going to about breakeven wagers will stay at $50, will recalculate BR and sizing for tomorrow
Kicking myself for not anticipating the line move in Tampa, almost certainly would have taken TB FG for all 5 units
Pitt -105 2u
I just like taking Pitt here because their OBA and performance haven't matched and it should be only a matter of time before they put together a run. Had them last night too for one unit so call the 2u play a chase
Phi +122/u7 -125 parlay 1u
I know I'm way late to the party on all this philly magic but I might as well get in because Stras is the most overvalued pitcher in baseball. Yes he does win but the times I've played against him he's paid off big and a plus number for hamels at home is all I need to know. Correlated to the under because I expect only 4 runs tops off Nat pitching even in that stadium.
KC -127 u8 even
I know this is the sexy play and the public is overbetting KC due to the avoid the sweep logic, which I don't really buy into, but I've already committed to fading Porcello and backing Sheilds regardless. Always been a huge fan of Shields and never like Porcello. KC has to play it low scoring with their troubles getting on base so I'll take the even money there in a partially correlated bet.
LAA -1.5 -110 1u over 9.5 1u
why not?
SD -102 1u o7.5 +110
Maholm doesn't belong on the mound regardless of how much rest he's on. I'll take my chances on 2 very nice numbers.
Ok looks like I made a terrible call on the orioles today. Maybe it's best to stay away from your favorite team. I'm still putting Greene on my fade list. Third MLB start is always a girl.
That being said I won't be in too bad shape regardless of that outcome because I won my 4 unit play on Miami TTo. Too bad the Mets got 2 runs to spoil first 5
Since it appears I'm going to about breakeven wagers will stay at $50, will recalculate BR and sizing for tomorrow
Kicking myself for not anticipating the line move in Tampa, almost certainly would have taken TB FG for all 5 units
Pitt -105 2u
I just like taking Pitt here because their OBA and performance haven't matched and it should be only a matter of time before they put together a run. Had them last night too for one unit so call the 2u play a chase
Phi +122/u7 -125 parlay 1u
I know I'm way late to the party on all this philly magic but I might as well get in because Stras is the most overvalued pitcher in baseball. Yes he does win but the times I've played against him he's paid off big and a plus number for hamels at home is all I need to know. Correlated to the under because I expect only 4 runs tops off Nat pitching even in that stadium.
KC -127 u8 even
I know this is the sexy play and the public is overbetting KC due to the avoid the sweep logic, which I don't really buy into, but I've already committed to fading Porcello and backing Sheilds regardless. Always been a huge fan of Shields and never like Porcello. KC has to play it low scoring with their troubles getting on base so I'll take the even money there in a partially correlated bet.
LAA -1.5 -110 1u over 9.5 1u
why not?
SD -102 1u o7.5 +110
Maholm doesn't belong on the mound regardless of how much rest he's on. I'll take my chances on 2 very nice numbers.
This seems like clear value to me. Seattle is buried in the standings behind the best two teams in baseball but all their stats and record suggest that this is very close to a playoff caliber team. Iwakuma is a monster and chavez is a converted reliever who might find the going tough as the innings pile up.
This seems like clear value to me. Seattle is buried in the standings behind the best two teams in baseball but all their stats and record suggest that this is very close to a playoff caliber team. Iwakuma is a monster and chavez is a converted reliever who might find the going tough as the innings pile up.
Really don't care about the record, only care about the ROI so I will be calling this the 8% ROI challenge. Looks like I'm right on schedule.
Made some crappy calls today but I didn't lose any multi-unit wagers, which I'm very happy about. Misjudged the Orioles ability to hit the rookie and took a bad number with KC. Also misjudged public perception on the Rays. Will try and eliminate mistakes tomorrow.
Really don't care about the record, only care about the ROI so I will be calling this the 8% ROI challenge. Looks like I'm right on schedule.
Made some crappy calls today but I didn't lose any multi-unit wagers, which I'm very happy about. Misjudged the Orioles ability to hit the rookie and took a bad number with KC. Also misjudged public perception on the Rays. Will try and eliminate mistakes tomorrow.
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