If you have never read my wagering strategy I encourage you to do so. Whether or not you adopt is it your choice.
MLB 2012 Regular Season: 363-369 +245.87 Units 6.72% ROI
MLB 2012 Playoffs: 12-9-3 +10.29 Units 14.6% ROI
MLB 2012 @ 1 unit per play = +51.23 Net Units
6.28.2013, 1-2, -3.25 Units, -21.7% ROI
YTD – 141-147-28, +65.54 Units, +4.58% ROI
5 & 9 Innings – ALWAYS Specify Pitchers – NO action plays
All plays are 5 Units Flat, unless otherwise noted
Today’s comment: Another example of flat betting not losing much when you do lose. Your longshot fails (Brewers), your only favorite loses (White Sox) and your dog wins and produces a nice profit. Not much damage done to a week that was +21.35 units going in. I am still stumped over the White Sox loss but it was one of those things where your much better chucker got off to a lesser start and his offense couldn’t cover the margin. If I compare Carrasco and Quintana, F5 and to the extent they both went, we get a statistical win and a scoreboard loss. Goofy. The two guys I really feel for yesterday were Harvey and Norris. Two outstanding starts versus tough opponents and both wins blown by the bullpens very late in the games. In my formulas they scored an 84 and a 78.3, respectively, versus the MLB average of 67.8. That is outstanding performance and a good example of why you can not rate pitchers based on W-L record or team results.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
If you have never read my wagering strategy I encourage you to do so. Whether or not you adopt is it your choice.
MLB 2012 Regular Season: 363-369 +245.87 Units 6.72% ROI
MLB 2012 Playoffs: 12-9-3 +10.29 Units 14.6% ROI
MLB 2012 @ 1 unit per play = +51.23 Net Units
6.28.2013, 1-2, -3.25 Units, -21.7% ROI
YTD – 141-147-28, +65.54 Units, +4.58% ROI
5 & 9 Innings – ALWAYS Specify Pitchers – NO action plays
All plays are 5 Units Flat, unless otherwise noted
Today’s comment: Another example of flat betting not losing much when you do lose. Your longshot fails (Brewers), your only favorite loses (White Sox) and your dog wins and produces a nice profit. Not much damage done to a week that was +21.35 units going in. I am still stumped over the White Sox loss but it was one of those things where your much better chucker got off to a lesser start and his offense couldn’t cover the margin. If I compare Carrasco and Quintana, F5 and to the extent they both went, we get a statistical win and a scoreboard loss. Goofy. The two guys I really feel for yesterday were Harvey and Norris. Two outstanding starts versus tough opponents and both wins blown by the bullpens very late in the games. In my formulas they scored an 84 and a 78.3, respectively, versus the MLB average of 67.8. That is outstanding performance and a good example of why you can not rate pitchers based on W-L record or team results.
If a guy uses season to date stats in this one he will come out with the Cardinals looking very good on offense because for a long time they were maintaining a record of 11 or 12 wins every 15 games versus righty starters. I said at the time that if that continued they would run away with the N.L. Central, because wins versus righty are 4 times as important as wins versus lefty. Now the Cardinals have slipped to 2nd in the division and part of the reason is that in the 5 inning game they have won only 6 of their last 15 and their oera is down to 4.1 when it was as high as 7.2 when they were clobbering righties. The A’s are almost the complete opposite, having raised their oera to 6.2 versus a slightly tougher schedule of righties than the Cardinals have been facing. Wainright is tough, but Parkers ratings are on the rise and he has home field with the better offense behind him. The Cardinals are far and away the most popular public betting team this year and that is holding true again today, creating a false favorite.
Reds F5, +100(Leake / Tepesch)
According to my formulas Leake is clearly superior to Tepesch and the Rangers offense is slumping right now, clearly reflected in their 28-48 O/U record. I guess most folks won’t notice they have won only 5 of their last 15 versus righty starters and their oera versus those starters dropped to 2.9. The schedule of righties faced was not in Leake’s class so I can easily compute more success for the Reds offense versus Tepesch. There is another thing to consider and it helps explain the line. Both are very popular betting teams, but home field trumps every time, so the Rangers are holding a higher percentage of their regular backers than are the Reds. When the books opened the line at Rangers -125 they knew that would happen, but larger bets from shaper money have drawn it down.
Cubs F5, +135(Samardzija / Harang)
There weren’t very many folks on the Cubs yesterday but I was one of them and my numbers backed me up. Iwakuma struggled a little early and that is exactly what we needed with a comparable starter and better offense. Thank Heaven the Mariners came back for the FG win because that confirms peoples opinion that the Mariners should win a home game versus the lowly Cubs with Iwakuma on the hill. That will support the nine inning line on the Mariners today and creates a very low undervalued line on the Cubs in the 5 inning game. Samardzija versus Harang with the better matchup offense behind him at -110? You gotta be kidding me. If I made a 5 inning line separate from the 9 the Cubs would be -144.
BOL
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
If a guy uses season to date stats in this one he will come out with the Cardinals looking very good on offense because for a long time they were maintaining a record of 11 or 12 wins every 15 games versus righty starters. I said at the time that if that continued they would run away with the N.L. Central, because wins versus righty are 4 times as important as wins versus lefty. Now the Cardinals have slipped to 2nd in the division and part of the reason is that in the 5 inning game they have won only 6 of their last 15 and their oera is down to 4.1 when it was as high as 7.2 when they were clobbering righties. The A’s are almost the complete opposite, having raised their oera to 6.2 versus a slightly tougher schedule of righties than the Cardinals have been facing. Wainright is tough, but Parkers ratings are on the rise and he has home field with the better offense behind him. The Cardinals are far and away the most popular public betting team this year and that is holding true again today, creating a false favorite.
Reds F5, +100(Leake / Tepesch)
According to my formulas Leake is clearly superior to Tepesch and the Rangers offense is slumping right now, clearly reflected in their 28-48 O/U record. I guess most folks won’t notice they have won only 5 of their last 15 versus righty starters and their oera versus those starters dropped to 2.9. The schedule of righties faced was not in Leake’s class so I can easily compute more success for the Reds offense versus Tepesch. There is another thing to consider and it helps explain the line. Both are very popular betting teams, but home field trumps every time, so the Rangers are holding a higher percentage of their regular backers than are the Reds. When the books opened the line at Rangers -125 they knew that would happen, but larger bets from shaper money have drawn it down.
Cubs F5, +135(Samardzija / Harang)
There weren’t very many folks on the Cubs yesterday but I was one of them and my numbers backed me up. Iwakuma struggled a little early and that is exactly what we needed with a comparable starter and better offense. Thank Heaven the Mariners came back for the FG win because that confirms peoples opinion that the Mariners should win a home game versus the lowly Cubs with Iwakuma on the hill. That will support the nine inning line on the Mariners today and creates a very low undervalued line on the Cubs in the 5 inning game. Samardzija versus Harang with the better matchup offense behind him at -110? You gotta be kidding me. If I made a 5 inning line separate from the 9 the Cubs would be -144.
Maybe if I continued to read I'd see your next post
No big freakin deal, pal. The first two posters passed right over it without saying a word before I got it corrected. Proof that some folks just look quick (Key likes A's, Reds, Cubs), post GL and move on.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
Maybe if I continued to read I'd see your next post
No big freakin deal, pal. The first two posters passed right over it without saying a word before I got it corrected. Proof that some folks just look quick (Key likes A's, Reds, Cubs), post GL and move on.
Not that sure about the Oakland play, maybe 1st 5 will win, but for the game, lean to St.L as Wainwright has a 2.28 era in daytime & St.L has a big winning record against RHP. Like the Cubs 1st 5, also like UN 7.5 in S.D. game & S.D.
Not that sure about the Oakland play, maybe 1st 5 will win, but for the game, lean to St.L as Wainwright has a 2.28 era in daytime & St.L has a big winning record against RHP. Like the Cubs 1st 5, also like UN 7.5 in S.D. game & S.D.
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