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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Thursday's thoughts from the sty
MettaWorldWar send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: MGM Grand |
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#1
Posted: 6/27/2013 10:42:56 AM
Crazy f-ing night last night. went out to get some food with buddies after phillies over cashed. come home to an electrical fire in my bathroom of my apartment. had to call fire dept at midnight luckily caught it early but what a f-ing stress.

probably just going to play my lean from last night the tigers/angels over F5 FG and just get this insurance work started. BOL with your plays today fellas
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#2
Posted: 6/27/2013 11:07:23 AM
Just glad there was no more damage and no one injured! Good Luck to you Metta!
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#3
Posted: 6/27/2013 11:21:34 AM
metta....you are fortunate you came home before it really got started....happy to hear you caught it and got it put out and you werent injured.
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#4
Posted: 6/27/2013 11:25:47 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MettaWorldWar:

Crazy f-ing night last night. went out to get some food with buddies after phillies over cashed. come home to an electrical fire in my bathroom of my apartment. had to call fire dept at midnight luckily caught it early but what a f-ing stress.

probably just going to play my lean from last night the tigers/angels over F5 FG and just get this insurance work started. BOL with your plays today fellas


Sorry to hear that, bud, but glad it wasn't any worse.    I'll probably join you on that but keeping my eye on the weather.  Possible thunderstorms forecasted and don't care to get screwed again by a rain delay.
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#5
Posted: 6/27/2013 11:27:09 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Beowoix:

I have information about sold match in Swedish soccer (Helsingborg – AIK Stockholm). Odd higher than 3.5. Price of information is 300 EUR. You can pay after match.

If you are interested please write to my e-mail:

* I don't know when CoversForum block me again. No service which is sponsored by bookmakers don't like people who give fix-games.

 i wish they would have already phuckin blocked you as all you do is trash up our thread. we dont phuckin need your "sold" games in swedish soccer to make money. get lost douche bag.
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henrymethbreath
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#6
Posted: 6/27/2013 11:30:36 AM
nuts.

glad you caught it. thank goodness it wasn't worse.

stay safe! 
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#7
Posted: 6/27/2013 11:41:41 AM
Just looking at the betting trends, a few games caught my eye...at least initially:

Texas @ NYY:  54% on the over yet line dropped from 9 to 8.5.

Cubs @ Brewers:  76% on the under yet line increased from 8 to 8.5.

Cleve @ Balt: 77% on Balt yet the ML dropped from -135 to -132.

KC @ Minn: 99% on the under yet line increased from 8.5 to 9.  This one really stood out.


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#8
Posted: 6/27/2013 12:01:48 PM
Glad to hear it didn't turn out worse Metta  
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MettaWorldWar send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: MGM Grand |
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#9
Posted: 6/27/2013 12:09:20 PM
thanks fellas for your concerns. definitely thankful was able to catch it early and put some of it out before fire dept came. 

still haven't put in the angels/tigers over bet yet still debating whether to play tigers TT O 4.5 or FG over or both. weaver pitching pretty bad in poor form and bullpen must be tired from all the pitching they had to do yesterday. can't imagine them not lighting up the bullpen for couple runs off frieri, jepsen, maybe buckner. plus asking weaver to go deep while being in poor form since return from injury is definitely not something to look forward too from angels perspective
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#10
Posted: 6/27/2013 12:20:40 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Coach19:

Just looking at the betting trends, a few games caught my eye...at least initially:

Texas @ NYY:  54% on the over yet line dropped from 9 to 8.5.

Cubs @ Brewers:  76% on the under yet line increased from 8 to 8.5.

Cleve @ Balt: 77% on Balt yet the ML dropped from -135 to -132.

KC @ Minn: 99% on the under yet line increased from 8.5 to 9.  This one really stood out.



coach...let me opine on some of these and give my pig headed view of things...
i start with the cubs at brewers.... over the course of the season garza and peralta have been mediocre at best... the cubs have been a solid under team all season due to their offensive ineptitude, and the brewers are a solid over team.. i think the general public are betting on the offensive challenges the cubs face and looking at the fact the cubs are 35-38-3 to the under on the season and thats as far as they look, and in both pitchers last 3 outings they are performing a bit better and under would be a reasonable assumption given the cubs have trouble scoring...the sharps are moving this total higher, though i cant figure out why?? checking each pitchers performance against the other team, they have very low batting averages against, and many players have never faced these pitchers before.....maybe its because peralta has TERRIBLE numbers at home and the sharps think even the cubs will get some runs.... i dont know, after digging through a lot of stuff, i think maybe under 41/2 the first 5 is the way to play this...and you know how each of us feels about playing unders, of any kind...

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#11
Posted: 6/27/2013 12:20:58 PM
In looking at this Tex/NYY game more closely, something just isn't right unless I'm missing something.  Holland has been terrible against the Yanks going 0-5 with an ERA of 8.69 overall and 0-3/7.77 @ Yankee Stadium.  Further, Yanks are 15-9 against LHPs which is second in the MLB.  Enter Phil Hughes who's 0-3 with an ERA of 11.91 his last 3 starts at home and 0-3/11.91 his last 3 v. Texas.  One would think this certainly points to an over (hence now 62% to the over) but why, then, did the total drop from 9 to 8.5?  I realize Hughes is pitching to maintain is spot in the rotation but c-mon.  Am I missing something here?  Even the Yanks TT o3.5 has me perplexed.
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#12
Posted: 6/27/2013 12:27:53 PM
coach....looks like 60-75% chance of rain up and down the east coast....wash, boston, and baltimore....45 % in detroit...as i said last night, limited selection of games and with our recent good streak, maybe a good day to lay low and just take notes...
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#13
Posted: 6/27/2013 12:33:30 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Coach19:

In looking at this Tex/NYY game more closely, something just isn't right unless I'm missing something.  Holland has been terrible against the Yanks going 0-5 with an ERA of 8.69 overall and 0-3/7.77 @ Yankee Stadium.  Further, Yanks are 15-9 against LHPs which is second in the MLB.  Enter Phil Hughes who's 0-3 with an ERA of 11.91 his last 3 starts at home and 0-3/11.91 his last 3 v. Texas.  One would think this certainly points to an over (hence now 62% to the over) but why, then, did the total drop from 9 to 8.5?  I realize Hughes is pitching to maintain is spot in the rotation but c-mon.  Am I missing something here?  Even the Yanks TT o3.5 has me perplexed.

I read that also about both pitchers and kept going back and forth but I think I'm on the over 4 1/2 F5
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#14
Posted: 6/27/2013 12:37:14 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by pigskinpicker:

coach....looks like 60-75% chance of rain up and down the east coast....wash, boston, and baltimore....45 % in detroit...as i said last night, limited selection of games and with our recent good streak, maybe a good day to lay low and just take notes...


I hear ya, Pig, but you know me.  I do this as a hobby and never force plays just for the sake of "action".  At the same time, I enjoy the challenge of solving puzzles (or at least attempting to) and testing different angles and strategies.  These early games I've pointed out certainly present a challenge that I'm willing to take a shot at.  Be back soon with my early plays.
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#15
Posted: 6/27/2013 12:40:41 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Coach19:

In looking at this Tex/NYY game more closely, something just isn't right unless I'm missing something.  Holland has been terrible against the Yanks going 0-5 with an ERA of 8.69 overall and 0-3/7.77 @ Yankee Stadium.  Further, Yanks are 15-9 against LHPs which is second in the MLB.  Enter Phil Hughes who's 0-3 with an ERA of 11.91 his last 3 starts at home and 0-3/11.91 his last 3 v. Texas.  One would think this certainly points to an over (hence now 62% to the over) but why, then, did the total drop from 9 to 8.5?  I realize Hughes is pitching to maintain is spot in the rotation but c-mon.  Am I missing something here?  Even the Yanks TT o3.5 has me perplexed.

i saw that too... might do TEX/NYY F5 over and TEX/NYY FG under .....lol
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#16
Posted: 6/27/2013 12:40:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Coach19:

In looking at this Tex/NYY game more closely, something just isn't right unless I'm missing something.  Holland has been terrible against the Yanks going 0-5 with an ERA of 8.69 overall and 0-3/7.77 @ Yankee Stadium.  Further, Yanks are 15-9 against LHPs which is second in the MLB.  Enter Phil Hughes who's 0-3 with an ERA of 11.91 his last 3 starts at home and 0-3/11.91 his last 3 v. Texas.  One would think this certainly points to an over (hence now 62% to the over) but why, then, did the total drop from 9 to 8.5?  I realize Hughes is pitching to maintain is spot in the rotation but c-mon.  Am I missing something here?  Even the Yanks TT o3.5 has me perplexed.

just saw this trend on another site. in their last 12 games after the total went over in a yankee game, yankees are 11-1 to the under the next game total. also 20-9-1 to the under this season after playing an over
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#17
Posted: 6/27/2013 12:42:46 PM
presently it is 71% over for TEX/NYY FG
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#18
Posted: 6/27/2013 12:47:56 PM
at home , phil hughes has given up 49 hits in 35 innings pitched...and that includes 7 taters..that translates to a 6.69 ERA... the yankees only score 2.14 runs a game for hughes at home...yet hughes O/U record at home is 2-5..60% chance of rain to factor in.... im not touching the " solution to this puzzle"...
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#19
Posted: 6/27/2013 12:57:31 PM
Ok....I'm stepping out for all to ridicule....

Ichiro H+R+RBI o2 (-105)

Good deal of familiarity with Holland having faced him 33 times with decent success.  He's also homered the last two games so there's that potential of a win with one swing of the bat.  Further, hitting in the lead-off spot adds the additional potential of a 4th AB as well as being driven in by the RBI guys in back of him.

Yanks TT o3.5

See my previous post as to Holland's struggles.  I'm a bit leery of the line movement but still feel the Yanks can plate at least 4 today.
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#20
Posted: 6/27/2013 12:59:41 PM
any bet on the other early game ??? DET/ LAA??
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#21
Posted: 6/27/2013 1:02:33 PM
Adding....

Det TT o4.5

Something's just not right with Jared Weaver his last 3 starts compiling an 0-3 record with a 6.62 ERA.  Has he since figured it out?  Maybe, but this Tiger lineup can rake and has had success against Weaver in the past.
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#22
Posted: 6/27/2013 1:14:49 PM
one play for the pig man today, and thats phil corbin and the snakes on the road at the nats...several reasons why...
exhibit # 1 snakes are 14-1 with corbin on the bump, while the bats are 6-8 with stras on the hill
exhibit # 2 when corbin takes the mound ON THE ROAD the snakes score an avg of 7.14 runs while allowing only 2.86..... which fits nicely into
exhibit # 3... when stras pitches the nats just cant score..getting him at home 2.50 runs while allowing a mere 2.83...
exhibit # 4 washington is only hitting lefties at a 212 clip on the season, improving slightly to 220 at home vs lefties..
i see this frustrating trend continuing where the nats cant score against corbin, a very good lefty and the snakes scratch out just enough to win F 5.... and with both bullpens being solid, though the nats is a bit better.....a lean to snakes full game, but snakes + 130 F 5 is my only play for today. i might find something juicy for tonight, but thats it for now..

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#23
Posted: 6/27/2013 1:28:28 PM
trying to adapt percentages to identify play quality. here's this am. small wager.

TEX NYY
NYY showing a -215 projected line, and a whopping 36% difference at 114. TEX showing a 101 projected line, and a 14% difference at -136. 

Not keen on Hughes or Detriots' expected propensity to oscillate around .500 baseball on the road. I'm taking this strictly based on NYY home + money.

NYY ML FG
NYY U FG 8.5

LAA DET
LAA showing a projected -134 on the road. 26% difference at 136. DET showing a projected line of -104. 16% difference at -136.

Same rule: Plus money bet at significant (TBD) PLUS difference for LAA.

LAA ML FG
LAA O FG 8.5

again. minute wagers, guys. this is for the sake of tuning this person into a legitimate workhorse. my money is at stake, albeit minimally; i'm not jerking around.

(based strictly on line capping, my assertion is that the NYY ML loses, the under hits, and both the LAA ML and LAA O hit) 
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#24
Posted: 6/27/2013 1:33:41 PM
please note. I'm working on getting my statiscal trackign error tuned in.

i need a few weeks of actual data. but, in the mean time, no pun intended, I'll be working on developing the error tracking pieces and trying to make envelope calculation assertions otherwise.

i'm planning for this to become dangerous. i'm excited to see how it goes, and more than willing to incur the minute losses at the onset. 
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#25
Posted: 6/27/2013 2:04:19 PM
Adding....

Cubs/Brewers o9 FG

This is strictly a wager trend analysis play which have been rather profitable lately.  79% is on the under which is a rather substantial number.  However, the total has now jumped a full point or 12.5% which is also rather substantial.  Thus, I'm banking that somebody a hell of a lot smarter than me knows something I don't.
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