It's no secret that Matt Cain has struggled this season but he had a strong performance last week at Arizona allowing just 1 run in 7 innings. He has also allowed 2 runs or less in 5 of his last 7 starts. The two mediocre starts were at St. Louis and at Colorado, so struggling against those teams on the road isn't unusual for any pitcher. In the last 5 years versus Pittsburgh Matt Cain has been almost perfect with a sub 1.50 ERA. Additionally, the Pirates individual batting averages versus Matt Cain are horrible as you can see below.
Russell Martin .294 (34 AB) Gaby Sanchez .143 (14 AB) Garrett Jones .267 (15 AB) Josh Harrison .000 (3 AB) Neil Walker .167 (6 AB) Brandon Inge .000 (3 AB) Pedro Alvarez .000 (5 AB) Clint Barmes .056 (18 AB) Alex Presley .000 (4 AB) Andrew McCutchen .077 (13 AB)
For the Pirates, Charlie Morton will make his season debut returning off of the DL after major elbow surgery. He will be on a limited pitch count and should be a little rusty with this being his first start of the season. Historically, the Giants are usually favorites on the road with Matt Cain on the bump, unless of course, he is facing a good team with a equally as talented a pitcher. That isn't the case tonight with Charlie Morton. The Giants line up is a little depleted but that's not enough for Vegas to open this game at -105/-105. San Francisco and Matt Cain should have opened as a mild favorite (-120 to -130). The public has also moved the line on the Giants about 10c since the open which gives us an opportunity to bet against the public, which is never a bad idea. At the time of posting the wagering tickets show us that the Giants have 88% on the RL and 67% on the ML. I'll take my shot here with the Pirates.
It's no secret that Matt Cain has struggled this season but he had a strong performance last week at Arizona allowing just 1 run in 7 innings. He has also allowed 2 runs or less in 5 of his last 7 starts. The two mediocre starts were at St. Louis and at Colorado, so struggling against those teams on the road isn't unusual for any pitcher. In the last 5 years versus Pittsburgh Matt Cain has been almost perfect with a sub 1.50 ERA. Additionally, the Pirates individual batting averages versus Matt Cain are horrible as you can see below.
Russell Martin .294 (34 AB) Gaby Sanchez .143 (14 AB) Garrett Jones .267 (15 AB) Josh Harrison .000 (3 AB) Neil Walker .167 (6 AB) Brandon Inge .000 (3 AB) Pedro Alvarez .000 (5 AB) Clint Barmes .056 (18 AB) Alex Presley .000 (4 AB) Andrew McCutchen .077 (13 AB)
For the Pirates, Charlie Morton will make his season debut returning off of the DL after major elbow surgery. He will be on a limited pitch count and should be a little rusty with this being his first start of the season. Historically, the Giants are usually favorites on the road with Matt Cain on the bump, unless of course, he is facing a good team with a equally as talented a pitcher. That isn't the case tonight with Charlie Morton. The Giants line up is a little depleted but that's not enough for Vegas to open this game at -105/-105. San Francisco and Matt Cain should have opened as a mild favorite (-120 to -130). The public has also moved the line on the Giants about 10c since the open which gives us an opportunity to bet against the public, which is never a bad idea. At the time of posting the wagering tickets show us that the Giants have 88% on the RL and 67% on the ML. I'll take my shot here with the Pirates.
So...... you're disregarding all the facts about taking sf
And instead saying "Vegas messed up on the open so pitt has to be the right side? "
Interesting. ... very interesting
In a nutshell, yes. Not saying Vegas messed up but rather the even opening number suggests a Giants (Matt Cain) wager so I will go against the conventional wisdom in this matchup.
So...... you're disregarding all the facts about taking sf
And instead saying "Vegas messed up on the open so pitt has to be the right side? "
Interesting. ... very interesting
In a nutshell, yes. Not saying Vegas messed up but rather the even opening number suggests a Giants (Matt Cain) wager so I will go against the conventional wisdom in this matchup.
whats your point on o/u? this writer favour under & SF win but if you took Pitts would u do the same with u/o and take over?
I think the total is about right at 7.5 and I really don't have an opinion either way. Certain pitching numbers with both starters favor the under and the offensive numbers recently for both teams favor the over. The total opening at 7.5 doesn't suggest a wager for either the over or under.
whats your point on o/u? this writer favour under & SF win but if you took Pitts would u do the same with u/o and take over?
I think the total is about right at 7.5 and I really don't have an opinion either way. Certain pitching numbers with both starters favor the under and the offensive numbers recently for both teams favor the over. The total opening at 7.5 doesn't suggest a wager for either the over or under.
your write up was spot on...you got to trust your insticts...
Cain coming off his best start of season..one run 4 hit outing on road in Arizona..his metrics trending up..Morton is now 19 and 38 with a 5 era in 74 starts for pitt...
It was sharp money that drove giants line up and sharps were rewarded with an easy win...
your write up was spot on...you got to trust your insticts...
Cain coming off his best start of season..one run 4 hit outing on road in Arizona..his metrics trending up..Morton is now 19 and 38 with a 5 era in 74 starts for pitt...
It was sharp money that drove giants line up and sharps were rewarded with an easy win...
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