Quote Originally Posted by tmoss387:
good work yesterday shrimpy, looks like a nice card today... here are a couple i looked at, let me know your thoughts...
i like the etsu play, but how about the under there also, both teams saved their ace for today, 10' looks like an under
i like the dogs to keep barking today, valpo, austin peay, and miami among others... how about arkansas ? i know they cant hit, but they have stanek going today...
lastly, 8' for the kansas st total ? they played a 20-11 game yesterday, what gives
Valpo's loss yesterday was just crushing. I was expecting to be on them today (expecting a loss yesterday), but with the way they lost, I'm not putting my $$ on a bunch of college kids. Not confident they bounce back as well as their underlying talent/numbers indicate the value.
The ETSU total... see yesterday's FSU/Savannah st game for why I think value is on the ML instead of the under (Sav St's ace is comparable to ETSU's). GT's got bats. If you are banking on ETSU's ace showing up with his A game, then the +175 ML is more attractive than the -160 juice on the under (at least in my book). If he doesn't, the fact that ETSU can also put up runs, and that GT's already thrown their ace doesn't bode well for an under. Staying far away from this one.
Re: Arkansas - Stanek is obviously a beast. I think the ML could be decent value. WSU used all sorts of arms yesterday and none brought even their C game. Like the over better but did consider the ML.
Re: Dogs in general, need to pick your spots. 15 1 seeds won yesterday. Historically, about 11 1-seeds will make it out of their regional. You can get some excellent underdog prices in college baseball, but in the early slate of games, I saw very few worth a second look. Dogs barked yesterday. Today's the overreaction from the books.
Re: Games starting after 3pm, haven't capped them yet as I was heavy on some French Open action this morning and it hasn't all ended yet.