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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: Money Ball and KEYMetrics, Wednesday 10.03.12
KeyElement
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#1
Posted: 10/3/2012 10:59:28 AM

YTD: 363-369-37, +245.87 Units, 6.72% ROI

There was an unintentional error in the record yesterday. I think I left the daily numbers in the spreadsheet column when I copied the numbers for the YTD record. Sorry about that, but we are back to correct today. I double checked to be sure.

Tuesday, 3-4, +2.3 Units, (ah, the power of the underdog!)

The Week: 4-8-1, -12.85 Units

All plays, unless otherwise noted, are for a FLAT 5 Units, Do NOT “add the juice”

Yesterday si1ly accused me of having a rather large set of gonads and I thank him for the compliment, but if the numbers are there maybe it really doesn’t take a large set to go against false favorites. We must never forget the true description of a favorite. They are the team the public favors to win a game, which may or may not be true on any given day. If the favorite were always “the better team” as so many bettors still believe, they would win more than the 57% they traditionally come in at. At the elite professional level of any sport, the teams are never as weak as the public believes. That is why true probability and risk/reward factors (elements) are so important to me.

This being the last day of the regular season and there being five games of importance, I have decided to give an opinion and thumbnail analysis of each. I may or may not have a pick on all or none as we go along, but I will give a side and total lean if not. Be back in a few with the Phillies-Nationals opinion, now that lines are opening and settling in. It does no good to project overnight lines you may or may or may not be able get now.

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#2
Posted: 10/3/2012 11:03:48 AM
Thank you Key!
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#3
Posted: 10/3/2012 11:08:11 AM
Sounds good. Maybe some analysis on Atlanta at +130 while starting prado, mccan, heyward, bourn, freeman, uggla? I know not necessarily a game of importance but wouldn't their be good value on ATL? 
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#4
Posted: 10/3/2012 11:31:57 AM
  always value your opinions 
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KeyElement
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#5
Posted: 10/3/2012 11:32:14 AM

Lean Phillies +? (Lee / Jackson)

The line here opened at -137 as the books expected a lot of “they need the win, and are the better team, at home” money, but they got whacked immediately by the sharps, as I suspected they would, so I got in early too. Now I have to recommend a little patience as the line is +108 and still falling, but I suspect it will go up as the public plays the Nationals at what they feel is a low price. Reality check – Cliff Lee is a competitor to the Nth degree, no let up, no mercy, and is in outstanding shape and form. Right now his KeyMetrics put him in the Cy Young Candidate class, and that is far and away better than Edwin Jackson reached at his peak, a few games ago. Sorry I couldn’t get the post up quicker, but it is better to pass on a play than take the far lesser value. If the line climbs back up to +115 I will re post with a suggestion to play, but I doubt it is going to get there.

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#6
Posted: 10/3/2012 11:41:55 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TurnstoneMoney:

Sounds good. Maybe some analysis on Atlanta at +130 while starting prado, mccan, heyward, bourn, freeman, uggla? I know not necessarily a game of importance but wouldn't their be good value on ATL? 
I am sorry, but regardless of who is starting the Braves offense has just disappeared. I honestly think they need to regroup for the playoffs and probably won't have intense focus for this game. On the other hand, both the Pirates and Burnett and doing everything they can to salvage a very good season where they just ran out of gas a little early. No pressure, fast and loose, go out a winner. That being said, I also will not lay juice with the Pirates, so I am off that game. BOL if you play it.
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#7
Posted: 10/3/2012 11:43:44 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by KeyElement:

I am sorry, but regardless of who is starting the Braves offense has just disappeared. I honestly think they need to regroup for the playoffs and probably won't have intense focus for this game. On the other hand, both the Pirates and Burnett and doing everything they can to salvage a very good season where they just ran out of gas a little early. No pressure, fast and loose, go out a winner. That being said, I also will not lay juice with the Pirates, so I am off that game. BOL if you play it.

I won't be but thanks Key. 
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#8
Posted: 10/3/2012 11:53:06 AM
Thanks Key. Great season!!
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#9
Posted: 10/3/2012 11:54:25 AM

Can't wait.

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#10
Posted: 10/3/2012 12:01:58 PM
GL, mate.
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#11
Posted: 10/3/2012 12:04:55 PM
Thank you for your contribution to the forum all season long. 
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#12
Posted: 10/3/2012 12:09:33 PM

Lean Oakland Athletics (Dempster / Griffin)

Once again I am sorry but the sharps (imho) have whacked the correct side, dropping the line from +100 to -112, and this one is just too close to play anywhere near even money. Pitching edge to Griffin, offense to the Rangers, but when push comes to shove and the immovable object is hit by the irresistible force I have to side with the superior pitching. A month ago noone would have guessed the Rangers would wind up in the A.L. Wild Card game, but today that is exactly the way I see it. I suppose a lot of folks will also consider home field advantage and momentum and those are certainly on the side of the A’s but the KeyMetrics still indicate only a slight advantage and not one I am willing to lay juice with.

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#13
Posted: 10/3/2012 12:11:15 PM
your thread is a must read every day.. I will be following you from opening day next April@!
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#14
Posted: 10/3/2012 12:19:45 PM
You are correct as good pitching will usually derail good hitting and TX just does not seem to be hitting.  The way Balfour struck out Beltre and Cruz to end the ninth and the great defensive play to throw out Hamilton, kinda inspiring.  TX is a kind of quirky team, sometimes they hit and sometimes they lose.  NYY kills today IMO.  But as you say perception,  it is all about perception.
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#15
Posted: 10/3/2012 12:26:14 PM
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#16
Posted: 10/3/2012 12:48:06 PM

Lean Yankees (Matsuzaka / Kuroda)

-325 looks like a ridiculously high line intended to keep money off the Yankees in a near “lock” game, and perhaps it is, but if Bob McCune were still alive he could make a great case for the -325 being a value line. How? Why? Because Bob, using KeyMetric numbers, would land on a 94% probability of a Yankee win at Yankee Stadium with this matchup, in this situation, and that would more than justify the line. At -325 the Yankees need a 76.47% probability of success to pass the break even point, so 94% allows a lot of margin for profitability. Now, the average bettor that plays $20 a game and “adds the juice” is going to soil his diaper and lose his mind at the thought of wagering $65 to make $20, so he backs off. This is where flat unit wagering enters the picture. If the same person wagers just $20 he will receive only $6.15 profit should the Yankees win. So, what the heck is wrong with 31% profit in a matter of a few hours? You got any other investments doing that well?

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#17
Posted: 10/3/2012 1:12:52 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by KeyElement:

Lean Oakland Athletics (Dempster / Griffin)

Once again I am sorry but the sharps (imho) have whacked the correct side, dropping the line from +100 to -112, and this one is just too close to play anywhere near even money. Pitching edge to Griffin, offense to the Rangers, but when push comes to shove and the immovable object is hit by the irresistible force I have to side with the superior pitching. A month ago noone would have guessed the Rangers would wind up in the A.L. Wild Card game, but today that is exactly the way I see it. I suppose a lot of folks will also consider home field advantage and momentum and those are certainly on the side of the A’s but the KeyMetrics still indicate only a slight advantage and not one I am willing to lay juice with.



doesnt dumpster have a pretty good era if he is not going against laa?
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#18
Posted: 10/3/2012 2:07:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by KeyElement:

Lean Yankees (Matsuzaka / Kuroda)

-325 looks like a ridiculously high line intended to keep money off the Yankees in a near “lock” game, and perhaps it is, but if Bob McCune were still alive he could make a great case for the -325 being a value line. How? Why? Because Bob, using KeyMetric numbers, would land on a 94% probability of a Yankee win at Yankee Stadium with this matchup, in this situation, and that would more than justify the line. At -325 the Yankees need a 76.47% probability of success to pass the break even point, so 94% allows a lot of margin for profitability. Now, the average bettor that plays $20 a game and “adds the juice” is going to soil his diaper and lose his mind at the thought of wagering $65 to make $20, so he backs off. This is where flat unit wagering enters the picture. If the same person wagers just $20 he will receive only $6.15 profit should the Yankees win. So, what the heck is wrong with 31% profit in a matter of a few hours? You got any other investments doing that well?


94% is a pretty Bawlsy number to put on the Yankees.  I see Kuroda with a 5.22 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in the last 30 days. DiceK has a 13.03 ERA and 2.28 WHIP -- yeah those #s are atrocious, but I don't see Kuroda with any kind of massive edge... Pedroia is back and the red sox will be fighting with any ounce of pride they have left in this shitty season to KO the Yanks into a tie with the Os for first place.  Maybe 75% chance to win, but 94%?


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#19
Posted: 10/3/2012 2:21:06 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 730champ:



doesnt dumpster have a pretty good era if he is not going against laa?
That is a consideration but KeyMetrics is an evaluation method that points to probable performance on a given day versus a given offense. If you start granting credit that way do you not have to throw out Griffin's two worst performances (both on the road) and wind up at nearly the same probability? We can sometimes over compute these things and reach no conclusions at all.
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#20
Posted: 10/3/2012 2:27:39 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Season:


94% is a pretty Bawlsy number to put on the Yankees.  I see Kuroda with a 5.22 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in the last 30 days. DiceK has a 13.03 ERA and 2.28 WHIP -- yeah those #s are atrocious, but I don't see Kuroda with any kind of massive edge... Pedroia is back and the red sox will be fighting with any ounce of pride they have left in this shitty season to KO the Yanks into a tie with the Os for first place.  Maybe 75% chance to win, but 94%?


I might buy the pride angle if I thought the Red Sox had any, or any confidence behind Matsuzaka. I don't think they have either at this point, maybe yesterday behind Lester, but now they just want to get it over with and get their vacations started. Since they couldn't compete with the Blue Jays or Rays down the stretch where do they get all this inspiration today? Once they hit the beaches and golf courses they don't much care what the Yankees or Orioles do.
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#21
Posted: 10/3/2012 2:29:56 PM
Bol today buddy...
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#22
Posted: 10/3/2012 2:33:39 PM
Good Luck!
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#23
Posted: 10/3/2012 2:43:21 PM
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#24
Posted: 10/3/2012 2:43:32 PM

Lean Orioles (Tillman / Hellickson)

Not much to say about this one except that he line is right where it should be. Like most of these games today it should be a good one to watch, but not much of a wagering edge either way.

Lean Cardinals (Bailey / Miller)

I don’t have enough form on Shelby Miller in a starters role to back him but I do feel Bailey does not have the offensive backing to be a -143 favorite. It is also possible the Reds lose a little attitude if the Nationals hold on versus the Phillies and secure Home field advantage. It is also possible the Reds change strategy at that point, sit Bailey, etal., and just play it out. Too many unknowns for me.  

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#25
Posted: 10/3/2012 3:03:07 PM

Only Play Of The Day

5 & 9 Innings

Royals (RL) -.5, +100 F5, (ML) -132 FG (Marte / Mendoza)

Granted Marte is an unknown but I have some KeyMetrics that apply to Mendoza that look very good at this time. Another factor I like is that I can’t imagine any team wanting to get it over with, get on the plane, and get out of town more that the Tigers. As a team, the Royals have never quit and are very confident of their future. Mendoza plans to be a part of that future and he and his teammates will continue to lay the groundwork tonight. Good luck to Miggy on the final stats though, he deserves that triple crown and I think baseball as an institution and us as fans would like to see them a little more often than every 45 years. Long drought. It would be great to see it in the same year that pitchers tallied up 7 no-nos, including 3 perfectos. If the game truly belongs to the fans, give them more of what they love to see.

BOL

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