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Author:	[MLB Betting] Topic: Monday Night - MLB
si1ly	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: Oct 2008 Posts: 12061 Location: Florida	#1 Posted: 8/6/2012 6:15:20 PM '10-11 NBA: 90-67 (57.3%) +19.90u '10-11 NBA-P: 30-16 (65.2%) +18.25u '10-11 NCAAB: 8-1 (88.9%) +7.90u '10-11 NHL-P: 11-4 (73.3%) +7.00u '10-11 MLB: 97-66 (59.8%) +31.61u '10-11 MLB-P: 9-3 (75.0%) +9.22u '11-12 NCAAF: 16-21 (43.2%) -7.40u '11-12 NCAAF-P: 9-6 (60.0%) +1.65u '11-12 NFL: 42-35 (54.5%) +5.05u '11-12 NFL-P: 5-5 (50.0%) -0.40u '11-12 NCAAB: 9-3 (75.0%) +5.70u '11-12 NCAAB-P: 5-3 (62.5%) +1.60u '11-12 NBA: 77-80 (49.0%) -13.28u '11-12 NBA-P: 23-20 (53.2%) +2.30u '11-12 NHL-P: 2-1 (66.6%) +1.10u '11-12 MLB: 76-48-4 (61.6%) +22.13u 7:05 EST - Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Indians Under 8.5 (-105) 7:05 EST - Arizona Diamondbacks (-115) 8:10 EST - Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers Under 8.5 (-110) 8:15 EST - St. Louis Cardinals (-115)
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kaynem	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Feb 2012 Posts: 28 Location: Massachusetts	#2 Posted: 8/6/2012 6:17:45 PM wow big card today silly. you must be feeling good about all of them.
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Tron830	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Rookie Joined: Apr 2012 Posts: 558 Location: Illinois	#3 Posted: 8/6/2012 6:17:58 PM With you on Arizona, also took reds in a parlay. might chase with you later games depending on how things are looking. GL
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amd	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Hall of Fame Joined: Jan 2008 Posts: 27544 Location: Michigan	#4 Posted: 8/6/2012 6:18:19 PM I just made a thread asking if anyone was on the Cards and you are the first poster I've seen. I like them too as a small fave
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si1ly	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: Oct 2008 Posts: 12061 Location: Florida	#5 Posted: 8/6/2012 6:18:24 PM I don't usually play cards this big. But I like what I see. It's a new week. Time to put yesterday's bad news behind me. In fact, I'm going to wipe my behind with it and hand it to my bookie in the form of a 4-0 sweep tonight. Let's go.
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keepitstrict	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports \|
All-Star Joined: Nov 2009 Posts: 11113 Location: Ontario	#6 Posted: 8/6/2012 6:20:28 PM
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bluexlazy	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Oct 2005 Posts: 85 Location: United States	#7 Posted: 8/6/2012 6:20:30 PM Good Luck
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si1ly	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: Oct 2008 Posts: 12061 Location: Florida	#8 Posted: 8/6/2012 6:21:08 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by amd: I just made a thread asking if anyone was on the Cards and you are the first poster I've seen. I like them too as a small fave My model has the Cards at -157 with a 61.1% chance to win. Cain is overrated on the road and a big reason for the line value is the offensive discrepancy. Cards rank #2 against righties and the G-men rank #25. With two pretty evenly matched starting pitchers, I'll take the offensive juggernaut home team at basically pick'em odds. Forget about Cain's perfect game. Without AT&T to catch his fly balls, he's just an average Joe that can't keep the ball on the ground.
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tinfoils	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Legend Joined: Jun 2002 Posts: 34952 Location:	#9 Posted: 8/6/2012 6:24:31 PM Good luck si1ly!
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si1ly	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: Oct 2008 Posts: 12061 Location: Florida	#10 Posted: 8/6/2012 6:26:25 PM Arroyo and Gallardo are both righties and will be facing line-ups that each have 8 right handers and only 1 lefty. Gallado ranks #26 in my database against righties with a 23.7% K-rate, 6.6% BB-rate, .226 BA and 3.26 xFIP. Arroyo doesn't rank as high, but still boasts a 19.8% K-rate, 4.4% B-rate, .223 BA and 4.06 xFIP. Both starting pitchers can take command of these line-ups. Also the line on the Brewers at -130 suggests that Cincinnati will struggle at the plate tonight. Reds have the #2 ranked bullpen after Arroyo exits and Milwaukee at #18 isn't as bad as they get credit for. This under bet is about pitching splits and line-ups.
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VietBlonde	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Rookie Joined: Mar 2010 Posts: 681 Location: California	#11 Posted: 8/6/2012 6:27:42 PM Posted: 8/6/2012 3:18:24 PM POSTED BY MASTER si1ly!!! I don't usually play cards this big. But I like what I see. It's a new week. Time to put yesterday's bad news behind me. In fact, I'm going to wipe my behind with it and hand it to my bookie in the form of a 4-0 sweep tonight. Let's go. lol...but I like the sound of that MASTER si1ly! As always, I'm on board!!! P.S. Keep the rolling in MASTER si1ly!!!
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si1ly	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: Oct 2008 Posts: 12061 Location: Florida	#12 Posted: 8/6/2012 6:28:21 PM These are my thoughts on the D-Backs game from my breakdown sheets thread. I apologize if you've already read them. Skip to the next post. Wade Miley has the 8th best WAR, 6th best SIERA and the best tERA over the last 30 days among 112 qualified starters. He has a K% of 24.0% and an amazingly low walk rate of only 2.9%. That puts him among the likes of guys like King Felix, Clayton Kershaw, David Price. The Diamondbacks rank #2 in the MLB against lefties and Bedard isn't a very good one at that. Advantage in starting pitching, total offense, bullpen and even slightly in fielding. The only thing the Pirates have in this game is home field advantage and I don't think that's worth much next to what Arizona is bringing to the table. This line shouldn't have opened any lower than -130. At the risk of falling for something too good to be true, I'm taking Arizona at this ridiculously cheap price relative to my numbers. I've got the Diamondbacks at -151 with a 60.1% chance to win. I use advanced stats to determine those power rankings. These are just some of the numbers and their relative position that go into that #18 ranking against lefties: 21.2% K-rate (#21), 8.6% B-rate (#11), -3.0 wRAA (#16), .157 ISO (#14). You're correct that they are better against lefties than their overall season averages. But that doesn't make them much better relative to other teams in the MLB. They're pretty much in the middle of the pack for the major offensive splits sabrmetrics and that's why they receive a #18 ranking. Just below average. This doesn't hurt them much, but when you put that next to Arizona who has numbers that look like this: 19.2% K-rate (#10), 8.8% BB-rate (#8), +30.3 wRAA (#2), .192 ISO (#1)... it's easy to see that the Diamondback have a measurable offensive advantage today. This same advantage is mirrored in both team's full season averages as well - which have Arizona at #8 and Pittsburgh at #23. I don't think Bedard's 18 K's in his last two starts is an indication that he's pitching well (which by the way were both against Chicago, the second worst hitting team against lefties in the majors). In the 4 games prior to that - where he saw similar competition to what he'll face tonight - he had 14 K's and 11 BB's and averaged 7 hits and 1 home run per game. That's the type of pitcher I expect to see tonight.. he's not capable of pitching a gem. To me, the data indicates the Pirates have been over-performing. Their home record doesn't me nearly as much as what the SABRmetrics say about their true colors. I trust in my numbers. Good luck on your plays tonight, thanks for the input.
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buffalo11	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: Mirage \|
Captain Joined: Mar 2011 Posts: 8490 Location: New York	#13 Posted: 8/6/2012 6:28:27 PM with ya on the cards, lets go!!
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clem1	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Jul 2011 Posts: 204 Location:	#14 Posted: 8/6/2012 6:29:28 PM my minny line down to 8 - would you still play -thnx
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BJaRz	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Oct 2008 Posts: 2409 Location: New York	#15 Posted: 8/6/2012 6:30:16 PM
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si1ly	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: Oct 2008 Posts: 12061 Location: Florida	#16 Posted: 8/6/2012 6:32:25 PM Finally, the Twins @ Indians under is about line value. My model has this game at 6.81 total runs. With 9 needed to lose, there are 2.19 runs of value off the losing number with 7 and 8 both winners. The Twins rank #14 offensively versus right handers and have never faced McAllister before. The Indians - who have way too many lefties in the lineup - rank #25 against lefties on he season and were taken for a complete game shutout last time they faced Diamond. They also rank last in total offense and second to last in power hitting over the last 7 games. Cleveland is a pitchers park and even though both bullpens are below average, I liked the full game under 8.5 a little more than the first 5 under 4.5 which was juiced at -120 at my place. If you can get first 5 under 4.5 at -110, I would consider that play as well.
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Edgewoodzgimp13	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Apr 2012 Posts: 109 Location:	#17 Posted: 8/6/2012 6:32:49 PM I like your write up about the Reds u 8.5 but do you feel you should play the 1st 5 on that. The Brewers BP screwed you hard last week. I think I feel more confident there.
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Junior316	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: May 2012 Posts: 128 Location: Canada	#18 Posted: 8/6/2012 6:34:18 PM You're gonna sweep tonight
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DaMarksman7490	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: Sportingbet.com \|
Prospect Joined: Aug 2011 Posts: 81 Location: New York	#19 Posted: 8/6/2012 6:35:04 PM
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si1ly	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: Oct 2008 Posts: 12061 Location: Florida	#20 Posted: 8/6/2012 6:35:11 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by clem1: my minny line down to 8 - would you still play -thnx Wouldn't be as comfortable with it at that number because 8 is no longer a winner, but as far as line value off the losing number, you're getting the same deal as the rest of us. I guess the downwards line movement can be seen as a good thing, the oddsmakers are shading the under in a match-up that almost always sees totals at 8.5...9... or higher. Are you getting -105 or +100 at that number at least? I say go for it.
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si1ly	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: Oct 2008 Posts: 12061 Location: Florida	#21 Posted: 8/6/2012 6:38:42 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Edgewoodzgimp13: I like your write up about the Reds u 8.5 but do you feel you should play the 1st 5 on that. The Brewers BP screwed you hard last week. I think I feel more confident there. I looked at the first 5 as well in this game, but I had a gut feeling that scared me off so I'm going to push my luck on the full game. Hopefully the Reds bullpen offsets how poor the Brewers BP has been pitching lately. First 5 under looks good on paper, so I can't tell you any more than I had a bad feeling about it. If you're more confident in skipping out on the bullpens, be my guest. As long as I don't congratulate you in the top of the 6th while I watch a grand slam send it over in the 8th. Haha good luck!
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eyemtlaw	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Jan 2011 Posts: 1266 Location: California	#22 Posted: 8/6/2012 6:43:43 PM In it with you! You have helped me through this season. Love having positive units. Keep staying disciplined and lets hit that 30 unit mark!!
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SJSharks99	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Captain Joined: Jan 2008 Posts: 9039 Location: California	#23 Posted: 8/6/2012 6:49:51 PM Solid card... Bol
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si1ly	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: Oct 2008 Posts: 12061 Location: Florida	#24 Posted: 8/6/2012 7:19:12 PM Game time! Good luck tonight everyone!
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Pasteur	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: 5Dimes \|
Veteran Joined: Jul 2012 Posts: 1887 Location: North Carolina	#25 Posted: 8/6/2012 7:23:21 PM Good luck tonight silly! I think you're gonna kill it
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